Divided over oil

The West’s Gulf Arab allies have been hesitant to swing behind sanctions on Russia. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( More than two months into the war in Ukraine, the European Union has reached a historic decision to wean itself off Russian oil. It’s OPEC+ that could decide, however, if the pain is felt more deeply in the Kremlin or the pockets of Berliners. The oil-exporting cartel’s alliance with Russia has complicated the West’s push for bigger production increases to ease inflationary pressure that’s threatening to derail the world’s economic recovery. Key reading: - [EU Can’t Rely on OPEC for Help Quitting Russian Oil]( - [EU Import Ban Could Knock Another 10% Off Russia’s Oil Output]( - [Oil Advances Before OPEC+ Meet After Surging on EU Russian Ban]( - [Russian Oil Embargo Risks More Inflation Trouble for Europe]( - [Germany Says Ready to Halt Russian Oil After EU Agrees Embargo]( Festering tensions between the U.S. and traditional Gulf Arab allies including Saudi Arabia, mean they’ve been hesitant to swing behind sanctions on Russia. All that, in addition to capacity bottlenecks, mean OPEC+ is likely to stick to its planned, modest, output increase when it meets today. That leaves European consumers grappling with higher energy prices while Russia, a major crude exporter, potentially reaps the benefits. The EU ban will likely be phased in over six months, giving member nations time to seek alternative energy sources and Moscow a chance to find other buyers to the east, as it’s already doing. China is a big market but even for major Western allies like India, the lure of Russian oil is hard to resist. European leaders sought to persuade Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during his three-day tour this week, not to blunt the impact of their penalties by soaking up spare Russian oil. So far, however, the efforts to muster international support for the campaign to isolate Moscow have foundered, reinforcing the bifurcation of the global economy into NATO and its friends on one side, and Russian President Vladimir Putin and his on the other. That could leave European consumers facing a bigger squeeze. — [Lin Noueihed]( Petroleum cracking towers at the Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez petroleum refinery in Nizhny Novgorod, Russia. Source: Bloomberg Click [here]( to follow Bloomberg Politics on Facebook and share this newsletter with others too. They can sign up [here](. Global Headlines Stalled advance | Russian forces have been [slowed]( by supply line and morale problems in southern and eastern Ukraine, and haven’t made the progress they wanted, according to the Pentagon. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said 344 people have been evacuated from in and around the besieged city of Mariupol, where a three-day daytime ceasefire is due to start today. - The U.S. rushed a cyber team to Lithuania to help [defend]( against online threats that have risen since the invasion of Ukraine. - French President Emmanuel Macron will [meet]( German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin on May 9, the day Putin holds an annual military parade in Moscow to mark victory in World War II. Offered shelter | Sweden and Finland are starting to win [assurances]( of U.S. and U.K. help if they’re threatened by Russia in the period between an expected application to join NATO and eventual protection under the military alliance’s collective security umbrella. The best guarantee would be to “keep the ratification process as short as possible,” Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said. Energizing issue | Abortion-rights supporters are more [galvanized]( than opponents by the prospect of the U.S. Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, a new poll found, hinting at how a leaked draft opinion may shape the congressional midterm elections in November. About 42% of voters who lean Democratic said it’s more important to vote for a candidate who agrees with their stance compared to 31% of Republicans. - Abortion advocacy groups said donations for them grew [exponentially]( after the draft opinion to overturn the 1973 ruling that legalized the procedure was leaked. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Ukraine Has High Hopes as a Victorious Nation: Leonid Bershidsky]( - [Why Japan and Germany Are Ready to Fight Once Again: Ian Buruma]( - [Trump Nod Delivers for Ohio Republican: Jonathan Bernstein]( Poll pressure | Boris Johnson is bracing for a [drubbing]( in today’s U.K. local government elections. The prime minister has been engulfed in scandal for months, and with inflation causing the biggest fall in living standards since the 1950s, voters are expected to punish his Conservatives. But, as [Alex Morales]( reports from the campaign trail, the main opposition Labour Party is also under pressure. Explainers you can use - [Why Hong Kong’s Election Features Only One Candidate]( - [Why the Solomon Islands’ China Pact Has U.S. Riled]( - [What the Fed’s ‘Quantitative Tightening’ Plans Mean]( New contender | Kayode Fayemi, an influential Nigerian governor and former head of a prominent civil-society organization, entered the race for president of Africa’s biggest oil producer and largest economy in elections scheduled for February. Check out our [rundown]( of the at least two dozen contenders, all men, who have announced their bids so far. Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( weekdays from 12 to 1 p.m. ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2 p.m. ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here]( or check out prior episodes and guest clips [here](. News to Note - The Biden administration is [weighing]( tough new sanctions on Chinese surveillance-tech giant Hikvision over alleged human rights violations in Xinjiang, sources say. - Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison denied there’s a [growing rift]( with the Solomon Islands, after the Pacific nation’s leader accused Australia of treating his country like children with guns. - Brazil’s presidential front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva says Zelenskiy shares part of the [blame]( for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as he believes the leader failed to negotiate more with Moscow. - The number of U.K. exporters fell in the two months since Russia’s invasion, underscoring the impact that [sanctions]( against Moscow is having on global trade. And finally ... A power crisis in India that’s caused hours-long blackouts, halting manufacturing lines and triggering street protests, is forecast to [continue]( for months. As [Rajesh Kumar Singh]( reports, despite a short reprieve from a blistering heat wave with temperatures as high as 46 degrees Celsius (115 degrees Fahrenheit), households and businesses face ongoing disruptions as coal stockpiles shrink at power plants and fuel imports falter on prices that have surged since the war in Ukraine. A farmer pours water on himself at a wheat farm in the Ludhiana district of Punjab, India, on Sunday. Photographer: T. Narayan/Bloomberg Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022