Have we reached peak watch?

Prices are cresting. What does it mean? [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Hi! I’m [Chris Rovzar]( and I’m the editor of Bloomberg Pursuits. Every member of my team has a specialty, from the excellent [Kate Krader]( who knows everything about food and restaurants, to [Hannah Elliott]( who has driven every insane car in existence. Over the years, my own specialty has become watches. A decade ago, I didn’t know anything about fancy timepieces—and I certainly didn’t own one. But now, after working closely with many of the top Swiss brands, and through our partnership with watch publication [Hodinkee](, I know probably too much. Lately, the market has been going absolutely insane. The 12 best watches I saw over four days at Watches and Wonders. Source: Brands There are waiting lists that stretch into the several years at Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet. You can no longer just walk into a boutique and emerge wearing a top model. And if you are lucky enough to buy a new one, you can immediately flip it on the secondary market for twice or even three times what you paid; even a budget Omega x Swatch collaboration [is going for 30 times the list price]( on EBay. [The fervor over the top watches]( at these brands (Daytonas and GMTs at Rolex, Nautiluses at Patek, and Royal Oaks at AP) has caused people to look to other brands, which has boosted interest in similar sports watches [like the Vacheron Constantin Overseas](. Actor Paul Newma’s Rolex Daytona reference 6239 watch was sold for a whopping $18 million at auction in 2017. Photographer: Henry Leutwyler/Contour by Getty Images One of the first questions people ask me when they find out that I have such a ridiculous area of expertise is: “Is this market overheated? Will it ever come down?” And looking at the data, so far, there’s no end in sight. According to McKinsey, the size of the pre-owned watch resale market [will reach $29 to $32 billion in 2025](, up from $18 billion in 2019. It seems like I get pitched on a new startup every day that is trying to get into this pre-owned marketplace business. As for new watches, the Swiss companies that produce the most coveted pieces [keep their production strictly limited](, so as long as there’s steady demand, the sense of exclusivity will remain, and they’ll be playing catch up to fill orders. A Vacheron Constantin Overseas Chronograph Ref. 5500V/110A-B148 Photo Illustration by 731. Watch: Justin Mastine-Frost. Background: Getty Images BUT. At a party at the beautiful new Vacheron Constantin flagship on 57th Street in Manhattan this week, to celebrate a water-themed art installation by Melissa McGill, the crowd was buzzing that a certain tide was turning. Average prices on the secondary market for some top models, particularly the AP Royal Oak and Patek Nautilus, [have begun to finally dip](. It’s too soon to know if this is the start of a trend, or exactly why this is happening, but my guess from talking to collectors is that people are getting annoyed at the absurdity of the pricing. It’s almost offensive to spend 3x list price for a watch—especially one like the Nautilus, which [Patek discontinued at its hottest moment](. …although collectors can already line up for a new Nautilus ref. 5711, in green. Source: Hodinkee It can seem like the market is being manipulated to inspire these competitive frenzies, which are great advertising for the brands but generally unpleasant for shoppers. One collector I talked to feels obnoxious wearing his Nautilus now; another, who owns a rare Rolex Submariner that he loves, says he is too worried it will get damaged or stolen. He rarely wears it these days—and that’s no fun. This is the Audemars Piguet Royal Oak owned by the man who created it, designer Gerald Genta himself. Sotheby’s Geneva is selling it on May 10 with a high estimate of 500,000 CHF. I think it goes rather well with my $89 Gap jacket, don’t you? Photographer: Chris Rovzar/Bloomberg I personally hope that the madness around certain top brands will cause interest to spread to other watchmakers who are doing excellent work—including Swiss brands at lower price points, like [Frederique Constant](, [Montblanc](, and [Baume & Mercier](, and [creative innovators]( who are cropping up [elsewhere around the world](. Watches and Wonders Meanwhile, I just got back from Geneva, were I saw the new wares from dozens of watchmakers at the Watches and Wonders fair. Below you can find my picks for the best, as well as some other stories from [our special package in Bloomberg Businessweek]( all about watches. [The Best Watches of 2022, From Geneva’s Big Show]( These will burn up your social media feed—and burn a hole in your pocket. [The Best New Ladies’ Timepieces for 2022]( These are the highlights from the annual fair in Geneva, plus commentary from top female collectors. [Five Female Watch Collectors Weigh In on What They Want]( Attention, watchmakers: It doesn’t have to be bling, bling, bling all the time. [Cartier’s Squishy Watches Are Like Nothing We’ve Ever Seen]( The storied jeweler’s new Coussin Collection includes timepieces with flexible diamond- and sapphire-encrusted cases [Bulgari Makes World’s Thinnest Watch, Plus NFT, for €400,000]( Not to sound like a broken record, but Bulgari just broke another record. A little bit about Hermès. One of the watch brands I wanted to highlight this year was [Hermès, which has really been making strides]( in the stuffy Swiss industry since the late 1990s, when it was only making quartz fashion watches. I got to talk to Hermès timepieces creative director Philippe Delhotal, and Guillaume De Seynes, executive vice president of Hermès and a sixth-generation member of the luxury house’s ruling family, about their mission to get people to take their watches seriously. Spoiler: It’s working. [( The Hermès Arcea Le Temps Voyageur being assembled. Photographer: David Marchon According to Morgan Stanley, revenue for the watchmaking department at Hermès skyrocketed in 2021, pushing them into the top 20 Swiss watchmaking brands for the first time ever. They aren’t the ones selling like hotcakes on the secondary market—yet—but they’re making cool pieces that people want to buy new. This is a brand to keep your eye on! I absolutely love their new worldtimer watch from this year, the Arceau Le Temps Voyageur. Find the feature link below, and two other interesting profiles of major luxury houses who are doing great watchmaking. [How Hermès Grew Past Fashion Watches to Join Top Swiss Maisons]( [Louis Vuitton Makes Watches That Have Serious Watch Fans Gasping]( [Against Luxury Headwinds, Cartier Bets on the Past to Protect Its Future]( What else I’m reading. The Times [ran a very interesting column]( this week about how BMW, Porsche, and other German industrial powerhouses are trying to push their Nazi ties into the blurry past. Really worth reading.  Like Justin, the Pursuits deputy editor [who wrote last week’s newsletter](, I too loved the A24 film Everything Everywhere All at Once. The great pop culture writer Alex Abad-Santos [talked to a quantum physicist about multiverses]( and tried to get to the bottom of what could be out there, all around us. It’s a great follow-up if you can’t stop thinking about the movie. The book that’s on all my friends’ bedside tables currently is [Let’s Not Do That Again](, by Grant Ginder. It’s a hilarious romp about global politics, family, and the things we didn’t even know we’d do for love. I recommend it highly. Also on [our Spring Reading List](, I just finished Anna, the biography of Vogue editor Anna Wintour by the great fashion writer Amy Odell. It’s so fun for magazine lovers and anyone who cares about fashion. It comes out next month, and [you can pre-order it here](. You had questions! Thanks for submitting more questions via [Instagram]( and [Twitter]( and [e-mail](mailto:daydreams@bloomberg.net?subject=I have a question). Here are some I felt like I could answer. In the watch world, is there any correlation between price and quality? This is complicated, but basically yes, there is some correlation between price and quality. Rolex and Patek Philippe, for example, make extremely high-quality watches with great, complex movements inside. However, does that mean they’re priced at exactly what they are worth, if you factor in materials and labor costs? Absolutely not. There is a lot of marketing that goes into making you covet a Rolex. Just look at how many airports and tennis tournaments have Rolex-branded clocks ([and backgammon sets](), and that goes into the price, too. Plus the standard luxury markups for exclusivity and prestige. Tudor, Rolex’s sister brand, has the same ingredients and sells similar watches at half the price. What’s so special about a Rolex Submariner? Glad you asked. Source: Rolex But luxury has always incorporated a willingness to spend more for ineffable qualities like [craftsmanship](, elusiveness, beauty, and so on. And the market is clearly deciding that these watches are currently worth a whole lot. [Even NFT versions are booming](. The most expensive watch I ever bought was a $3,860 [Nomos Tangomat](, for my wedding. It’s a beautiful watch with a great movement inside, and that’s enough for me. Why do people put pools on yachts? They are literally floating in a big pool. This is not strictly true—sometimes your boat is in choppy or cold water and a pool is nice and calm and heated. But pools are just the beginning when it comes to yacht toys. [Look how crazy they get](. If you think a pool is nuts, have you heard of underwater scooters? Source: Sublue I have an old Omega watch that I inherited from my grandfather. What’s the best way to sell it? There are tons of great places to sell a watch these days, and luckily we did a whole recent story outlining [the 10 best emporiums and why]( you should chose one or the other. Good for you! Try and have some fun with it. Are there any watches that don’t tell you what time it is? Oh god, yes. But sometimes they’re cool, like [this $246,000 Van Cleef & Arpels watch]( that kind of tells you the hours by opening up little flower buds on the dial. Lady Arpels Heures Florales Source: Van Cleef How is luxury reinventing itself in the digital world. Well, at last, at least two decades too late, almost every major luxury brand is finally selling their goods online. So that’s something. But if you want a look into the future of fashion in the multiverse, [read this excellent story by Mark Ellwood]( from a recent issue of Bloomberg Businessweek. Why do people still buy those dress shirts with a different color collar? I will never know the answer to this question. Luxury brands are already making millions in the metaverse. Illustration: Rad Mora Come back next week for deputy editor Jim Gaddy, who we call “Jock Jims,” because we force him to try out all the new fitness fads. He’ll have all sorts of ideas about boutique gyms and other wellness trends, so shoot him [an e-mail](mailto:jgaddy@bloomberg.net?subject=Jock Jims) or [DM](. Be sure to [follow @bloombergpursuits on Instagram]( to keep up with all of our stories and to send in questions. Same with [@luxury on Twitter](! Follow Us Like getting this newsletter? 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