5 things to start your day

[Bloomberg Markets]( [SUBSCRIBE]( [Facebook Share]( [Twitter Share]( [LinkedIn Share]( #?cmpid=BBD041917_MKT&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=170419&utm_campaign=markets Forward Guidance   Pound holds over $1.28 after May calls election, French vote is still too close to call, and markets call time on the reflation trade. April. May: 'June' Yesterday's surprise election call by British Prime Minister Theresa May helped briefly push the [pound over $1.29](. The currency has since unwound some of those gains and was trading at $1.2815 by 5:16 a.m. Eastern Time. The timing of the election seems like an astute political move from May, as the U.K. economy is in something of a sweet spot, with [low unemployment]( and consumers yet to feel the pinch from rising inflation. The latest polls have her Conservative Party [21 percentage points]( ahead of the nearest rivals. French coin toss If the U.K. election looks like a one-way bet, the result of first round of the French presidential election due this Sunday is [increasingly uncertain](. Independent Emmanuel Macron and the National Front’s Marine Le Pen are expected to be the candidates to make it through to the second-round vote, but with their lead in the polls remaining quite narrow, Communist-backed [Jean-Luc Melenchon]( has emerged as a possible spoiler in Macron's run to the presidency. While hedging costs for investors [have jumped](, some [see an opportunity]( in French-election risk. Reflation let down Goldman Sachs Group Inc. dropped their [long dollar positions](, citing a slowdown in the reflationary momentum of the U.S. economy. In the mutual-fund industry, the same idea seems have caught on, with money flowing out of U.S. equities as investors [step away from reflation bets](. In bond markets, Treasury yields have fallen to the [lowest level since November]( across all maturities, with risks of further declines as key technical levels are breached. Meanwhile, bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in June have [fallen below 50 percent](. Markets mixed Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.4 percent, while Japan's Topix index closed [broadly unchanged]( as the yen slipped against the dollar. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was [0.4 percent higher]( at 5:50 a.m. as automakers rallied following strong sales numbers. S&P 500 futures [gained 0.3 percent](. Trump weighs options U.S. President Donald Trump faces [no easy options]( when it comes to preventing North Korea from developing a long range missile capable of delivering a nuclear warhead to the United States. It seems increasingly likely that any military strike on Kim Jong Un’s regime would be a [unilateral act]( by the U.S., as Asian allies are cool on the idea. Vice President Mike Pence issued a fresh warning, saying the world mustn't doubt Trump's resolve following “[decisive action](” against Syria and Afghanistan. Here's what you should read today  - Markets start to ponder the [$13 trillion gorilla]( in the room. - Don't panic yet about U.S. consumers' latest [first-quarter slump](. - Here's where [London bankers are moving]( after Brexit. - China's [$8.5 trillion bank industry]( is back in full swing. - Europe's [coal power is disappearing]( quicker than anyone thought. - Banks and clients tussle over [what it will cost]( to read analysts. - No more frontiers creates an [index problem]( for hottest stocks. An Asia edition of Five Things is launching soon. [Sign up here](hash=66347455587f59b9a9381110d6c52a7c?cmpid=BBD041917_MKT&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=170419&utm_campaign=markets) to be among the first to start getting it delivered to your inbox.  And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning It's pretty clear by now that any notion of a 'Trump Trade' is stale and tired, and at this point nobody should be using that term with a straight face (in fact I fantasize about there being a TV show where if anyone uses that term unironically, a bucket of green slime will fall on their head). But it is useful to bear in mind that after the election we really saw two big themes overlap at once. One part was indeed optimism about Trump's policies, which sent rates soaring through mid-December. The other big trend was a strong global recovery that had really started gathering steam last summer. It's that other theme -- the global one -- that's been overshadowed this year, and it ought to be getting more attention. One interesting thing to look at is what's going on with industrial metals, where the situation has gotten ugly lately. [Iron ore]( has been crumbling for a while, [and yesterday we saw heavy selling]( in other metals like zinc and nickel over fears about Chinese demand and global oversupply. The Bloomberg Industrial metals subindex is now down over 7 percent from the levels seen in early March. You can't say much about the economy from just one measure, but the selling is worth watching as the global component of the recovery is assessed.   You received this message because you are subscribed to the Bloomberg Markets newsletter.   [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022