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Forward Guidance
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Jobs day in the U.S., election weekend in France, and a bad week for oil producers.
Jobs day
At 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time the [payrolls report for April]( will be released. Consensus expectations are for employers to have added 190,000 positions in the month, with a rise in the jobless rate to 4.6 percent. Analysts will also look to average hourly earnings, which are expected to grow 2.7 percent from a year earlier, and at retail employment — a sector that has had a [difficult start to the year](.
Crude crumble
West Texas Intermediate for June delivery dropped as much as $1.76 to [$43.76 a barrel](, before recovering some ground to trade at $45.63 by 5:19 a.m. Still, that amounts to a 7.5 percent fall this week. It wasn't just technical factors hastening the plunge: traders are losing faith in OPEC-led efforts to counteract the [shale-fed glut]( through supply cuts. Some other commodities are also struggling, with iron ore [down 12 percent]( this week, prompting worries of [wider contagion issues](.Â
French election
On Sunday the second round of the French presidential election will be held, with all expectations for a [comfortable victory]( for independent Emmanuel Macron, who is maintaining more than a 20-point lead in polls. Markets are heavily positioned against a surprise victory for far-right Marine Le Pen, with the spread between French and German bonds [narrowing to a 2017 low](. Bloomberg will be running [a live blog]( as the results come in on Sunday. Also this weekend, there is an election in the German state of [Schleswig-Holstein]( which is being seen as a test for German Chancellor Angela Merkel's party's renewed strength. Local elections held yesterday in the U.K. saw [sweeping gains for Theresa May’s Conservatives](, and big losses for the opposition Labour Party.Â
Markets drop
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index [fell 0.7 percent]( as the plunge in crude saw a gauge of energy companies drop the most in four months. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was [0.1 percent]( lower by 5:55 a.m., trimming the week's gains to 1.2 percent. S&P 500 futures were [broadly unchanged]( ahead of the payrolls release.Â
Yellen, Fischer and Buffett
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak at 1:30 p.m. today at Brown University, with her deputy Stanley Fischer's earlier speech to the Hoover Institute at 11:30 a.m. expected to be more likely to address monetary policy. This weekend sees Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s annual general meeting, with [Warren Buffett]( saying ahead of the event that he had sold about a third of Berkshire's shares in International Business Machines Corp.
Here's what you should read today
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- China's [renewed drive]( to tame its debt pile starts to bite.
- Tesla has a lot more in store than the [Model 3](.Â
- Blankfein says [City of London growth]( may "backtrack" on Brexit.
- It's [Nike versus Adidas]( in race to break a two-hour marathon.
- Making money by [turning plastic into oil](.Â
- Washington is making it [tougher to retire](.
- Reports of the [death of banknotes]( have been greatly exaggerated.
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And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning
One of the biggest forces in the U.S. bond market made headlines yesterday. It wasn't the Fed, or even a bond manager like Pimco. Instead it was Apple, a company best known for its iPhones as opposed to, say, its corporate treasury. But Apple has a huge hoard of overseas money that it's been investing in securities, and which has been the subject of some speculation given Donald Trump may try to impose a one-time tax on cash held outside of the U.S. Bloomberg had a [great story]( yesterday pointing out that Apple actually has more money invested in corporate debt than some traditional bond funds have in their entire portfolios. Meanwhile, Apple was also back in the market selling bonds to finance more buybacks of its shares.
What to make of it all? One takeaway is that a repatriation tax could give the corporate bond market a knock if companies like Apple have to liquidate their portfolios to bring their money home. Plenty of people also expect firms would spend more of their savings buying back their shares rather than pay more tax. That would likely [diminish their credit quality]( -- in effect creating a double whammy to corporate credit. All of this is speculative as Trump's tax plan has so far only [come in bullet-point form](, of course, but it is worth noting given that the corporate bond market has been booming in recent years.
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