Dangers of cornering Putin

Western leaders worry what Putin might do if he’s desparate [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( One of Vladimir Putin’s favorite childhood stories shows why Western leaders are worried that setbacks in Ukraine may escalate a war that has already killed thousands of people and displaced millions. As the Russian president tells it, when he was a child he would chase rats in his apartment building in Soviet-era Leningrad, now St. Petersburg. Once he cornered a large one: It attacked him, causing him to flee in shock. “That’s why everyone should remember, it’s better not to corner anyone,” he told a Russian TV interviewer in 2018. Key reading: - [Putin Stirs U.S. Concern That He Feels Cornered and May Lash Out]( - [NATO Boosts Forces in East Amid Chemical Incidents Warning]( - [Putin Likely to Make Nuclear Threats If War Drags, U.S. Says]( - Follow the latest with our [rolling coverage]( Now Putin is increasingly on the back foot. Ukrainian forces have largely halted his assault, killing or wounding an estimated tens of thousands of Moscow’s troops. And economic sanctions are beginning to hit hard. That’s raised concern that he may lash out even more dangerously. As [Peter Martin]( reports, officials in U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration say Putin could resort to blanket bombing Ukrainian cities or using chemical — or even tactical nuclear — weapons. The concern isn’t unfounded: At the start of the war, Putin ordered his nuclear forces to assume “special combat readiness” and Russian troops have staged dangerous assaults around Ukrainian nuclear plants. U.S. officials say there’s no evidence of Russian preparations for imminent chemical or biological strikes, and the Kremlin denies such intentions. NATO leaders pledged yesterday to step up their defenses and are studying ways to retaliate if the need arises. And Putin’s brinkmanship has worked to some extent: The aversion to a potential nuclear conflict is a key reason why NATO won’t risk a direct engagement with Russia’s military. But as signs mount his invasion is stumbling, their worry is whether a cornered Putin, like his childhood rat, will resort to a desperate move. — [Michael Winfrey]( Ukraine claimed to have sunk the Russian navy landing ship Orsk in Berdyansk yesterday. Photographer: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Sign up [here]( for the Special Daily Brief: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and click [here]( for this week’s most compelling political images. Global Headlines Breaking dependence | A political [agreement]( today between Biden and the European Union will pave the way for additional imports of liquefied natural gas from the U.S. to help the bloc replace Russian supplies. The deal provides a platform for commercial pacts that will need to follow for shipments to begin. - While Biden’s plan is drawing applause from the fossil-fuel industry, it risks [undermining]( his campaign to combat climate change. Not buying it | As Russians turned to [panic-buying]( in the wake of sweeping sanctions over Putin’s invasion, one item remains in plentiful supply: government reassurances that everything’s under control. The near-daily declarations aren’t getting through. Consumers contending with the new reality of economic isolation have resorted to hoarding. - EU officials suspect China may be ready to [supply]( semiconductors and other tech hardware to Russia as part of an effort to soften the impact of sanctions. A shopping mall in Moscow on March 16. Photographer: Konstantin Zavrazhin/Getty Images Europe Russia is set to [erase]( 15 years of economic gains by the end of 2023, the Institute of International Finance said. The economy is expected to contract 15% in 2022, followed by a decline of 3% in 2023, leaving gross domestic product where it was about a decade-and-a-half ago. Step to peace | The warring sides in Ethiopia agreed to a conditional [truce]( in the northern Tigray region, where a 16-month civil war has driven millions of people from their homes and brought hundreds of thousands to the brink of starvation. The tentative agreement is the closest the two sides have come to a cease-fire since the conflict began and may serve as a step toward the resumption of humanitarian aid. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Maybe Putin Really Is Crazy Enough to Use Nukes: James Stavridis]( - [Three Ways China Presaged Its Stance on Ukraine: Matthew Brooker]( - [Imran Khan’s Fall From Grace Is His Own Fault: Mihir Sharma]( Throttling tech | EU negotiators have put the finishing touches on a landmark law they say will break a stranglehold on digital ecosystems by tech giants such as Google, Apple and Facebook. The Digital Markets Act, which takes effect next year, is designed to stop corporations from [stifling]( competition by confining users to their platforms and carries fines of as much as 10% of a company’s global annual sales for an initial breach of the law. Explainers you can use - [Russia’s Role in Keeping Chemical Weapon Threat Alive]( - [How Kim Jong Un Keeps Advancing His Nuclear Program]( - [Why SWIFT Holds Center Stage in Sanctioning Russia]( Island base | Government ministers in Canberra are alarmed about a draft security [agreement]( between China and the Solomon Islands that would give Beijing’s naval vessels a safe harbor some 1,200 miles from Australia. The document was declared authentic by the Australian Broadcasting Corp. after it first appeared on social media, but it is unclear how far along the negotiations are. Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( weekdays from 12 to 1 p.m. ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2 p.m. ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here]( or check out prior episodes and guest clips [here](. News to Note - Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam deflected [blame]( for the city’s failure to vaccinate the elderly against Covid-19, suggesting the media was hindering the government’s efforts. - Kim Jong Un oversaw the successful launch of a new, larger intercontinental ballistic missile, and [warned]( North Korea must be ready for “long-standing confrontation” with the U.S. - Former President Donald Trump sued Hillary Clinton, the Democratic Party and several others, alleging a [conspiracy]( to malign his character and cast doubt on the legitimacy of his 2016 U.S. election win. - The super yacht reportedly owned by sanctioned Russian billionaire Alexey Mordashov is headed [home]( to the port of Vladivostok, while the transponders on others were turned off or sailed to regions with less scrutiny. And finally ... Senate confirmation hearings for U.S. Supreme Court nominees are long and often contentious. The one for Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson has featured highs, lows and viral moments from senators on both sides of the political aisle. [Ella Ceron]( and [Kelsey Butler]( explore the [highlights](. Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson swears in to the Senate Judiciary Committee confirmation hearing in Washington on Monday. Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg Like Balance of Power? [Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com](, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022