Difficult work ahead

An improved humanitarian situation is Ukraine’s “minimum” goal. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( Talks between Ukraine and Russia today in Turkey are raising some hopes of a short cease-fire in the war President Vladimir Putin started 34 days ago. Success would bring into sharper focus the terms of any eventual peace deal and heighten some of the dilemmas facing the U.S. and its allies. The negotiations are testament to Ukraine’s relentless defense against a Russian invasion that was ordered to secure President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s surrender and instead failed to take the capital, Kyiv, or any other major cities. Russia’s state-run Tass newswire reported that Moscow’s negotiators hope for quick progress. Key reading: - [NATO Allies Are Split on Whether They Should Talk to Putin]( - [Abramovich Suffered Suspected Poisoning During Ukraine Talks]( - [Biden Says Putin Remark Showed Outrage, Not Change in Policy]( - [Russia Transfers $102 Million Bond Coupon to National Depository]( - Follow the latest with our [rolling coverage]( Still, suspicions persist that Putin may just be seeking a short interlude to resupply and reorganize Russia’s military. Past cease-fire deals have repeatedly collapsed in the eastern Donbas region, which Moscow says it wants to “liberate.” Ukraine is making clear its “minimum” goal is an improved humanitarian situation for people trapped in devastated cities or displaced by war. Beyond that loom tough negotiations about Russia’s occupation of Donetsk and Luhansk, the future of Crimea annexed by Putin in 2014, and a potential neutral status for Ukraine backed by security guarantees involving a host of Kyiv’s allies in return for dropping NATO membership aspirations. And that’s before any demand for Russian reparations. So far, the U.S. and its allies have maintained remarkable unity in supplying Ukraine with weapons, though fewer than it wants, while imposing crushing sanctions on Russia. Where divisions are emerging is on whether to engage with Putin. Some like France and Germany see no alternative if NATO wants to avoid a broader confrontation and secure a Russian withdrawal. Others like the U.K. and central and eastern European states believe Putin has shown he can’t be trusted and doubt he’s serious about a peace deal. If the negotiators in Turkey can achieve a truce that holds, then the hard work of answering all these questions begins. Ukrainian evacuees after passing through the Medyka border crossing into Poland yesterday. Photographer: Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP/Getty Images Sign up [here]( for the Special Daily Brief: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and share this newsletter with others too. They can sign up [here](. Global Headlines Worsening impact | The cost of China’s Covid-19 lockdowns is probably $46 billion a month, or 3.1% of GDP, in lost economic output, an economist at the Chinese University of Hong Kong estimates. That could [double]( if other cities follow the tight restrictions imposed in the financial hub of Shanghai, says Professor Zheng Michael Song. - Shanghai is [barring]( everyone from leaving their homes even to walk their dogs as local daily infections jumped to a record 4,477 today. Economic storm | Global supply strains that started to ease in early 2022 are worsening on [headwinds]( from the war in Ukraine and China’s Covid lockdowns, threatening slower economic growth and faster inflation across the world. The latest turmoil is being acutely felt in Germany, which is heavily reliant on Russian energy and suppliers across Eastern Europe. Cathay Pacific Airways plans to reroute its New York-Hong Kong service to avoid Russian airspace, in what would be the world’s [longest]( commercial passenger flight. The distance of 16,618 kilometers (10,326 miles) would surpass Singapore Airlines’s New York service, which takes about 17-and-a-half hours to cover 15,349 kilometers, FlightRadar24 data show. Food worries | With a Covid-hit global economy now reeling from Russia’s war in Ukraine, prices of basics like bread, meat and cooking oils have jumped across the world. For the most vulnerable this poses a genuine risk of [hunger](. Elsewhere, it triggers worries about demand destruction, a phenomenon when goods get too pricey to purchase. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [First Help Ukraine to Survive, Then Beat Putin: Clive Crook]( - [Shanghai’s Much-Too-Gentle Covid-Zero Policy: Shuli Ren]( - [Add German Rain to Investors’ Checklist of Worries: Javier Blas]( Party pooper | London police said today that they’ll recommend [fines]( for U.K. government staff and officials close to the prime minister who broke pandemic lockdown rules. Boris Johnson is unlikely to be touched by the first round of penalties over the so-called Partygate scandal, a source says. - Johnson will host a [dinner]( for Conservative members of Parliament as he seeks to rebuild relations with his lawmakers after months of scandal and tensions. Explainers you can use - [Space Station Faces Dire Future After Russia’s Ukraine Invasion]( - [A Reliable Recession Indicator May Be Sending a False Alarm: Ren]( - [Bloomberg Suspends Operations in Russia, Belarus on Ukraine War]( Politically volatile | Peru’s president, Pedro Castillo, survived the second [impeachment]( attempt in four months after a marathon eight-hour debate yesterday. Since his shock win last year after running on a slogan of “no more poor people in a rich country,” his government has reeled from one crisis to the next. Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( weekdays from 12 to 1 p.m. ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2 p.m. ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here]( or check out prior episodes and guest clips [here](. News to Note - The U.S. Justice Department has thrown its support behind legislation that would bar major [technology]( platforms like Google and Amazon from giving preferential treatment to their own products at the expense of competitors. - A federal judge in California ordered a law professor advising Donald Trump to turn over [documents]( to a Congressional committee probing the Jan. 6 insurrection, saying it was “more likely than not” the former president had committed crimes. - Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was admitted to a [hospital]( after suffering abdominal discomfort yesterday. He’s been hospitalized several times after being stabbed on the campaign trail in 2018. - After racing to build capacity and meet once seemingly insatiable orders for Covid-19 shots, the vaccine industry is facing [waning]( demand as many late-to-market producers fight over slowing uptake. And finally ... Plastic is a notorious source of pollution: unsightly on land, deadly to marine wildlife. Even when it is recycled, it’s difficult to fathom where it ends up. Bloomberg Green reporters decided to find out by placing tiny digital trackers inside three used plastic items that were being recycled by Tesco, the U.K.’s biggest supermarket chain, and traveled across Europe to follow them. What they [discovered]( was surprising. Dumped recycling including plastic packaging from around Europe in Adana province, Turkey. Photographer: Yasin Akgul/AFP/Getty Images Like Balance of Power? [Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com](, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022