Another crisis looms

The war in Ukraine is fueling a potential global food crisis. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( For months the world has been fretting about rising energy prices, which were given a further jolt from the war in Ukraine. Now it’s waking up to the potential for a full-blown food crisis. In the Swiss Alps this week, at the first in-person World Economic Forum in two years, the chatter in the hallways, at dinners and on shuttle buses was frequently about one thing: the worry that shortages of agricultural commodities and spiking prices could reverberate well beyond the traditional buyers of Ukraine’s grains. Key reading: - [European Leaders in Davos Decry Russia Using Food as ‘Blackmail’]( - [Support Grows for Naval Escorts for Ukraine Grain, Estonia Says]( - [Dutch May Join Naval Escorts for Ukraine Wheat If Russia Commits]( - [Mined Ports, Red Tape and Russia Risk Stop Ukraine Grain]( - [Food Crisis Risks ‘Messy’ Migration Wave Into Europe, EU Warns]( Russia has been blocking Ukrainian ports in a war now in its fourth month. That has halted grain shipments and drawn accusations that Moscow is weaponizing food. Mines laid around the ports add a complication, alongside the damage from Russian rockets. Then there’s the worry that Russia could yet target grain freighters. While Moscow says it plans to reopen ports to international shipping, it has a history of broken promises in the war on safe corridors, be they for people or goods. Overland routes by rail to Baltic harbors are also problematic and not an immediate replacement for exports by sea. Ukraine is the breadbasket for many places, but in particular poorer countries that can’t easily secure supply elsewhere or keep a lid on prices through endless subsidies. That’s a recipe for social trouble far beyond Ukraine’s shores. Even if there isn’t street unrest, crime (stealing food), hoarding and poverty are likely. So what’s the solution? There was some discussion in Davos around how to support developing nations get their hands on alternative supplies. But as India’s recent move to temporarily suspend wheat exports shows, protectionism is already in the wind. The feeling is one of crisis potentially piling on crisis, showing the effect of Russia’s war goes well beyond the destruction in Ukraine. And the damage could last for many months yet. — [Rosalind Mathieson]( Workers at a wholesale grain market in Uttar Pradesh, India. Photographer: Anindito Mukherjee/Bloomberg You can sign up for our Equality Newsletter [here]( and share this newsletter with others. They can sign up [here](. Global Headlines Gun club | The National Rifle Association opens its annual convention this week in Houston facing falling revenue, legal challenges and condemnation for defending access to weapons used in massacres that have devastated American communities. But it still has heavy political [clout](, and the meeting will host former US President Donald Trump, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and other figures who have benefited from the organization’s lobbying cash. - The latest mass shooting at an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas, creates a new point of political [pressure]( on a US Supreme Court that’s signaled it will soon limit state and local governments’ ability to enact gun-control measures. A local resident holds a placard as people grieve for victims of the mass shooting at Robb Elementary School. Photographer: Chandan Khanna/AFP/Getty Images Bleak outlook | Chinese Premier Li Keqiang gave his starkest [warning]( yet about the economy as it comes under severe strain from Covid-19 outbreaks and lockdowns. He said the situation is worse than in 2020 when the pandemic first emerged and urged more efforts to reduce a soaring unemployment rate. - Shanghai will [reopen]( some schools after a three-month shutdown as coronavirus infections ebb, with attention shifting to the simmering outbreak in Beijing. Daily operations at Shanghai’s port have almost fully [recovered]( from the effects of the city’s lockdown, though the backlog from disruptions to the port and nearby factories will likely continue to cause shipping congestion well into the year. Long war | NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told allies the war in Ukraine “may last a [long time](” and that they must be ready to provide support and to restock equipment for Kyiv’s forces. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, meanwhile, said in Davos that peace negotiations with Russia are going “nowhere.” Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [The Horror of the Texas Shooting Demands Change: Editorial]( - [Boris Johnson’s Partygate Saga Doesn’t End Here: Therese Raphael]( - [The Best Outcome for Ukraine in This Conflict: Andreas Kluth]( Risky transfer | Buyers of Russian oil are using creative ways to maintain flows as more shipowners shun the crude due to the potential fallout from financial sanctions, [Serene Cheong]( reports. A logistically risky and costly [transfer]( of crude between tankers at sea highlights the steps at least one Chinese buyer is willing to take to ensure the smooth flow of oil from eastern Russia to Asia. Unusual ship-to-ship transfers seen for China-bound shipments of Russian ESPO oil as shippers try to more efficiently deploy a shrinking fleet. Explainers you can use - [How Mass Shootings and Gun Culture Affect US Gun Laws]( - [Why Colombia’s Election Has Voters Looking Left]( - [Lithium Supply Crisis Could Hurt Global Effort to Curb Emissions]( Mounting pressure | Pakistan faces the prospect of default on its debt for the second time ever after talks with the International Monetary Fund ended inconclusively. The government deployed the army in the capital amid [clashes]( between protesters and security forces late yesterday, while ousted Premier Imran Khan said that unless new elections are announced in six days he will return to Islamabad with 2 million people for a sit-in. Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( weekdays from 12 to 1 p.m. ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2 p.m. ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here]( or check out prior episodes and guest clips [here](. News to Note - The United Nations issued a “[clarification](” of its human rights chief’s remarks during a call with President Xi Jinping, in an apparent suggestion Chinese state media mischaracterized her comments. - Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and US President Joe Biden will have their first [bilateral meeting]( next month after the South American leader agreed to attend a regional summit in Los Angeles, according to CNN Brasil. - Public support for the Northern Ireland Protocol has more than [doubled]( from a year ago as the UK and EU continue a heated dispute over the part of the Brexit treaty dealing with the region. - The top US envoy for talks between Iran and world powers said prospects of reviving the 2015 nuclear deal are “[tenuous at best](.” - Senior Turkish officials said Islamic State’s new leader has been [captured]( in a recent raid in Istanbul. And finally ... Bloated livestock carcasses and sun-bleached bones litter the parched landscape around Garissa in eastern Kenya, the [epicenter]( of a humanitarian and environmental crisis unfolding across the Horn of Africa. The worst drought in at least four decades has depleted the area’s rivers and dams and driven thousands of destitute farmers from their lands. At least 16 million people in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia are already at risk, as the threat of famine looms. Children push plastic water containers on the road leading out of Garissa, eastern Kenya, on May 20. Photographer: Simon Marks/Bloomberg Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022