US inflation beckons, investors ponder the UKâs options and the wipeout in chip stocks continues. All eyes are on US September inflation dat
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US inflation beckons, investors ponder the UKâs options and the wipeout in chip stocks continues. Eyes on inflation All eyes are on US September inflation data, which is expected to remain elevated. Setting the stage are [minutes]( of the Federal Reserveâs September meeting, where officials committed to raising interest rates to a restrictive level and holding them there to curb inflation. Several said, however, that it would be important to calibrate the pace of increases to mitigate risks. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen [said]( the top economic priority "is to bring down inflation while maintaining a strong labor market."
BOE v Kwarteng While UK bond markets are in a healthier state on Thursday, the country remains in the midst of a financial storm. The government and the Bank of England [are at loggerheads]( with less than a day before the central bank is set to end its emergency bond-buying program. Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng seemingly preparing the ground to scapegoat the BOE if the turmoil reemerges. The problem is that the UK [has few good options]( to address the chaos. Chip woes grow In the latest warning for the chipmaking industry, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. [slashed](its 2022 capital spending target by roughly 10% and Applied Materials Inc. cut its earnings forecast for the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, Intel Corp. is said to be preparing to fire thousands. Semiconductor companies are grappling with the Biden administration âs sweeping restrictions on doing business with China. The actions, which have incensed Beijing, threaten to disrupt a global economy already dealing with a potential global recession, soaring inflation and lingering supply snarls. Upbeat futures US futures traded around session highs and the dollar fell ahead of the much-anticipated CPI data later Thursday. Futures contracts on the S&P 500 and Dow were up 0.5% as of 5:50 a.m. in New York, while those on the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.3%. Treasuries were little changed across the curve. Meanwhile, UK bonds are showing signs of recovery after a historic selloff, with longer maturities rallying as the Bank of England prepared to end its purchase program. The pound reclaimed $1.11. European stocks were steady, with gains in travel, energy and retail shares offset by declines in tech stocks. Gold and oil rose, while Bitcoin fell. Coming up⦠It's all about US inflation. The headline figure is seen softening 20 basis points to 8.1%, with core likely to climb to 6.5%. But even a number outside expectations probably won't move the Fed from hiking 75 basis points in November, Bloomberg Intelligence argues. Also keep an eye on average hourly earnings, particularly after the softening wage data reported last week. Initial jobless claims and continuing claims round out the US docket on a crucial day for markets. What weâve been reading Hereâs what caught our eye over the past 24 hours: - [Seven Senate races]( that will make or break Biden's agenda
- It's a good time for Americans to [hop across the pond](
- "[Stark raving mad](": a billionaire's view on the UK tax cut
- China's [love affair with French vineyards]( is fizzling out
- Rent a [family villa in Dubai]( for only $73,000 a year
- [Dancing is back on]( in Hong Kong
- Have you [exercised your body fat]( lately? And finally, hereâs what Joeâs interested in this morning There continues to be a lot of finger pointing in the UK about who's to blame for the gilt market mess. Was there something inherently reckless about the government's mini-budget that needs to be fixed? Or is it the BOE's job to stabilize the gilt market, regardless of what the government does on the fiscal front? In addition to questions about what the BOE will do to support gilts, and the pension funds that own them, there are also questions about whether or not the government will do some kind of "U-Turn" on policy. I think there's actually a lesson from the eurozone crisis here. In the first couple years of the mayhem (which really started in late 2009), there were all kinds of commitments to austerity and so forth. All kinds of statements of support and all that, and none of it did any good. The mess just got worse. The only thing that worked was Mario Draghi stepping and saying that the ECB would offer contingent support for the bond market. Things immediately started getting better. The market recognized that what Greece and Italy and Spain and Portugal lacked is what Sweden and the UK and Japan, and the US and New Zealand had: a sovereign currency and a national central bank. Once those peripheral governments were seen as having a central bank that had their back, that was the game changer. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter [@TheStalwartÂ](. Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before itâs here, itâs on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals canât find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things - Americas newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox.
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