Weapons over sanctions

More sanctions are unlikely to change Vladimir Putin’s thinking. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( With the war in Ukraine in its seventh week and Russia pressing its campaign more forcefully in the east, the calculus on Moscow appears to be shifting. The U.S. and Europe would never say it officially, but the unprecedented sanctions on Russia haven’t had any discernible impact on the war. Even the further penalties in the works, including potential bans on more Russian energy, are unlikely to change Vladimir Putin’s thinking. Key Reading: - [EU Urges Member States to Send Ukraine Weapons in Days Not Weeks]( - [General Who Ran Syria Operation to Lead Russia Troops in Ukraine]( - [Tracking the Sanctions Imposed on Russia Over Ukraine Invasion]( - [Biden to Press India’s Modi on Russia Ahead of Defense Meeting]( - Follow the latest with our [rolling coverage]( Putin seems willing to tolerate the economic and financial squeeze, and as long as the president can force his people to do the same, sanctions won’t lead him to pull back in Ukraine. Indeed, Russian troops are pressing forward in the eastern Donbas region, having largely given up their campaign in the north after weeks without progress. Putin would no doubt like to claim at least a partial win by May 9, when Russia marks its victory day in World War II. Moscow has also streamlined its military leadership in Ukraine under one commander. So far the only thing that has slowed Putin down has been his military’s fumbles in northern Ukraine. Weapons sent by Europe and the U.S., especially anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, have proven a boon for the Ukrainian forces mounting fierce resistance on the ground. As Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said last week, Ukraine needs three things: “weapons, weapons and weapons.” Allies are responding. They are agreeing to send more offensive arms including tanks, though fighter jets may still be off the table. NATO members are talking about training Ukrainian forces on more modern equipment rather than just sending them Soviet-made kit. European Union diplomatic chief Josep Borrell says “this war will be won on the battlefield.” That may sound self-evident, but it reflects the reality that sanctions probably won’t deter Putin. More losses in Ukraine just might. — [Rosalind Mathieson]( A Ukrainian multiple rocket launcher shells a Russian position near Luhansk in the Donbas region yesterday. Photographer: Anatoli Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images Sign up [here]( for the Special Daily Brief: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and share this newsletter with others too. They can sign up [here](. Global Headlines French runoff | Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen return to the campaign trail today after making it through to the April 24 presidential [runoff](. It’s a rematch of the 2017 election that Macron easily won, but polls suggest a much closer contest this time. They will be racing to pick up support from the candidates who dropped out in the first round, especially among the 22% of voters on the far left. - Macron’s team painted Le Pen as “an ally of Vladimir Putin” today as it seeks to stop the far-right leader from taking [control]( of the EU’s second-largest economy as Russia continues its war against Ukraine. Gas diplomacy | Algeria will agree to boost gas exports to Italy by 50% as part of a deal to be signed during a trip to the North African nation by Prime Minister Mario Draghi, sources say. [Read]( how it’s an accord that could see Algeria replace Russia as Italy’s largest supplier, assuming the target can be met. Frustration building | The spread of China’s largest Covid-19 outbreak in two years despite an extended lockdown of Shanghai’s 25 million people is [weighing]( on a fragile economy and straining global supply chains. The 26,087 new infections recorded yesterday in the Chinese financial hub was an all-time high, and residents are struggling to get access to food and medical care. - Farmers in China’s most important region for corn, soybeans and rice are facing a myriad of challenges, [endangering]( the nation’s ability to secure enough grain for this year. Bulk carrier positions as of April 11 mapped in yellow. Dotting the sea off Chinese ports are 477 bulk cargo ships waiting to deliver resources from metal ore to grain into the country. Lines of vessels carrying raw materials have [lengthened]( since Shanghai initiated its city-wide lockdown at the end of last month. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Macron’s Rematch Against Le Pen Is No Easy Ride: Lionel Laurent]( - [Japan’s Subtle Covid Policy Is a Lesson for China: Gearoid Reidy]( - [U.S. Should Show India It’s Better Partner Than Putin: Editorial]( Political change | Pakistan’s lawmakers are set to choose [opposition]( leader Shehbaz Sharif as prime minister today after former cricket star Imran Khan was ousted in a no-confidence vote. Khan’s exit came after he fell out with the army over a range of issues, including a rocky relationship with the U.S., and his management of the economy that’s seen inflation surge. Explainers you can use - [What Led to the Downfall of Pakistan’s Prime Minister]( - [Why Japan Will Struggle to Do Without Russian Energy]( - [Why the EU Is Getting Tough on Hungary’s Orban]( Uphill battle | Australia’s center-right Liberal National coalition government is focusing on a strong economy as it tries to win a fourth straight term in a May 21 vote, yet it’s far behind the opposition Labor Party in opinion polls. [Ben Westcott]( lays out the top five [priorities]( for the country’s next leader. Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( weekdays from 12 to 1 p.m. ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2 p.m. ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here]( or check out prior episodes and guest clips [here](. News to Note - Indonesian President Joko Widodo appeared to [dismiss]( a plan by a senior cabinet official to extend his time in office with thousands of students set to protest in Jakarta over a possible constitutional change to allow a third term. - Rishi Sunak asked for a formal [review]( into whether he properly declared his financial interests, as the U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer tries to defuse a row over his tax affairs. - Mexican voters overwhelmingly [backed]( President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador to finish his six-year term in a recall referendum set by the leader himself, although turnout was low. - Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong warned the U.S. against [isolating]( China over the war in Ukraine by framing it as a battle between democracies and autocracies. - South Africa’s African National Congress elected an ex-mayor charged with corruption to a top post in a key region, dealing a [blow]( to President Cyril Ramaphosa’s efforts to clean up the party. And finally ... Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa is under pressure to step down as citizens demand accountability for decisions leading to Asia’s fastest inflation and food and fuel shortages. His once-formidable majority in parliament is gone, yet the leader is adamant he won’t quit. [Niluksi Koswanage]( explains the [scenarios]( that lie ahead for the island nation as it’s rocked by protests. A demonstration against the economic crisis in Colombo on Saturday. Photographer: Ishara S. Kodikara/AFP/Getty images Like Balance of Power? [Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com](, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022