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Higher rates, a flash crash, and the MLIV Pulse survey.Higher ratesTraders in the money market expect the Federal Reserve, which meets this [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Higher rates, a flash crash, and the MLIV Pulse survey. Higher rates Traders in the money market expect the Federal Reserve, which meets this week, to raise rates by 50 basis points to quell inflation. That would be the biggest rate increase in 22 years. Meanwhile, Treasury 10-year yields are now hovering around 3%, levels that we haven't seen [since 2018](. Traders expect the Bank of England to also raise rates when it meets on Thursday. Flash crash Citigroup Inc.'s London trading desk was behind a [flash crash]( that sent European shares tumbling on Monday. A trader made a mistake “inputting a transaction,” Citigroup said late last night, after a knee-jerk selloff in Swedish stocks in five minutes wreaked havoc, wiping out 300 billion euros ($315 billion) at one point and dealing a fresh setback to the bank’s yearslong efforts to improve controls. Also in big banks, German prosecutors carried out a raid on the Frankfurt offices of [Morgan Stanley]( as part of their wider probe into the controversial Cum-Ex scandal that robbed tax payers of billions of euros. MLIV Pulse Survey The results of last week’s [MLIV Pulse Survey]( are in. A clear majority of the 807 market participants project the 10-year yield will climb above 3.15% -- peaking only in the third quarter -- while 41% reckon it will eventually hit 3.4% from about 2.9% currently. Some 25% of MLIV readers expect the Fed will be forced into a 75 basis-point hike down the road. Oh, and the rock song that springs to mind when they think of monetary policy? Highway to Hell. To take part in this week’s survey, which focuses on the market fall out of the war in Ukraine, [click here](. Stocks steady [U.S. stock futures](, the dollar, and 10-year yields were steady as traders geared up for the Fed meeting. S&P and Nasdaq futures traded little changed as of 5:30 a.m. New York time. In Europe, energy, travel and autos were the strongest performing equity sectors. U.S. 10-year yields stalled again near 3%. Bloomberg dollar spot index is flat. Gold and oil were down. Bitcoin rose, but hasn't reclaimed $40,000. Coming up... Today's economic data includes the final March durable goods and factory orders release, as well as March's JOLTS job openings, all crossing at 10 a.m. Central bank speakers are limited, given this week's rate decisions coming up from the Fed and Bank of England. We do have European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde scheduled to take part in a Q&A at 9 a.m., having also participated in today's Eurogroup meeting. DuPont de Nemours Inc., Biogen Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Starbucks Corp. are among the companies reporting earnings. What we've been reading Here's what caught our eye over the past 24 hours. - [Russia dodges default](. - Africa could help [replace Russian gas](. - [Hot housing market](. - What [Kim Kardashian]( wore at the Met Gala. - U.S. allowed to [seize megayacht](. - [Boris Johnson]( partied his way to a thrashing. - U.S.[job openings]( remained high this spring. And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning On the [latest episode of Odd Lots](, we talked with Bloomberg's own Javier Blas about the wild world of commodity trading houses. If you buy into the [Zoltan Pozsar "Bretton Woods 3.0" way of thinking](, then these shops are going to be crucial to understanding how the world works. Not only do they connect commodity buyers with producers all around the world, but they do it on borrowed money. And so as commodities get more costly and more volatile, that eats up financial balance sheets, and creates all kinds of potential new strains. In a weird way, the discussion reminded me of crypto trading in two ways. 1) The first is simply that in commodities, you can have all kinds of weird price dislocations that create profit opportunities for traders with the knowledge and moxie to exploit them. Both markets can fragment in weird ways, to the point where substantial arbitrage opportunities open up if you're willing to put in the effort to close them. Doing so can take energy and creativity, and Javier walks through all the times commodity trading shops have gone into difficult areas of the world in order to conduct a trade. 2) The other big one is the obvious regulatory challenge. As Javier points out, there's no global record keeping of all the commodity trades that happen. Sure, you can have a record of an oil futures trade. But physical trading can happen anywhere, including the movement of oil from one ship at sea to another ship at sea. How do you track that? How would you make entities record that. In crypto, you can obviously see all the trades that happen say, on Coinbase or FTX or Binance, but also a big part of crypto are peer-to-peer transactions that don't take place on an exchange. Maybe there's a record of them on the blockchain, but not always. A person could load up a thumb drive with one bitcoin and then sell it to someone else for physical cash. Who would know? Or people might use some kind of mixer to obfuscate the transaction trail. Plus every country is going to have their own regulatory requirements, and crypto is designed to cross borders. With a typical financial asset (like a stock or a bond) what you're buying is a legal claim to some asset or some cash flows. And so from a regulatory perspective, it's straightforward to track the asset. If in fact what you're buying is a legal claim, you're always going to want an official recording of your purchase. That's how you can enforce your claim. With a crypto or commodity, you're buying the thing itself, and not a legal claim to it per se. As Javier explains, the regulatory landscape for commodities trading is extremely difficult, and I think it's a warning about how big of a headache it could end up being for crypto, which has many similar properties. Check out the podcast on [iTunes]( or [Spotify]( or check out the [transcript here](. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter [@TheStalwart]( Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? [Subscribe to Bloomberg.com]( for unlimited access to trusted, data-driven journalism and subscriber-only insights. Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. 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