Up for grabs

Whether Joe Biden stands a chance at governing for what is left of his US presidency will depend on seven states and perhaps two men.With ju [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( Whether Joe Biden stands a chance at governing for what is left of his US presidency will depend on seven states and perhaps two men. With just weeks until the congressional midterm elections, the outcome is very much up in the air. Key reading: - [Georgia Senate Race Between Walker, Warnock Tight Despite Drama]( - [Republicans Rally for Herschel Walker in Ailing Senate Bid]( - [Abrams Focuses on Georgia Voter Limits in Bid to Unseat Kemp]( - [Democrats Spend Millions to Expose ‘Satanic’ Election Deniers]( - [Trump’s Role in Capitol Assault is Focus of House Hearing Thursday]( A few months ago, the conventional wisdom was Biden would see his wings clipped on Nov. 9 and his Democratic party without a majority in the Senate. But US politics in the post-Donald Trump era is as unpredictable as when the billionaire was president. He remains a divisive yet influential figure, lending his star power to a clutch of handpicked midterm candidates. The broader backdrop is Democrats desperate to stop a Trump comeback in 2024. [Our exclusive analysis]( lays out the swing states that could determine the midterm results, including Georgia, where Trump has backed Republican challenger Herschel Walker. The former college football star has seen his campaign hit by allegations he paid to terminate a pregnancy despite his public opposition to abortion. But while the Supreme Court’s overturning of federal abortion rights has energized women to vote it’s unclear if they, along with others, can make a difference. Sources: RealClearPolitics Senate election polls, AdImpact data compiled by Bloomberg; Bureau of Labor Statistics, unemployment for Aug. 2022; National Association of Realtors existing home prices, AAA regular gas prices The race in Georgia, pivotal in Trump’s defeat in 2020, remains tight in spite of Walker’s troubles. Democrats risk losing the advantage elsewhere, too. In Pennsylvania, Mehmet Oz, the Trump-backed celebrity heart surgeon, is closing in on Democrat John Fetterman, a charismatic everyman who has kept a low profile since suffering a stroke in May. Democrats were banking on his appeal with blue-collar voters to win a key battleground. It is impossible to know how his plight or that of Walker will play into the psyche of an electorate ever more hardened along partisan lines. Either way, both will have played outsized roles in determining which party will ultimately call the shots come November. — [Mario Parker]( Sources: U.S. Senate, RealClearPolitics average of polls as of Oct. 12, Bloomberg research Click [here]( to listen to yesterday’s Twitter Space with reporters discussing the latest on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine after a barrage of missile strikes on Monday. And if you’re enjoying this newsletter, click [here]( to sign up for Balance of Power. Global Headlines Marching apart | When Xi Jinping addressed the last Communist Party congress in 2017, prominent voices in both the US and China still favored engagement. Five years on, trust has [withered]( and it’s politically difficult to make the case for a softer approach in either country. That makes the Chinese President’s speech on Sunday kicking off the party’s latest congress one to watch. - About two dozen police patrolled a busy Beijing intersection today after photos and videos circulated of a [rare protest]( against Xi. - [Read how]( the Biden administration’s chip curbs aimed at China are sending shock waves through the global semiconductor industry. Still, Taiwan’s Economic Affairs Minister Wang Mei-hua [downplayed]( the impact of the new chip curbs on the island’s economy in an interview. Tax U-turn | UK Prime Minister Liz Truss faces calls from within her party to [backtrack]( on key pieces of her economic plan, even as her government tries to downplay its part in the recent turmoil in financial markets. Her promise that she wouldn’t cut public spending to pay for massive tax cuts failed to reassure Tories, and a former Cabinet minister said a reversal on the tax cuts is now inevitable. - Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng is preparing to make the Bank of England the [scapegoat]( if UK assets drop tomorrow when it ends an emergency bond-buying program put in place last month. - At his first weekly audience with Truss, the UK’s new monarch, King Charles III, began with a [memorable greeting]( as the cameras rolled. Charles meets Truss during their weekly audience at Buckingham Palace on Thursday. Photographer: Kirsty O'Connor/WPA Pool/Getty Images NATO umbrella | At least 15 NATO countries signed a letter of intent to join a long-term German project to create a European missile [shield](. The aim of the multi-layered shield is to boost protection for much of the continent following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and threats made by President Vladimir Putin. - A political deadlock in Bulgaria has given President Rumen Radev, who has been accused of being cozy with Moscow and once said Crimea belongs to Russia, a role of uncommon [power](, posing risks to efforts by Ukraine’s allies to punish Putin. - For the latest news from the war in Ukraine, click [here](. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Putin’s Air-Terror Campaign Is Already Failing: James Stavridis]( - [Europe’s Right-Wing Is Taking on the Left’s Look: Ian Buruma]( - [China’s Markets Can’t Survive Xi’s Covid Zero: Shuli Ren]( Oil worries | Some Biden administration officials are [concerned]( their plan to cap the price of oil purchased from Russia may backfire after the OPEC+ alliance’s surprise production cut last week, sources say. The plan seeks to keep enough Russian supplies on the global market to stave off a price spike, but the proposal, the subject of intense diplomacy with European allies, is potentially undermined by the OPEC+ move. Biden conceded the risk of a “very slight” recession, but a mild [downturn]( alone would be painful for American households and politically perilous for the president. Even modest economic contractions traditionally lead to higher unemployment as companies respond to weaker demand. That would undercut Biden, who has touted job growth to argue the economy is on a strong footing despite decades-high inflation. Explainers you can use - [Why Making Computer Chips Has Become a New Arms Race]( - [How Omicron’s Subvariants Have Turbo-Charged Covid]( - [Is a Fetus a Person? The Next Big Abortion Fight]( Staying power | While omicron has proven to be super-contagious and the source of hundreds of sublineages, it has been relatively less severe than previous variants of Covid-19, allowing much of the world to return to a semblance of normal life. If its [dominance holds](, writes [Naomi Kresge](, that could signal a drift reminiscent of the flu’s annual changes and pave the way for Covid to settle into a more predictable pattern. A social distancing billboard at Haneda Airport in Tokyo, Japan, on Tuesday. Photographer: Toru Hanai/Bloomberg Tune in at 7am ET for a Twitter Space conversation with our reporters on what to expect from the Chinese Communist Party Congress and Xi’s expected third term in power. You can listen [via this link](, which will also be available afterward. ​​​​ News to Note - Hong Kong is considering easing property taxes and visa restrictions in a bid to curb a pandemic [brain drain]( that’s threatened the city’s status as an international financial hub. - Support for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida dipped in a major poll below the 30% level considered a [danger zone]( for a premier, as voters fault him over measures to fight inflation and not doing enough to cut ties to a fringe church. - Zambian Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane urged other African nations considering using the Group of 20’s Common Framework mechanism to [restructure]( unaffordable debt to act quickly. - A complete US ban on Russian aluminum threatens to [upend]( a global market already reeling from multiple disruptions, throwing a spotlight on how China could fill any supply gap. - A US jury found that Alex Jones must pay $965 million in damages to families and an FBI agent who suffered from the Infowars founder’s lie that the Sandy Hook Elementary School [massacre]( was a hoax. And finally ... When Kweichow Moutai, mainland China’s largest listed company, purchased the 17th-century Chateau Loudenne property in 2013, it was joining other foreign Bordeaux vineyard buyers — the ultimate [status symbol]( for newly rich Chinese. But as [Alexandre Rajbhandari]( and [Evelyn Yu]( explain, the attempt at winemaking failed due to a confluence of factors that has brought an end to the Chinese love affair with French vineyards. The locked main gate of Chateau de Grand Branet, owned by Chinese conglomerate Dalian Haichang Group Co. Photographer: Nathan Laine/Bloomberg Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022