Wall Streetâs Fed guru speaks, UKâs Liz Truss fights for survival, and China debates quarantine changes. St. Louis Fed President James Bulla
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Wall Streetâs Fed guru speaks, UKâs Liz Truss fights for survival, and China debates quarantine changes. Peak rates? St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he expects the central bank to [end its ââfront-loadingâ]( of aggressive interest-rate hikes by early next year and shift to keeping policy sufficiently restrictive with small adjustments as inflation cools. âYou do have to think about what the reasonable level is,â said Bullard, who has become [Wall Streetâs gauge]( for any Fed policy pivots. Such an approach would resonate with DoubleLine Capital Chief Investment Officer Jeffrey Gundlachâs view that [Treasury yields may hit a peak]( between now and the end of the year.
Truss Limbo UK politics remained in a febrile state as [speculation over the future](of Prime Minster Liz Truss continued to swirl. Her premiership is on the brink after a tumultuous Wednesday that ended in the firing of a senior minister, before a routine House of Commons vote descended into chaos as Conservative Party discipline crumbled. For markets, the biggest event of the morning was a speech by Bank of England deputy governor Ben Broadbent, in which he suggested that rates may not have to rise by as much as investors currently expect. China debate Chinese officials are weighing whether to[cut the quarantine time]( for any visitors to the country, according to people familiar with the discussions. Currently, China requires 10 days of isolation in a hotel then at home, where people are still monitored and subject to regular testing. That said, âa cut to quarantine rules for inbound travelers will not be enoughâ for a sustained rebound in the Chinese market,â said Amir Anvarzadeh, a strategist at Asymmetric Advisors Ltd. Meanwhile, the nationâs top technology overseer convened emergency meetings over the past week with leading semiconductor companies to [assess the damage of US chip restrictions](. Risk off S&P 500 futures were on the backfoot, falling 0.2% as of g:26 a.m. in New York. Nasdaq 100 contracts saw deeper declines around 0.5%. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.5%, sliding for a second-straight day as telecoms weighed on the index. The yen extended declines past 150 per dollar, inviting speculation over whether Japanese authorities would intervene to stem losses. The dollar was little changed, while oil and gold climbed. Coming up⦠ The Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey for October is due at 8:30 a.m. in New York, along with initial jobless claims data. At 10 a.m., weâll get existing home sales figures for September. Itâs a packed day for Fed speakers, with Patrick Harker and Michelle Bowman among those making remarks. Earnings include AT&T, American Air, Blackstone and Snap. What weâve been reading Hereâs what caught our eye over the past 24 hours: - Crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried tries to [fix the hacking problem](Â
- Millenniumâs Bobby Jain [embraces volatilityÂ](
- Cathie Wood has been buying shares of a [little-known pharma firmÂ](
- Hong Kong may let bankers who get Covid [exit on private jets](
- Wealthy consumers are [spending on luxury goods]( like itâs 1999
- Elon Musk says heâs [âobviously overpayingâ for Twitter](
- [Welcome to Britaly](, where political instability and bond chaos reign And finally, hereâs what Joeâs interested in this morning Good morning. Here are a few random things on my mind today. - It's Jobless Claims day. With the trajectory of the labor market so critical for thinking about the Fed, recession risks, and so on, every weekly claims number is a top-shelf datapoint. Economists are expecting a slight increase, from 228K to 232K
- The British Pound is one of the best performing currencies in the world since 9/22, the day before the mini-budget was first unveiled - And 10-year UK gilts once again yield less than US Treasuries - On the new Odd Lots, [we talked to Nouriel Roubini](, who foresees a crisis that ends up as some kind of combo of the 1970s and the Great Financial Crisis. One interesting theme is the idea that fighting inflation will prove to be harder today than it was in the 1970s, due to high level of private sector debt in rich economies. Just generally, total asset values (debt, equity etc.) are much higher these days vs. GDP than they were back then and this is an interesting dynamic. The question is does that create situations where a financial crisis could arise before we get a meaningful slowdown in the economy, or before inflation is defeated Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter [@TheStalwartÂ]( Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before itâs here, itâs on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals canât find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things - Americas newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox.
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