Putin’s acolytes

Orban leads what he calls an “illiberal democracy” based on Putin’s model. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( For all of the talk of Western unity in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, important divisions persist. Nowhere is that more evident than in Hungary and Serbia, where Russian President Vladimir Putin’s closest pre-war European allies are poised to win re-election on Sunday. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the European Union’s longest-serving leader, is on track for a fourth consecutive term in a race a united opposition is making unusually tight. In neighboring Serbia, Aleksandar Vucic is expected to clinch a second stint as president after rising to dominance a decade ago. Key Reading: - [Orban May Win Hungary Election by Comfortable Margin, Poll Shows]( - [Putin’s Old Ally in EU Faces Tough Vote as War Rages Next Door]( - [How Orban’s Putin Ties Are Adding to Election Stakes: QuickTake]( - [Half of Serbs Want to Stay Neutral Between EU-Russia, Poll Shows]( - [Vucic Welcomes Russian Overture as EU Pressure on Serbia Builds]( Both nationalist leaders, who’ve campaigned on warnings that their countries are under threat from abroad, condemned Putin’s invasion. Orban quickly backed EU sanctions but refuses to join fellow NATO members in giving Ukraine arms or letting them cross Hungary. Like Germany, he opposes banning Russian oil and gas. Vucic’s rejection of the sanctions may destabilize his balancing act between Serbia’s longstanding political and cultural ties with Moscow and the goal of joining the EU. Yet their ties to Putin run deeper. Orban leads what he calls an “illiberal democracy” based on Putin’s model, and has spent more than a decade extending his power over all aspects of Hungarian society. He has demonized the LGBTQ+ community and non-European immigrants while helping his family and allies grow rich on government contracts. Vucic, too, has built a power base that’s tried to crush dissenting voices in the media and faces accusations of endemic corruption. Both leaders may face deeper isolation if they win their elections as expected. It might also cement their conviction that Putin’s model works. And for Europe, that’s a problem. — [Michael Winfrey]( Orban meets with Putin in Budapest in 2019. Source: Anadolu Agency/Kremlin Press Office Sign up [here]( for the Special Daily Brief: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and click [here]( for this week’s most compelling political images. Global Headlines Divided house | While they didn’t invite Russia’s war, some residents of Ukraine’s besieged city of Mariupol are now more interested in [ending]( it than defending the nation’s sovereignty, [Marc Champion]( and [Daryna Krasnolutska]( report. Putin’s troops didn’t get the warm welcome their initial strategy assumed, but he may still be able to impose a Russian future on Mariupol. - Russia said two Ukrainian military helicopters made a rare [strike]( across the border, hitting an oil tank facility in the city of Belgorod, hours before the two sides are due to resume talks by video link today. Not telling | Investors looking for signals on China’s plans to tackle Covid-19, the economic slowdown or the war in Ukraine were left [disappointed]( by a mysteriously brief statement on the latest meeting of the Communist Party’s Politburo. The 114-character readout, by far the shortest of President Xi Jinping’s decade-long tenure, said only that members “studied recent work.” The cost of heating a home, taking a shower or cooking a meal rose to new [heights]( for millions of people in the U.K. today as household energy prices hit a record, days before a payroll tax increase comes into force. Pointed message | EU leaders plan to tell Xi at a virtual summit today that China will [hurt]( its global stature if it hands Russia an economic or military lifeline. “No European citizen would understand any support to Russia’s ability to wage war,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Judgment of History Will Weigh on Hong Kong: Matthew Brooker]( - [Putin Would Be Crazy to Cut Off Europe’s Gas: Liam Denning]( - [Biden’s Oil Straw May Not Drink Russia’s Milkshake: Mark Gongloff]( Decision time | China’s Covid Zero strategy has saved lives while keeping the economy on track, but a new wave of virus cases is [highlighting]( the growing costs and is starting to shift the policy debate. How Beijing moves forward will have momentous consequences for a population of more than 1.4 billion and a world economy already reeling from the war in Ukraine. - Shanghai started part two of its phased [lockdown]( today, confining some 16 million people living in the western half of the city to their homes after ending a four-day isolation in the east. Explainers you can use - [Why Supply Chains Are Entering a Third Year of Chaos]( - [How the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Works]( - [How Biden’s Billionaire Minimum Income Tax Would Hit the Wealthy]( Slipping grip | The U.S. denied Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s claim that President Joe Biden’s administration is seeking to oust his government, which lost its majority in parliament ahead of a no-confidence vote on Sunday. In a televised address yesterday, Khan said Washington was behind a threatening [letter](, calling it evidence of an “international conspiracy” to unseat him, without publicly releasing the document. - Pakistan’s political upheaval is adding to a surge in the nation’s [default]( risk and triggering further losses in its bonds and currency. Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( weekdays from 12 to 1 p.m. ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2 p.m. ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here]( or check out prior episodes and guest clips [here](. News to Note - Russia’s military has been [jamming]( satellite navigation systems used by commercial aircraft since the invasion of Ukraine, according to a French safety regulator. - The U.S. plans to give an additional $204 million in humanitarian [aid]( “to help the people of Afghanistan.” - Former President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, gave “valuable” [information]( during questioning by the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, a panel member said. - Soaring costs for food staples in import-dependent Middle Eastern and North African countries are putting people’s [resilience]( at a “breaking point,” according to the World Food Programme. And finally ... U.S. teenage students [suffered]( emotional and physical pain during the relative isolation of Covid-19, reporting high rates of abuse, sadness and distress during early 2021. As [Fiona Rutherford]( writes, government surveys show roughly half of high-schoolers cited emotional abuse by a parent and one in 10 physical abuse. About a quarter of them experienced hunger or economic insecurity. A student walking outside his school. Photo credit: Getty Images Like Balance of Power? [Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com](, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022