Toxic division

Trump is facing a series of investigations. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( By any measure, the FBI raid on Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence was an extraordinary move — search warrants aren’t normally executed at the homes of former US presidents. Even Richard Nixon received a subpoena for the Watergate tapes that helped doom his presidency. The risk for Trump is obvious. It’s yet another legal case hanging over a re-election bid in 2024 he’s poised to announce. Put simply, being president gives the kind of immunity he is sorely missing these days. Key reading: - [FBI Raid Focused on Material Trump Brought from White House]( - [Trump Took Classified Documents from White House, Archivist Says]( - [Trump Once Again Dominates CPAC 2024 Presidential Straw Poll]( - [Biden Gets Big Economic Win as Inflation Threatens Legacy]( But the federal probe into whether he removed classified documents from the White House will just as easily further radicalize his base. As with the congressional hearings into the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the Capitol, Trump will fire up his MAGA fans by casting himself as the victim of a political witch hunt by the Washington establishment. The raid comes at an awkward time for Trump’s successor, Joe Biden, threatening to divert attention from political momentum gained by the president’s Democratic allies with the Senate passage of a $430 billion climate, energy and tax bill ahead of congressional midterm elections in November. Trump, already facing numerous federal and state investigations, immediately described the probe as “the weaponization of the Justice System.” Legal experts are still debating whether a conviction on removing classified materials would be enough to block another Trump run for the presidency. While Republican lawmakers are split over the wisdom of backing his candidacy, many supporters remain devoted to him. However the investigation develops, the search of Trump’s home by federal agents will be red meat to those followers and ensure that America’s toxic political divide will only get nastier. — [Karl Maier]( A police car outside Mar-a-Lago yesterday.  Photographer: Giorgio Viera/AFP/Getty Images Click [here]( to follow Bloomberg Politics on Facebook and share this newsletter with others. They can sign up [here](. Global Headlines ‘New normal’ | China used the visit of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taipei as [a pretext]( to prepare for a possible invasion of Taiwan and expand its control throughout the region, the island’s foreign minister said. Joseph Wu added Taiwan believes that Beijing is determined to [exert control]( over the East China Sea and South China Sea at either end of the Taiwan Strait, making the whole area its internal waters. - Unofficial what-if war games are being conducted in an office building not far from the White House. [Read what they are revealing]( so far. Taiwanese soldiers fire artillery today during an anti-landing drill. Photographer: Sam Yeh/AFP/Getty Images Iran accord | European Union diplomats presented a final draft nuclear accord that could deliver a major expansion of Iranian oil exports to global markets, giving the US and Tehran just weeks to choose whether they want to revive the 2015 deal. The [blueprint]( resulting from 15 months of talks in Vienna now requires a decision by Biden and Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi on whether to sign off on the agreement. Losing patience | China’s leadership has grown [increasingly frustrated]( with a years-long failure to develop semiconductors that can replace US circuitry, an embarrassment capped by a flurry of anti-graft probes into top industry officials and the $9 billion rescue of Tsinghua Unigroup. Senior figures are angry that tens of billions of dollars funneled into the industry haven’t produced the sorts of breakthroughs seen in previous national-level scientific endeavors, sources say. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Hong Kong Fiddles While the World Moves On: Matthew Brooker]( - [Meloni Will Keep Jousting With Salvini. Just Wait: Maria Tadeo]( - [India and Beijing-Style Surveillance Capitalism: Andy Mukherjee]( Government shuffle | Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will reveal a new [cabinet]( tomorrow after the murder of former leader Shinzo Abe exposed embarrassing ties between their party’s largest faction and the Unification Church. The shuffle could indicate how power within the Liberal Democratic Party has shifted away from Abe’s bloc, which has produced a series of prime ministers since the turn of the century. Explainers you can use - [What Britain Is Targeting in a Post-Brexit City]( - [Companies Sign Up for the Nuclear Fusion Craze: Cleaner Tech]( - [The Great European Energy Crisis Is Now Coming for Your Food]( Voting day | Kenyans began [casting ballots]( today in a presidential election dominated by the spiraling cost of living and growing inequality. Both the leading candidates, Deputy President William Ruto and ex-Prime Minister Raila Odinga, have [promised]( people squeezed by a slowdown in East Africa’s biggest economy a grab bag of subsidies and social programs. Violence and vote-rigging allegations have marred previous elections. - Check out [Adelaide Changole](’s chart-based [story]( on the biggest economic challenges facing the incoming president. Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( weekdays from 12 to 1 p.m. ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2 p.m. ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here]( or check out prior episodes and guest clips [here](. News to Note - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy [thanked]( Biden and the American people for “another unprecedented security aid package,” while a Pentagon official said as many as 80,000 Russian troops may have been killed or wounded in Ukraine. - New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern [slipped]( to her lowest rating since taking office in 2017 and her Labour Party could struggle to retain power next year, a new poll shows. - The US [unveiled]( a new strategy to forge closer relations with sub-Saharan Africa, [contending]( that China and Russia were motivated by narrow self-interests in the region. - Ethiopia has [arrested]( thousands of people suspected of being members of militias or terrorist organizations as it seeks to end instability. - Polling suggests Pierre Poilievre, who’s front-runner in the race to lead Canada’s main opposition Conservatives, faces regional and demographic [barriers]( in attempting to defeat Justin Trudeau in a general election. And finally ... Mexico, the world’s largest beer exporter, faces severe water shortages in the country’s north that [threaten]( output after President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said brewers there should halt production. Months of water scarcity in drought-plagued Monterrey, an industrial region where beermakers like Heineken NV have facilities, led Lopez Obrador to declare beer production in the north “over,” telling companies to focus on the south and southeast instead. Residents wait to fill water containers in Monterrey. Photographer: Marian Carrasquero/Bloomberg Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022