Seeking NATO’s shelter

Finland knows first hand what war with Russia looks like. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( A short ferry ride from Finland’s capital Helsinki lies the fortress island of Suomenlinna, and a long-decommissioned submarine. Under the terms of a treaty agreed with the Soviet Union in 1948, Finland secured political autonomy but had to defang its military — meaning no operational subs. Now, Finland is again poking the bear. Its president and prime minister announced today they’d support an application to join NATO, overturning decades of neutrality as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A formal decision should come this weekend. Sweden is expected to follow suit. Key reading: - [Finnish Leaders Back Joining NATO With Sweden Set to Follow]( - [NATO Bids Draw Near in Finland and Sweden as Russia Casts Shadow]( - [Sweden, Finland Get UK Security Pledge For NATO Bid Period]( - [How Russia Pushed Finland and Sweden Toward NATO]( Finland has the longest land border with Russia of any European Union nation. Having it in NATO (a process that could take six months, and requires the agreement of all members) would dramatically extend the military alliance’s defensive line. It would send a message to President Vladimir Putin that if he goes beyond Ukraine he’s taking on the entirety of NATO. Finland knows first hand what war with Russia looks like. The Winter War of 1939 was brief but brutal, followed by a second conflict fought by Finland and Nazi Germany against the Soviets. Finnish people know that a NATO application comes with risks. Putin has frequently cited what he says is NATO expansionism for his war on Ukraine. NATO’s move to reinforce its eastern flank has raised his ire. Finland’s decision can be used to further his narrative that Russia is being provoked. Still, Russia’s military remains bogged down in Ukraine, burning through equipment and troops. Finland and others are betting that Putin realizes he’d be overstepping the mark by retaliating — even against a nation without any submarines of its own.— [Rosalind Mathieson]( A tank crew at the Finnish Army Arrow 22 training exercise on May 4. Photographer: Roni Rekomaa/Bloomberg Check out our new UK website [here]( and share this newsletter with others too. They can sign up [here](. Global Headlines Uneasy ally | Russian setbacks in Ukraine have begun to prompt rare [criticism]( in China about Moscow’s value as a diplomatic partner, a sign of growing unease over President Xi Jinping’s strategic embrace of Putin. A former Chinese envoy to Moscow and Ukraine warned at a recent seminar that Russia was headed for defeat and being “significantly weakened” by the war. - One of the Ukrainian fighters in Mariupol’s besieged Azovstal steel plant [appealed]( to Elon Musk on Twitter to help arrange safe passage for them. - The US is looking to send an advanced version of a dive-bombing, armor-piercing Switchblade [drone]( to Ukraine. Leveling up? | Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s 2019 election victory was premised on spreading the UK’s wealth out of London to the regions that backed his pro-Brexit agenda. We analyzed metrics from pay to crime to home affordability across 650 electoral districts to see how successful he’s been. Click [here]( to see what we found. - Johnson will spend the next few days considering whether the UK will introduce legislation to [override]( its post-Brexit settlement with the EU, a move that risks sparking a trade war and a standoff with the US. Court security | The US Justice Department will provide [security]( to the Supreme Court and its judges as tensions rise over an expected decision to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling that legalized abortion nationwide. Protesters have already marched to the homes of three justices, and the Senate unanimously passed legislation on Monday to protect those who work at the court and their families. - A proposal to enshrine abortion rights in federal law [failed]( yesterday in the Democratic-controlled Senate. U.S. President Joe Biden urged Democrats yesterday to redouble their efforts to overcome voters’ [anger]( over inflation and to retain control of Congress by drawing sharper contrasts with Republicans. Polls indicate that Democrats are at risk of losing both the Senate and the House. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [The UK and EU Have Two Common Enemies Now: Raphael and Ashworth]( - [US Politicians Can’t Handle the Truth About OPEC: Javier Blas]( - [Germany Rises Above History to Back Ukraine: Leonid Bershidsky]( Deepening crisis | Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has defied calls to resign, pledging instead to form a new government after violent clashes escalated a months-long [crisis]( over food and fuel shortages. The opposition has declined his offers of a unity government without constitutional change that would reduce the powers of the presidency. [Niluksi Koswanage]( explains what could happen next. Sri Lankan Army Commando Regiment officers patrol during a curfew in Negombo yesterday. Photographer: Buddhika Weerasinghe/Bloomberg Explainers you can use - [Why Abortion, Too, Has Democrats Raging at Filibuster]( - [How Germany’s LNG Terminals Will Morph Into Green Hydrogen Hubs]( - [What Are Stablecoins? Why Did TerraUSD Go So Wobbly?]( Trade no-show | The lack of US free-trade deals with Southeast Asian nations is [undermining]( Biden’s efforts to strengthen ties with the region’s leaders at a summit this week in Washington. Instead of boosting access to the American market, the main US priority in Asia has been bolstering defense ties as part of an effort to counter China. Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( weekdays from 12 to 1 p.m. ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2 p.m. ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here]( or check out prior episodes and guest clips [here](. News to Note - Shanghai continues to find Covid-19 cases in the community, [damping]( prospects for an easing of the punishing lockdown that has confined millions of people to their homes for more than a month. - North Korean leader Kim Jong Un ordered all cities into quarantine after the state for the [first time]( said it has the coronavirus within its borders. - Hong Kong’s security police [detained]( four prominent democracy activists yesterday, including a 90-year-old Cardinal, prompting condemnation from the US and “extreme attention” from the Catholic Church. - Russia’s oil [revenues]( are up 50% this year even as trade restrictions following the invasion of Ukraine spurred many refiners to shun its supplies, according to the International Energy Agency. - Ten more European gas buyers have opened [accounts]( with Gazprombank, doubling the total number of clients preparing to pay in rubles for Russian gas as Putin demanded. And finally ... Surging international food prices will hit African economies the hardest and may [trigger]( social unrest if governments fail to cushion the blow, Oxford Economics Africa says in a report. As [Monique Vanek]( explains, the war in Ukraine, bans on food exports such as palm oil, supply chain glitches and a drought curbing the US wheat crop have sent prices skyrocketing. A woman pours food from a container at an internally displaced persons camp in Ouallam, Niger, on May 3. Photographer: Issouf Sanogo/AFP/Getty Images Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022