Boris Johnson’s endgame

Johnson narrowly survived a vote of no confidence last month. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( Boris Johnson has faced growing pressure over his leadership as UK prime minister for months. So when Health Secretary Sajid Javid and Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak dramatically resigned within minutes of each other late yesterday, many thought it was game over. Yet Johnson, whose nicknames include “Teflon” and the “greased piglet,” clings on to power. He swiftly replaced the two men, promoting Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi to Chancellor — who wasted no time in hinting at tax cuts in media interviews, red meat to Conservative Party members. Key reading: - [Boris Johnson’s No. 10 Sees Maximum Danger as Top Ministers Quit]( - [Johnson Clings On After Resignations, Names Zahawi Chancellor]( - [Tory Sleaze Saga Rumbles On With New Claims of Johnson Knowledge]( - [Britain’s New Chancellor Zahawi Inherits UK Economy on the Ropes]( The question now is how long Johnson can ride out the crisis. He faces MPs today at Prime Minister’s Questions and again at a committee hearing of senior lawmakers, with his team on high alert for any hint of a plot among his remaining cabinet ministers to oust him. Allies judge he’d struggle to survive if more than six top ministers quit, but would absorb the blows and go on if further resignations are limited to junior figures. Those resignations are coming. Children’s Minister Will Quince quit early today, pointing to “inaccurate” Number 10 briefings he received before speaking to the media. Concerns over Johnson’s leadership have snowballed, driven by anger about illegal Downing Street parties during the pandemic lockdown that led to him being fined by police, a first for a sitting premier. His decision to promote an MP, Christopher Pincher, to a senior government role despite knowing of a formal complaint into his inappropriate behavior, and then seeking to deny such awareness, was the final straw for some. If the cabinet doesn’t topple Johnson, rebel MPs may shortly gain control of the critical 1922 committee of backbench Conservatives and change its rules to force another confidence vote in his leadership. The prime minister narrowly survived such a vote only last month. Next time, it won’t be so easy. — [Emily Ashton]( Johnson at the weekly Cabinet meeting yesterday at Downing Street. Photographer: Justin Tallis/Pool/Getty Images Click [here]( to sign up for our Equality Newsletter running tomorrow and share this newsletter with others. They can sign up [here](. Global Headlines Resisting pressure | Russia appears on track for a much [shallower]( recession than many forecasters initially expected this year, boosted by rising oil production that has blunted the impact of US and European sanctions over President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine. Economists are slashing their outlooks for the drop in output, dismissing early fears that it could be the deepest in a generation. - More than 20,000 Russian tech workers have joined an [exodus]( to neighboring Georgia since the invasion began, seeing little future at home. - Russia’s Foreign Ministry slammed French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to reveal private [telephone]( exchanges with Putin days before the war started for a TV documentary. - Follow our latest coverage of the war [here](. Chip tensions | The US is [pushing]( the Netherlands to ban ASML Holding from selling mainstream technology to China that’s essential in making a large chunk of the world’s chips, expanding its campaign to curb Beijing’s rise, sources say. If the Dutch agree, it would broaden significantly the range and class of gear now barred to China, a potentially serious blow to Chinese chipmakers. - US Secretary of State Antony Blinken plans to have a candid [discussion]( with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi about Russia’s war at this week’s Group of 20 foreign ministers’ meeting in Bali, a top official said. Getting squeezed | Soaring prices are [eroding]( people’s spending power worldwide and many worry it will get worse. Central banks are raising interest rates to curb the inflation surge, but that turns the screw on those with debts. Workers complain their wages aren’t keeping up with living costs, leading to strikes in some countries. While recession calls grow louder on Wall Street, many households and businesses say the downturn is already here. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Boris Johnson and the Longest Goodbye: Martin Ivens]( - [Pollution’s Impact on Crops Is Ominous for China: Adam Minter]( - [Supreme Court Wages War on Regulatory Expertise: Timothy O'Brien]( Charm offensive | Leftist former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva lunched with some of Brazil’s richest and most powerful company executives as he seeks to ease [concern]( about policies he would implement if he defeats incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in October’s election. While Lula said he would push labor law reforms and boost the minimum wage, he also reaffirmed his commitment to fiscal responsibility, a source familiar with the meeting said. Explainers you can use - [Biden to Get Little Inflation Relief If He Eases China Tariffs]( - [Italy Faces National Climate Emergency to Add to Debt Woes]( - [What’s Crypto Lending? Why Did Investors Get Burned?]( Falling apart | The US said Iran’s rejection of a plan to return to the 2015 international nuclear accord and raising of “extraneous demands” indicate it’s not [serious]( about talks. Efforts to restore the deal, which limited Tehran’s atomic work in return for sanctions relief, are hanging by a thread. The disputed issues include Iran’s demand that the US remove the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from its terrorist list. - Israel’s new interim prime minister, Yair Lapid, [warned]( that continuing the status quo with Iran may lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East that would “threaten world peace.” Tune in to our weekly global politics Twitter Space where we’ll be taking stock half way through a tumultuous year of political turbulence, pandemic, war, energy, inflation and food crises, and take a look at where we might be going. We’ll be chatting from 8am ET today and you [can listen here](. News to Note - OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo, 63, who [steered]( the group through the creation of the OPEC+ oil alliance, has died in his native Nigeria, officials said. - The House Committee investigating last year’s attack on the US Capitol has [scheduled]( its next and seventh hearing for July 12. - The suspect in the mass shooting at a US Independence Day parade near Chicago was [charged]( with seven counts of first-degree murder and may face “dozens” more charges, according to the local state’s attorney. - Hong Kong must not [“lie flat”]( in its battle with Covid-19, the city’s new leader John Lee said, echoing mainland China’s rejection of the “living with the virus” pandemic philosophy. - Russia has [ordered]( the agency in charge of organizing the emigration of Jews to Israel to halt activities immediately, the Israeli government said, though the group said it’s continuing to operate. And finally ... As anti-establishment [fervor]( spreads across Latin America, one leader has been spared: Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. But he can’t run again, and polls suggest the man best positioned to challenge his party is a 36-year-old first-term mayor who has led Monterrey, the nation’s second-largest city, for less than a year. His popularity stems mainly from his name — Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas. The mayor’s charismatic father was assassinated on the presidential campaign trail in 1994, two weeks after crying “Let’s change!” Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas. Photographer: Marian Carrasquero/Bloomberg Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. 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