Macron’s battle royale

Emmanuel Macron is still ahead in runoff polls, but Marine Le Pen is gaining. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( A month ago, France’s Emmanuel Macron looked like Europe’s wartime leader, rallying the European Union to impose a series of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine and seeing his domestic popularity soar. That appeared to make this weekend’s presidential vote an afterthought. But foreign policy rarely wins elections and that’s holding true in France. Key Reading: - [Emmanuel Macron’s Win This Sunday No Longer Looks a Done Deal]( - [Macron’s Defense Pitch Is Heard in Europe But Risks Flopping at Home]( - [Macron Makes Last-Minute Push as Gap With Le Pen Narrows]( - [Far Right Set the Terms of France’s Election One Meme at a Time]( - [How Far-Right Gains Make French Vote Harder to Call]( What was a 12 point gap between Macron and his closest rival, nationalist Marine Le Pen, has shrunk as she’s toured towns and villages, casting herself as the defender of the “little ones” against the “president of the rich.” Le Pen has pledged to reverse the biggest effect of the war felt by the French — a surge in the cost of living — by slashing gasoline prices and taxing big energy companies. Several candidates, including Macron, have focused on immigration, showing it also remains central for voters. There are 12 people running and the top two will go through to a runoff. Macron and Le Pen are well ahead of the rest, so attention has turned to who will be more attractive to supporters of the losing candidates and what proportion will stay home for the second round if they don’t feel the first-vote winners represent them. Macron is still ahead in runoff polls, but Le Pen is the one with a tailwind. She was quick to disavow Russian President Vladimir Putin after the invasion of Ukraine and support for her has risen steadily since. If Macron loses on April 24, that will be the end of his strongly pro-Europe policies, including for greater “strategic autonomy.” Were Le Pen to become president it would put the far-right in control of France, setting the nuclear power and permanent UN Security Council member on a nationalist, nativist path. — [Alan Katz]( An election campaign event for Macron in Paris on Saturday. Photographer: Benjamin Girette/Bloomberg Sign up [here]( for the Special Daily Brief: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and and click [here]( for this week’s most compelling political images. Global Headlines Civilian massacre | More than 30 people were [killed]( and at least 100 injured in missile strikes allegedly fired by Russian troops on civilians gathered at a train station to be evacuated from Ukraine’s Kramatorsk in the eastern Donetsk region. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said Russia used cluster munitions in the attack. There was no immediate response from Moscow. - As Russia refocuses its invasion on the east, [recognition]( is growing in Kyiv and allied capitals that the window to prevent Ukraine’s partition may be narrow. - European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [visits]( Kyiv today for talks with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Energy focus | The EU agreed to stop coal imports from Russia in its first move [targeting]( Moscow’s crucial energy revenue. The bloc’s fifth sanctions package also includes a ban on most Russian trucks and ships from entering the EU. Member states agreed to start work on a sixth round of penalties, with several countries pushing to include oil restrictions, sources say. - Policymakers and companies in Japan and South Korea are moving to [curb]( Russian coal imports, adding to pressure on Moscow. The United Nations General Assembly voted to [suspend]( Russia from the UN Human Rights Council over its conduct in Ukraine, although dozens of nations abstained despite the Ukrainian ambassador’s pleas to defend “the innocent lives lost” since the war began on Feb. 24. Xi’s challenge | Parents forced to separate from their children, locked-up residents chanting “we want to eat” and “we want freedom.” As much of the world moves on from the pandemic, the [desperate]( scenes emerging from China’s most global city, Shanghai, have shocked even once-staunch supporters of President Xi Jinping’s Covid Zero strategy. - Shanghai is transforming conference centers and conscripting neighboring provinces to create [isolation]( facilities for hundreds of thousands of people. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [This Backdoor Keeps Russian Oil Flowing Into Europe: Javier Blas]( - [The Street Has Spoken. Will the Strongmen Listen?: Ruth Pollard]( - [Facing AI’s Potential to Create Chemical Weapons: Lisa Jarvis]( Making history | After the U.S. Senate [confirmed]( her as the first Black female justice on the Supreme Court, Ketanji Brown Jackson suddenly finds herself with a lot of time on her hands. As [Greg Stohr]( explains, she will have a three-month wait to fill the seat that won’t open until Justice Stephen Breyer retires in late June or early July. Explainers you can use - [Why Pakistan’s Leader Is Facing the Risk of Ouster]( - [What’s a ‘Non-Dom’ and Why Is U.K. Politics Abuzz?]( - [Mandates, ‘Don’t Say Gay’ and Other U.S. Culture Wars]( Political gamble | Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan will [address]( the nation today after the Supreme Court overturned his plan to hold an election, a move that could see his exit from office within days. The opposition says it has the numbers to oust him in a no-confidence vote. Supporters at a rally for Khan in Islamabad on Tuesday. Photographer: Asad Zaidi/Bloomberg Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( weekdays from 12 to 1 p.m. ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2 p.m. ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here]( or check out prior episodes and guest clips [here](. News to Note - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen may not get the support from U.S. companies she is counting on to [win]( backing for a global tax deal. - International food prices are [surging]( at the fastest pace ever and worsening a global hunger crisis, the UN says, as the war in Ukraine chokes crop supplies. - Peru raised interest rates to a 13-year high to tame soaring inflation that’s triggered mass [unrest]( in recent days. - Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez met with King Mohammed VI of Morocco, seemingly ending a years-long [feud]( between Madrid and its biggest African business partner. - South Africa is experiencing its worst [infestation]( of brown locusts in decades with heavy rains allowing the crop-eating insects to multiply rapidly. And finally ... More than 800 million of Africa’s inhabitants may have been [infected]( by Covid-19, with only one in almost 100 cases detected, the World Health Organization said. The assessment, which is available as a pre-print under peer review and is based on about 150 studies published in 2020 and 2021, shows how underreported the impact of the disease on the world’s poorest continent may have been. A health worker administers a Covid-19 vaccine to a student at Duduzile Secondary School in Mpumalanga, South Africa, on March 9. Photographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg Like Balance of Power? [Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com](, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. 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