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Pelosi is expected to visit Taiwan, Republicans plan challenges to tax, health and climate deal, and a survey on credit. Taiwan visitUS Hous [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Pelosi is expected to visit Taiwan, Republicans plan challenges to tax, health and climate deal, and a survey on credit. Taiwan visit US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi [is expected]( to land in Taiwan on Tuesday evening in defiance of Chinese threats, a trip that would make her the highest-ranking American politician to visit the island in 25 years. China's foreign ministry has already [remarked]( that the People's Liberation Army "won't sit idly by" should she make a visit, though the White House insisted the trip [doesn't signal]( a change of US posture toward the island. The yen advanced and Treasury yields fell as [markets]( braced themselves for heightened tensions. Read this [explainer]( to understand the historical context for tensions around Taiwan. Spending stall Republicans plan to challenge [many provisions]( of the Democrats' tax, health and climate deal using an obscure rule which sharply limits the ability to pass legislation with a simple majority, a process known as reconciliation. The Byrd rule allows individual pieces of a measure to be challenged on the grounds that they are incidental or extraneous to the budget. Republican Senator Pat Toomey, highlighting GOP arguments, said it was “[very doubtful](” the deal would either bring down the deficit or lessen inflation, as Democratic senators who negotiated it contend. Democrats will need all 50 members of their caucus to get the package passed in the evenly divided Senate this week. Republicans and the private-equity industry all are trying to suss out where Arizona Democratic Senator Kyrsten Sinema stands. The lawmaker has given [no clue]( about whether she might provide the 50th vote needed to pass the legislation. Credit conundrum The first half of 2022 was pretty bad for US credit, both investment-grade and high-yield. In fact, it was the worst ever. This week’s MLIV Pulse survey is asking about the outlook for corporate bonds, mergers and acquisitions and health of US corporate balance sheets through the end of the year. Are the yields adequately reflecting the impact of reduced economic activity? It takes one minute to participate in the MLIV Pulse survey, so please [click here]( to get involved anonymously. Stocks fall European stocks and futures on [US equities fell](  0.7% as of 5:50 a.m. New York time as US-Chinese tensions rose over Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. Energy companies outperformed, with stellar earnings and share buybacks from BP boosting their appeal. A move into havens lifted the yen and Treasuries, sending the 10-year yield toward 2.5%. Gold held steady and oil was on the retreat, with the outlook for global growth in doubt as central bankers looked to hike interest rates. Coming up... Markets will be watching Pelosi’s expected visit to Taiwan. Today’s earnings include Caterpillar, Marriott, PayPal, Starbucks, Match Group and Advanced Micro Devices. The main US data release is JOLTS job openings at 10 a.m. Fed speakers include Loretta Mester and Charles Evans. What we've been reading Here's what caught our eye over the past 24 hours. - BP boosts [returns]( as profit beats. - JPMorgan apart in saying [stocks will rebound.]( -  Biden says [planner of 9/11]( attacks killed. - [L-shaped recession]( needed to conquer inflation. - Eight offbeat indicators to watch for [recession.]( - Bank of America sees path to 2% 10-year [Treasury yield.]( - Twitter probes Musk’s [social circle](. And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning I have to admit that I'd kind of forgotten about the so-called Misery Index, a crude measure of the economy that simply adds up the unemployment rate and CPI. The higher it is, the more miserable; the lower the better. But some new work from the [Bloomberg Economics team]( on its trajectory and its impact on politics reminded me to check it out again. I first recall really hearing about the measure during the Great Financial Crisis and its aftermath, and part of the problem is it didn't really "work" in capturing the misery. That's because CPI plunged so much in 2009 that it brought the index down, even as the economy was obviously in collapse mode. Here is a chart comparing the Misery Index (white line) with the UMich Consumer Sentiment Index (yellow line, inversed), and you can see that period in 2009 where there was a divergence between the two lines. But outside of that period, the Misery Index seems to... work pretty well? In fact, it really captures the swings of the last two years well: the initial misery of 2020, the improvement in 2021, and the sharp deterioration in sentiment of 2022, as the inflation rate pressed persistently higher. One thing that's interesting too is that while the index absolutely exploded in 2020 with the pandemic-induced unemployment surge, actual consumer sentiment never really got that bad. Perhaps this was an early sign that the public expected the misery to be short-lived. Or perhaps it reflects the aggressive fiscal expansion. Perhaps it's some combination of the two. Anyway, it seems like the index works pretty well these days as a guide to how the public is feeling, so it will be worth seeing if and when the line comes down. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter [@TheStalwart]( Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. 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