Looking to Iran

A deal could face a hostile US Congress. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( Momentum appears to be building toward a new nuclear deal between Iran and world powers that could unleash oil onto global markets grappling with supply in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Washington and Iran have now responded to a European Union rescue plan for the 2015 accord that limited Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for easing economic sanctions, including on crude exports. It’s still not clear just how enthusiastic the US is about the plan, but the EU has said Iran has been “reasonable” in its response. Key reading: - [Iran Has Its Eye on Russia-Sized Hole in the European Oil Market]( - [A Sick Economy Is Forcing Tehran’s Hand in Nuclear Deal Talks]( - [The Sticky Issues Holding Up a New Iran Nuclear Deal]( - [Iran Reviewing US Response to EU’s Nuclear-Deal Rescue Plan]( - [Israel Opposes ‘Bad’ Iran Nuclear Deal as US Response Awaited]( The hardline leadership in Iran, under growing economic pressure, has dropped a demand that a US terrorist designation of its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps be rescinded. The fact that both sides have responded privately without too many public barbs is a sort of progress in itself after some 18 months of fraught diplomacy. In another sign of change afoot, Israel dispatched its defense minister to the US to discuss the deal — which it vehemently opposes. A successful nuclear accord would lead to an additional 500,000 to 1 million barrels per day entering international markets from Iran at a time when high energy prices are stoking inflation with oil back at $100 a barrel. A European ban on seaborne imports of Russian crude in December could exacerbate the continent’s energy crunch. At the same time, OPEC+ members are backing caution from group leader Saudi Arabia, which has floated the prospect of actually cutting output. This comes as the clock ticks for US President Joe Biden ahead of midterm elections in November. He’s faced opposition to reviving the deal from both Republicans and Democrats and Congress looks set to become even more hostile. While John Kirby, spokesman for Biden’s National Security Council, acknowledged progress has been made, he cautioned: “Gaps remain. We’re not there yet.” — [Sylvia Westall]( A banner depicting Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran. Photographer: Morteza Nikoubazl/AFP/Getty Images Click [here]( to listen to our weekly Twitter Space conversation yesterday about how President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine has sparked a profound rethink of Russia’s conventional capabilities. Also click [here]( to subscribe to our weekly newsletter Next Africa. Global Headlines Energy crisis | The spike in European energy prices is threatening to [dwarf]( the $279 billion in funds that politicians have earmarked to shield businesses and households. With Russia squeezing gas deliveries and power-plant outages further sapping supply, governments have focused mainly on lowering utility bills, an approach that may not only be overwhelmed by the price surge but risks making the crisis worse. Economic rescue | China announced 19 new policies to [ignite]( economic growth, which is weakening due to a resurgence in Covid cases, a deepening property crisis and power shortages spurred by a severe drought. The measures — unveiled by the State Council, the country’s Cabinet — include more than 1 trillion yuan ($146 billion) in new funding to boost investment and consumption. Deadly toll | The US and Europe condemned Russia for a missile strike on a [railway]( station in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region that killed at least 25 people, including two children, and wounded 31. The attack late yesterday “fits a pattern of atrocities,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said. Hours earlier, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed Kremlin forces had slowed their offensive to limit civilian casualties. - Biden said a new $2.98 billion arms [package]( for Ukraine is aimed at ensuring it can “defend itself over the long term.” - Nuclear inspectors will be given [wider powers]( than initially sought to investigate attacks against a Russian-occupied atomic plant in Ukraine. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Jackson Hole Should Be a Central Bank Mea Culpa: Marcus Ashworth]( - [Why Pakistan Can’t Afford Another Political Crisis: Mihir Sharma]( - [The Stink Over Britain’s Sewage Gets Political: Therese Raphael]( Time is ripe | Kosovo and Serbia have no alternative but to reach an agreement on normalizing ties, Prime Minister Albin Kurti said in an [interview](, adding that the “time is ripe” to do so during his term in office. Kurti, who took power last year, said he’s ready for a deal to move both nations closer to EU membership, which can only happen once they mend their relationship. Explainers you can use - [The Sticky Issues Holding Up a New Iran Nuclear Deal]( - [How Malaysia’s 1MDB Scandal Shook the Financial World]( - [Singapore Housing Barrier Becomes Even Higher for LGBTQ Buyers]( Popular appeal | Pakistan’s military-backed establishment faces a [dilemma](: The more they seek to boot Imran Khan out of politics, the greater the risk the former premier becomes even more popular. Since his ouster in a no-confidence vote in April, Khan has sought to rally his supporters to hit the streets and push for a fresh national vote. The campaign has been paying off lately, with Khan’s party winning key by-elections. - Khan was granted preemptive bail today in a [terrorism case]( as he appeared in front of an anti-terror court judge to explain his position on the complaints he faces. Supporters of Khan at a rally to celebrate the 75th anniversary of Pakistan’s independence in Lahore on Aug. 13. Photographer: Arif Ali/AFP/Getty Images Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( weekdays from 12 to 1pm ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2pm ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here]( or check out prior episodes and guest clips [here](. News to Note - Peru President Pedro Castillo appointed three new cabinet members yesterday amid a politically [turbulent]( year that’s seen on average a new minister being named every six days. - The ruling Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola, or MPLA, was [leading]( in initial provisional results following elections in Africa’s second-biggest oil producer. - Najib Razak may be in prison after Malaysia’s top court upheld the former prime minister’s conviction for his role in one of the world’s largest financial scandals, but he will [loom large]( over the next battle for control of parliament. - The Senate Judiciary Committee has [subpoenaed]( Twitter’s whistle-blower and former security chief Peiter “Mudge” Zatko, following his allegations the social media giant failed to adequately protect data on its hundreds of millions of users. - The Biden administration won a judge’s order ensuring women in Idaho can get [abortions]( in medical emergencies, less than a day after losing a similar fight in Texas. - The Solomon Islands threatened to [ban]( “disrespectful and demeaning” journalists from entering after an Australian documentary alleged widespread Beijing influence in the Pacific country. And finally ... Australia, the largest carbon emitter per capita in the developed world, is finally taking global warming seriously and everyone from oil majors to billionaire mining magnates are looking for a way to capitalize on the transformation. [Signs of change]( are everywhere. A newly elected government is pledging to cut greenhouse-gas emissions faster; the nation’s biggest power grid has a multibillion-dollar plan to dump coal; and some of the country’s richest people who made their fortunes in mining and technology are lining up huge green-energy projects. The Tianqi Lithium processing facility in Kwinana. Australia is the biggest producer of the battery metal. Photographer: Carla Gottgens/Bloomberg Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. 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