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Next week’s Fed decision, a tentative US rail pact, and a big Ethereum moment. Federal Reserve officials are unlikely to raise interest rate [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Next week’s Fed decision, a tentative US rail pact, and a big Ethereum moment. 100 Basis Points Federal Reserve officials are unlikely to raise interest rates by a super-sized 100 basis points when they meet next week, [according to]( JPMorgan Chase & Co. chief US economist Michael Feroli. Investors fully expect a 75 basis-point increase when Fed officials gather Sept. 20-21 and see a roughly one-in-three chance they will opt for the bigger move, according to pricing in federal fund futures contracts. Bridgewater's Ray Dalio [said]( inflation may eventually force rates into the 4.5%-6% range and warned even an increase to the lower end of [that band]( would lead to a roughly 20% plunge in stocks. Tentative pact US railroad companies and unions representing more than 100,000 workers [reached a]( tentative agreement, the government said. The breakthrough looks to avert a labor disruption that risked adding supply-chain strains to the world’s largest economy. The tentative resolution was announced [just a day]( before a Friday deadline that could have seen rail workers walk off the job or be locked out by the companies, freezing critical infrastructure that transports about 40% of all long-haul cargo in the US and threatening a [fresh wave]( of logistics chaos. The Merge Ethereum completed the crypto world’s biggest and most ambitious software upgrade to date, its co-founder Vitalik Buterin said in a Twitter post Thursday. [Called the Merge](, it replaced power-hungry computers that were used to order transactions on the network with a more energy-efficient setup using piles of native tokens, Ether, placed in special, so-called staking wallets. As a result, Ethereum’s energy consumption [will decline]( by an estimated 99%. The Merge doesn’t change the end-user experience on Ethereum, but it’s a key stepping stone to more upgrades that will make the network faster and cheaper, and should further increase its stature and usage. Treasuries inversion Two-year Treasuries [offered]( yields of as much 35 basis point over the 30-year rate on Thursday, sending the inversion of the curve to levels last seen in 2000. Meanwhile, US stock futures [drifted]( and the dollar held steady ahead of jobs, manufacturing and retail numbers due later Thursday. Banks led a small gain in European stocks. [Oil fluctuated]( as traders grappled with concerns about global demand and assessed comments from the US on refilling strategic reserves. This week’s MLIV Pulse survey asks about the best trades ahead of the FOMC meeting. Please [click here]( to share your views anonymously. Coming up... With all this talk of a looming US recession, there's a bright spotlight on the strength of the consumer. That brings the August retail sales reading, due out later, into sharp focus. The market is expecting a decline of 0.1% in the headline reading, down from unchanged the month before. Import and export prices will give a further view on the inflationary threat, and jobless claims will give a view on the employment situation. There's also the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, Empire Manufacturing, Industrial production and capacity utilization data to comb through. What we've been reading Here's what caught our eye over the past 24 hours. - The threat of [power outages]( in Europe. - It’s not looking good [for China](. - Putin's [war machine]( is boosting Russia. - UK wants to [scrap banker bonus caps](. - Now Twitter is [being sued](. - Ranking the world's [best business schools](. - [Cubicles]( make a comeback. And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning Here are 5 random things on my mind right now. 1) First, [here's a thread]( from top energy hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand that paints a slightly optimistic take on Europe's electricity situation. It's worth reading. 2) I continue to be astonished by the degree to which everything feels like the precise opposite of the post-GFC environment. When the Fed was mostly concerned about fighting recession, "buy the dip" became the mantra. Now that the Fed is in inflation fighting mode, "sell the rip" has been the winning strategy of 2022. 3) [Today on Odd Lots]( we have an interview with Pennsylvania Senator Pat Toomey about crypto regulation. He favors a light-touch approach to crypto in general, but when it comes to setting up actual rules he wants to start with asset-backed stablecoins. This makes sense, but also stablecoins really seem like low hanging fruit when it comes to regulating the space. It's one thing to regulate a company holding cash in a bank and make sure that they have sufficient assets. It's another thing to figure out how the disclosure requirements for some DeFi project with anonymous founders not even based in the US. 4) Ethereum people are all excited about The Merge (where the chain switches to proof of stake). It's interesting to compare the festivities around this moment to when Bitcoin people get joyous about the halving. With ETH it's a celebration about developing something new. With Bitcoiners, it's a celebration of stability, and rules never changing. It's an important difference. 5) Speaking of now vs post-GFC. This is a great [NYMag interview]( with one of the brains behind the [popular pseudonymous newsletter Doomberg](, which has been tracking the energy crisis. In September 2009, [NYMag ran a big story all about ZeroHedge](. ZH was all about financial market mayhem. Doomberg covers the real and the physical. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter [@TheStalwart]( Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things - Americas newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. [Unsubscribe]( [Bloomberg.com]( [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington Avenue, New York, NY 10022 [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( [Ad Choices](