Widespread Russian shelling, commodities rise, and more Wall Street earnings. Intensifying There’s still little hope of peace in Ukraine, wi
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Widespread Russian shelling, commodities rise, and more Wall Street earnings. Intensifying There’s still little hope of peace in Ukraine, with Russian bombs and missiles hitting [locations around the country](, including the western city of Lviv. Even though President Vladimir Putin last week said that talks are at a [dead end](, billionaire Roman Abramovich [travelled to Kyiv]( in a bid to restart negotiations. On the market side, there is an increasing risk that Putin’s demand for gas payments in rubles will lead to a de facto gas embargo in Europe as lawyers in the bloc draft a finding showing payments in the Russian currency would [violate sanctions](. Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi said Europe can reduce energy dependence on Russia [sooner than previously expected](.Â
Crude rally The commodity space remains very sensitive to any fresh news on supply disruptions. West Texas Intermediate rallied to [as high as $108.55 a barrel]( in early trading after Libya closed its biggest oil field due to protests and [warned of further outages](. Agricultural commodities are also [rising again]( this morning as fears over deliveries from Ukraine remain as the war continues. In precious metals, gold is closing in on [$2,000 an ounce](. Cryptocurrencies are missing out on the rally, with Bitcoin [trading below $39,000](. Earnings Bank of America Corp. and Bank of New York Mellon Corp. results are due today amid what has been a [surprisingly strong overall performance]( from Wall Street earnings season. For BofA today investor focus will be on loan growth while for BNY Mellon it will be about how the bank is controlling expenses. Elsewhere in corporate news, DiDi Global Inc. shares listed in New York plunged in early trading after the company decided to hold an [extraordinary general meeting]( to vote on whether to end its presence on the NYSE. Markets slip Markets in Australia, Hong Kong and much of Europe are closed today making for a quiet start to the week. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.9% with India and Japan leading losses. China’s decision to [cut the reserve ratio requirement]( for most banks by 25 basis points on Friday was met with further [falls in stock prices](. By 5:50 a.m. New York time S&P 500 futures were pointing to a [drop at the open]( and the 10-year Treasury yield was at 2.86% ahead of the start of trading in the U.S. Coming up... It is a quiet day on the economic data front. The National Association of Home Builders market index for April is published at 10:00 a.m. There will likely be more focus on St. Louis Fed President James Bullard’s [speech later this morning](. The International Monetary Fund/World Bank spring meeting begins today. What we've been reading Here's what caught our eye over the weekend. - Odd Lots: This is the challenge of securing the [battery supply chain](.Â
- Goldman Sachs see U.S. recession [odds at 35% in next two years](.
- U.S. bond market gives notice it is no longer [a one-way street](.Â
- [Global investors flee China]( fearing that risks eclipse rewards.
- U.S. [natural gas]( hits 13-year high.Ă‚
- Evergreen ship lodged in Chesapeake for a month [is moving again](.
- Huge explosion on the sun unleashes [major solar flare]( on Easter. And finally, here’s what Lorcan’s interested in this morning While a short term view shows that the dollar is surging higher, the reality is the greenback is weakening at the fastest pace since the 1980s. Looking at everything the Federal Reserve has done in the past seven years — hiking rates 225 basis points, then cutting them back to near zero, ending asset purchases, then restarting and almost doubling the balance sheet — it seems that the greenback has been astonishingly resilient to central bank actions.  However, that is taking a mechanical approach to Fed policy. Looking at the dollar index, we are comparing the U.S. currency to its international peers. It may be strong against them, but there is a hint of “best horse in the glue factory” about this. The strength measure that matters for most dollar users is not how many euros or pounds they can buy, but rather how much stuff their cash can purchase. It is the dollar exchange rate against stuff that matters. Luckily, we have a name for that too — inflation. This chart is the CPI index inverted, showing the accelerated devaluation of the dollar in recent years. Slowing the drop in this line is the Fed’s real target. Later this week we will hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is likely to confirm that we are in for some [rapid policy tightening](. Currency markets have already reacted, but the only thing that really matters is whether the central bank can end the crash in the dollar vs stuff. Follow Bloomberg's Lorcan Roche Kelly on Twitter [@LorcanRK](. Special Daily Brief: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine [Keep up with the latest news]( on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, one of the worst security crises in Europe since World War II. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Follow Us Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things - Americas newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox.
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