A Fed official calls for more hikes, the Bank of England ends speculation and earnings season revs up. The Fed should keep raising rates, ev
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A Fed official calls for more hikes, the Bank of England ends speculation and earnings season revs up. Inflation, recession The Fed should keep raising rates, even beyond 4.75%, if inflation is still rising, according to [Minneapolis Fed President]( Neel Kashkari. In remarks on Tuesday, Kashkari said that if core inflation keeps surprising to the upside then "I don't see why I would advocate stopping at 4.5% or 4.75% or something like that." Higher rates raise the likelihood of a US recession, something that Citigroup analysts believe equities are pricing in more [than any other asset](. Still, Alex Saunders, a quantitative analyst at Citi, said that equities have not priced in enough recession risk as "earnings estimates have further to adjust."
Bond saga The BOE [ended speculation]( about its bond sales program last night, confirming they will start early next month but initially exclude long-dated debt at the heart of recent market turmoil triggered by the governmentâs ill-fated fiscal plans. The decision prompted a sell off in short-term bonds and a serious rally in long-dated gilts. Meanwhile, data showed [soaring food prices]( drove UK inflation back into double digits in September, in a reminder that the countryâs problems don't end with fiscal difficulties. Earnings galore Earnings season has well and truly arrived, with Netflix among those reporting. The company reported subscriber growth, [adding 2.41 million customers]( in the third quarter. Nestle sales surged as the worldâs largest food maker pushes through the [biggest price increases in decades](, overcoming the first fall in volume for years. And the [largest US banks added]( to their workforces even as executives from Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley talk of scaling back amid a slump in dealmaking and capital markets. Companies reporting on Wednesday include Tesla, P&G, IBM and Las Vegas Sands. Small bounce US futures and European stocks bounced off session lows as the euro zoneâs first-ever brush with double-digit inflation was [revised away]( by a fraction. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7% as of 6 a.m. New York time. The Stoxx 600 pared losses, climbing 0.2% with tech, chemicals and autos outperforming. Treasury 10-year yields held near multi-year highs above 4%, before the publication of US housing data for September and the Fedâs Beige Book. The dollar strengthened. Gold and Bitcoin fell while oil rose, trading within Tuesday's range. Coming up⦠US data due include September building permits and housing starts at 8:30 a.m. in New York. The Treasury will sell $12 billion of 20-year bonds at 1 p.m. Federal Reserve speakers include Neel Kashkari, Charles Evans and James Bullard, and the central bank will publish its latest Beige Book at 2 p.m. President Biden is due to speak at 1:15 p.m. What weâve been reading Hereâs what caught our eye over the past 24 hours: - How [Dubaiâs luxury property]( market went from crash to boomÂ
- [Virtual YouTubers]( turned a 26-year-old into a billionaireÂ
- Desperate carmakers turn to Chinaâs [underground market for chips](
- Credit Suisseâs[bankers]( â and [loan portfolios](â draw biddersÂ
- [Singapore vs Hong Kong](: whose expat visas are better?Â
- Italy's Berlusconi says Putin sent him [vodka and a âvery sweetâ letter](
- James Corden is [no longer banned](from Balthazar And finally, hereâs what Joeâs interested in this morning There's a popular view that the US economy must significantly weaken, that we must have a recession, in order to bring inflation down. The idea is basically that at this point, there's just no way price growth comes down without a significant hit to household spending power. If that view is right, we could be waiting awhile. Yesterday, [Nick Bunker](, an economist at the job site Indeed, posted the latest update on new job postings to the site. And the story is that there has been a very g r a d u a l decline in new job postings, but that the number is still dramatically above pre-Covid levels, and is actually up over the last month. It's just one data point, but still not much evidence of a significantly weakening labor market. In the meantime, other economic indicators are hanging in there and showing impressive resilience. Yesterday we got the latest reading on Industrial Production. Not only did is soundly beat expectations (a 0.4% gain vs. estimates of a 0.1% gain), but also there were upward revisions to previous months. As this chart from Andrew Husby and Eliza Winger at Bloomberg Economics shows, the increase in production in September was broad based, with particularly robust growth in manufacturing (which has been growing now for three straight months). So again, if you're looking for some signal that the economy is deteriorating and bringing inflation down, you might have to keep looking for awhile. Or perhaps hope that there's some way for inflation to come down, without widespread layoffs and immiseration. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter [@TheStalwartÂ](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before itâs here, itâs on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals canât find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things - Americas newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox.
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