UK bonds and the poundâs declines continue, a housing downturn and tech has further to fall. UK bonds sold off for a second day on Monday, w
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UK bonds and the poundâs declines continue, a housing downturn and tech has further to fall. UK selloff UK bonds sold off for a second day on Monday, with traders [ramping up]( bets on the scale of interest-rate hikes by the Bank of England. The plunge in UK gilts sent 10-year yields above 4% for the first time since 2010. The [pound](, meanwhile, recovered from the day's lows of $1.0350 as the probability of [sliding to parity](with the dollar this year hit 60%. The UKâs foreign currency holdings are a fraction of the huge stockpiles built up by some of its peers, making unilateral intervention to prop up the pound a [tall order](.
Housing downturn Another downturn in US home prices may be in the cards, but the banking system is in a much better condition to handle it, the founder of Paulson & Co. [told Bloomberg](. John Paulson became a billionaire after his hedge fund effectively shorted more than $25 billion of mortgage securities at the dawn of the global financial crisis. Separately, Ken Griffinâs plan [to move]( Citadelâs headquarters to Miami has hundreds of its employees readying to dive into the real estate market. Bearish tech The great[tech selloff]( of 2022 is far from over as investors brace for earnings misses that may spur a more than 10% plunge in the Nasdaq 100. More than two-thirds of 914 respondents in the MLIV Pulse survey think profits of the technology companies will disappoint the market throughout 2022. The Nasdaq 100 is down about 31% so far this year, wiping out trillions of dollars in market value, as investors reassess the post-pandemic value of many business models. Meanwhile, retail and professional investors are also bearish on the metaverse. Stocks fall Global risk assets [extended their selloff]( on Monday as fears of faster inflation and global recession continued to rise. An index of global stocks traded near the lowest since 2020, while S&P 500 futures fell 0.8% as of 6:08 a.m. New York time on concern that Federal Reserve rate hikes to combat persistently elevated inflation will hurt the economy. [UK marketsÂ](were in focus as the pound crashed to an all-time low. Treasuries extended their worst bond slide in decades as a dollar gauge rose to yet another record. European equities also dropped after sliding into a bear market on Friday. Oil fell again, with Brent sliding below $85 a barrel at one point. Coming up... Thereâs a rich calendar of Fed speakers this week for insights into interpreting the latest US policy decision and for signs of unease about the tightening in financial conditions. Fed officials Susan Collins, Raphael Bostic and Loretta Mester speak at events today. ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks at the European Parliament. US data include Chicago Fed National Activity index and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook. The US sells $43 billion in 2-year notes. What we've been reading Here's what caught our eye over the weekend. - Amazon.com plans second [Prime Day](
- Wall Street banks prep for grim China scenarios [over Taiwan.](
- New Yorkâs [empty offices](.Â
- Hedge funds piled on [bullish pound bets.Â](
- Shoppers will pay for [healthy food.](
- Interpol issues red notice for [Terraâs Do Kwon](, Korea says
- [Gray hair](new power move for women. And finally, hereâs what Joeâs interested in this morning Economic policymakers frequently talk about the necessity of "pain" or perhaps "medicine" -- biophysical metaphors that imply some kind of initial discomfort in order to get to a place of health. That's the story in the US with the rate hikes. Yes the expectation is that some people will lose their jobs in the fight against inflation, but Fed officials say it's necessary to bring about price stability, and ultimately help restore growth and balance. That being said, there's another kind of pain that gets less attention, but which may be more relevant when thinking about how crises come to an end. That's the pain or discomfort of policymakers when they're forced to do something genuinely unappealing to them. So for example during the Great Financial Crisis, TARP was a crucial moment. But politicians hate voting to bail out banks. In the euro area crisis, a crucial moment was when Mario Draghi created an implicit sovereign debt for all euro nations. This type of debt backstop was seen as a true political red line that couldn't be crossed, and yet Draghi was eventually forced to do it. In the UK right now, we're seeing the British pound sell off violently in the wake of the new government's tax-cut plans. No matter where we are in the economic cycle, tax cuts are never politically painful to enact. It's hard to remember a politician who lost their job because they voted for a tax cut. Politicians who lost re-election, because they voted for a tax hike are legion. It's kind of surprising that taxes ever get raised on anyone TBH. From a markets perspective, tax cuts in the UK are crushing the pound. And economists would probably not advise them. Nevertheless, they're politically easy. So are electricity price caps. So is releasing oil from the SPR for that manner. If you're looking back to the crisis of a decade ago for some kind of analogy, it might be interesting to watch for, when, or if a major policymaker somewhere does something genuinely uncomfortable or painful for them. Extending the lifespan of some nuclear power plants in Germany by three or four months probably doesn't count. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter [@TheStalwart]( Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before itâs here, itâs on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals canât find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things - Americas newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox.
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