A long to-do list

After a very messy month in British politics, the UK could have its next prime minister as soon as today.The question is how quickly — or in [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( After a very messy month in British politics, the UK could have its next prime minister as soon as today. The question is how quickly — or indeed whether — that person can restore order to a ruling Conservative Party beset by bruising public sniping. Key reading: - [Sunak Edges Closer to UK Leadership Prize as Johnson Caves]( - [Path to PM: Sunak Collects Key Endorsements]( - [Truss’s Flop Carries Price Tag for UK Economy, BE Forecasts Show]( - [UK Can’t Shake Pound Negativity After Weeks of Political Chaos]( - [UK Businesses Say Political Turmoil Is Intensifying Recession]( Liz Truss’s resignation as premier after only 44 days amid a backlash over her low tax economic plan triggered a speedy one-week race to choose the new Tory leader and prime minister. Her predecessor, Boris Johnson, announced last night he’s not running. He’d flirted with seeking a return to 10 Downing Street even though he was essentially forced to resign, embroiled in scandal. Rishi Sunak, who was Johnson’s finance minister until an acrimonious split, is well in front — he has breezed through the 100 Tory lawmaker endorsements required for candidacy. Former staunch allies of Johnson’s have backed him. All eyes now are on whether House of Commons leader Penny Mordaunt, the only other declared candidate, can pick up enough support from Johnson’s backers. She’s trailing with around 30 public endorsements, though her campaign insists she has more. In just a few hours we will find out whether that’s the case. If she fails to get over the threshold, Sunak becomes prime minister. If she makes it, there will be a vote tonight among Tory lawmakers. Depending on how close that vote is, the decision may then be handed to the party membership — less than 200,000 people — in an online ballot with the results on Friday. Whoever wins faces a daunting in-tray: The party has descended into civil war, public support has fallen to a record low and Truss’s failed fiscal package has driven up borrowing costs. That will force her successor to make politically unpopular spending cuts to calm financial markets. It’s a Herculean task. — [Ellen Milligan]( Sunak and Truss during the Conservative Party leadership announcement won by Truss in London on Sept. 5. Photographer: Stefan Rousseau/AFP/Getty Images Click [here]( to follow Bloomberg Politics on Facebook and if you’re enjoying this newsletter, click [here]( to sign up for Balance of Power. Global Headlines Complete control | Chinese President Xi Jinping vowed to further open the world’s second-biggest economy and stay [connected]( with the rest of the globe. After securing a third term at a twice-a-decade shuffle of Communist Party leaders that stacked China’s most powerful bodies with his allies, Xi has ensured he’ll be around to see those pledges through. - Chinese stocks tumbled and the yuan [plunged](, a rebuke of Xi’s move to surround himself with loyalists. - China won’t have a [woman]( sitting on its Politburo for the first time in 25 years. - [Read our special newsletter round-up]( of the party congress. Bomb warning | The US, UK and France [rejected]( Russia’s allegation that Ukraine is preparing to use a “dirty bomb” on its own territory, which involves conventional explosives spreading radioactive material. They urged Moscow not to use the claim as a pretext to escalate a war that’s entering its ninth month, saying the world would “see through” any attempt to do so. - Romanian Defense Minister Vasile Dincu [resigned]( after public statements implying that Ukraine may have to cede territory to Russia in any talks aimed at ending the war. - Oil traders, tanker companies and the world’s most powerful governments are increasingly [fixated]( on one question: can the supply chain handle the harshest sanctions on Russian exports in history? China’s exports to many of its largest trade markets contracted in September, more [evidence of a slowdown]( in global demand. Trade was a reliable source of growth for China during the pandemic but is quickly losing momentum as demand wanes and fears of a recession ripple across the US and Europe. US Midterms Latest - [Cheney Says Trump Can’t Turn Jan. 6 Testimony Into ‘Circus’]( - [Biden Tells Concerned Voters He’s in Good Health Ahead of 2024]( - [Pelosi Says No Regrets on Covid Aid That GOP Links to Inflation]( - [Republicans Retain Poll Lead on Economy Heading Into US Midterms]( Border shots | South Korea’s military fired [warning shots]( after a North Korean vessel crossed a nautical border. Pyongyang responded by firing about 10 artillery shells less than two hours later toward a South Korean ship. The exchange adds to recent incidents along one of the world’s most militarized boundaries and comes as the US and South Korea began joint naval drills in the Yellow Sea. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Can Meloni Learn From Berlusconi’s Failures?: Rachel Sanderson]( - [Kim’s Right, North Korea Is a Nuclear State: Gearoid Reidy]( - [Obama Is More Valuable as a Pundit: Matthew Yglesias]( Frictions increase | Brazil’s political tensions soared ahead of the Oct. 30 presidential runoff as Roberto Jefferson, a onetime lawmaker, got into a gun battle with police and threw a [grenade]( at officers enforcing a court order to detain him. The incident comes as polls show presidential contenders Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in or near a technical tie. Jefferson in 2020. Photographer: Andressa Anholete/Getty Images Explainers you can use - [How Turkey Tries Balancing East and West as War Rages]( - [What ‘Backwardation’ Has to Do With the US Diesel Squeeze]( - [How and When Japan Intervenes in Currency Markets]( Rising anger | Public trust in Indonesia’s government fell to the [lowest]( level since 2019, in part due to anger over rising living costs and several recent police blunders, including over a deadly stampede at a soccer stadium. Eroding public sentiment will further test the ability of President Joko Widodo to manage frustrations over inflation at seven-year highs. Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( on weekdays from 12 to 1pm ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2pm ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here]( or check out prior episodes and guest clips [here](. News to Note - Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman won’t attend an Arab League summit in Algeria, with his doctors saying he needs to refrain from “long-distance and nonstop travel by plane” [to avoid ear pressure](. - A spat over an OPEC+ decision to cut oil production risks lasting damage to ties between the US and Saudi Arabia, but [Wall Street seems unfazed]( with a slew of US finance chiefs set to attend Riyadh’s glittering investment summit this week. - South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said he’ll implement sweeping reforms in response to recommendations by a judicial panel that [probed corruption]( during predecessor Jacob Zuma’s calamitous rule. - Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers is aiming to establish the new Labor government’s fiscal credibility in his budget update, against a backdrop of [hot inflation]( and rising interest rates. - Crowds filled the embankment in front of the Budapest University of Technology and Economics last night to [support teachers]( over pay demands, the largest demonstration since a 2014 march in the city. - Officials from Ethiopia’s government and the dissident Tigray region are due to [hold talks]( today in South Africa amid continued violence in the Horn of Africa nation. Thanks to the 45 people who answered Friday’s quiz and congratulations to Barbaralee Diamonstein-Spielvogel, who was the first to name Silvio Berlusconi as the European politician who said he exchanged gifts and letters with Vladimir Putin. And finally ... As Egypt prepares to stage the COP27 [global climate summit](, the geopolitical context that shapes all international diplomacy is precarious. [Marc Champion]( and [Salma El Wardany]( write how the war in Ukraine has divided nations over what some saw as a fight between Russian and Western interests, and supercharged an energy crisis that risks shredding the most concrete achievement of last year's meeting: a global consensus to cut down on coal. The exposed bed of the Rhine river in Kaub, Germany, on Aug. 4 after an extended dry spell. Photographer: Ben Kilb/Bloomberg Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. 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