A new Ukraine challenge

Europe may have no choice but to tighten the screws on Russia still further. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( U.S. President Joe Biden is due in Europe this week as Russia’s war on Ukraine enters a new phase. Military analysts say that Russian forces have failed to achieve President Vladimir Putin’s original goal of swiftly taking Kyiv along with other major cities and deposing the Ukrainian government. Key reading: - [EU Set to Line Up With Biden to Warn China Against Helping Putin]( - [Russia Uses Hypersonic Weapons as War Enters Bloodier Phase]( - [China Will Work to De-Escalate War in Ukraine, Diplomat Says]( - Follow the latest with our [rolling coverage]( Ukraine’s troops surprised the Kremlin with their resistance, while poor Russian planning and execution have contributed to make the war look like one of attrition instead. Michael Kofman, a specialist on the Russian armed forces at the Washington CNA think tank, said on Twitter yesterday that the war’s “first chapter” has ended and the next “could prove even uglier,” with greater bombardment of civilian areas. Mariupol shows what might be to come. Russia stands accused of war crimes in the southern port city after shelling a theater, a maternity hospital and residential buildings. Ukraine rejected a Russian deadline of today to hand over the city. Russia says it’s hitting military targets, but Mariupol follows a pattern of destruction deployed by Putin since coming to power, in the Chechen capital Grozny, in the Syrian city of Aleppo, and now in Ukraine. That poses a dilemma for Biden and fellow NATO leaders when they meet in Brussels. Ukrainian forces have resisted strongly on the ground. But long-range missiles fired from Russia present an altogether different challenge. The shift in strategy also tests the appetite for further sanctions, straining transatlantic unity. Some European states are unwilling to follow the U.S. and target Russia’s energy sector for fear of the damage to their own economies. But with the war becoming more entrenched, sooner or later Europe may find it has little choice but to tighten the screws further. — [Alan Crawford]( This satellite image on Saturday shows the aftermath of the airstrike on the Mariupol Drama theater and the area around it. Satellite image ©2022 Maxar Tec Sign up [here]( for the Special Daily Brief: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine and share this newsletter with others too. They can sign up [here](. Global Headlines Difficult ties | India has stood out as one major democracy [reluctant]( to censure Russia, and billions of dollars in weapons deals mean that’s unlikely to change soon. As [Sudhi Ranjan Sen]( reports, New Delhi plans to push back by arguing the purchases are needed to counter China’s growing military assertiveness and its other neighbor, Pakistan, with whom it has a history of tense relations. - India is under [pressure]( from its Quad alliance partners to take a stronger position against Russia. Australia raised the issue at a bilateral meeting, days after Japan did the same. Easing restrictions | Hong Kong [scrapped]( some travel curbs and laid out a road map for easing social-distancing measures, seeking to appease a city frustrated by two years of pandemic restrictions even as its worst ever Covid-19 outbreak flares. “There is a need for our society to function continuously and for the economy to move forward progressively,” Chief Executive Carrie Lam said. - Shanghai reported a surge in cases after expanding its mass testing program, adding to challenges [facing]( China’s Covid [Zero]( strategy. China and Russia’s trade relationship has become more [complicated]( since the war started more than three weeks ago, raising questions about the future flow of energy, metals and crops between the two powerhouses. Switching supplier | Qatar said it agreed to work on [supplying]( Germany with liquefied natural gas as Europe’s biggest economy seeks to reduce its dependence on Russian energy. German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said during talks in Doha yesterday that his government plans to fast-track two LNG import terminals in Germany, according to QatarEnergy. - U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson is turning to nuclear and wind [power]( in an attempt to boost Britain’s domestic energy security. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [How the UN Can Expel Russia and Remain Relevant: Thomas Grant]( - [The Great Man Theory Makes a Comeback: Matthew Yglesias]( - [Ukraine Can Learn From Finland’s Stand in 1939: James Stavridis]( Making history | Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson goes before a U.S. Senate panel considering her nomination to be the first Black woman on the Supreme Court. While she won’t shift the ideological balance on the conservative-controlled court, the 51-year-old Jackson would add a [fresh]( voice to its outnumbered liberal wing and potentially serve for decades. Ketanji Brown Jackson. Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg Explainers you can use - [What to Know About Supreme Court Nominee Ketanji Brown Jackson]( - [New York City’s Renewed Vibrancy Is Hiding Deep Economic Pain]( - [Oil Surges as Ukraine War Tightens Supply, Mideast Tensions Rise]( Default risk | Debt markets in some of the world’s most vulnerable nations are [flashing]( warning signals as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine increases stress on fragile economies. Concern over whether Moscow would deliver on its interest payments this month has led investors to consider which other countries are at risk of failing to pay. - The poorest nations will pay China and its lenders almost $14 billion this year in debt servicing costs, according to the Green Finance & Development Center at Fudan University in Shanghai. It [urges]( more support for debt restructuring for those that need it. Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( weekdays from 12 to 1 p.m. ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2 p.m. ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here]( or check out prior episodes and guest clips [here](. News to Note - A China Eastern Airlines Boeing Co. 737-800NG plane carrying 132 people [crashed]( in the southwestern province of Guangxi, state media reported. - Yemen’s Houthi rebels [attacked]( at least six sites across Saudi Arabia over the weekend, including some run by state oil giant Saudi Aramco. - Former President Donald Trump’s political action committee ended February with $110 million in the bank, but for a second month didn’t [donate]( any of it to other Republicans. - Three in four Japanese people [worry]( that China may take military action against Taiwan or islands in the East China Sea it’s in dispute with Tokyo over, according to a survey by Kyodo News. - The head of Somalia’s oil-rich Puntland, Said Abdullahi Deni, has said he’s running for the [presidency]( this year, following a meeting with new members of parliament from that region. And finally ... The impact of China’s increased reliance on coal to combat an energy shortage is already [evident]( from space. A plume of methane, which traps over 80 times more heat than carbon dioxide in its first two decades in the atmosphere, was detected by the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-5P satellite near a remote coal mine in Inner Mongolia on March 1 — the first time it spotted the powerful greenhouse gas in that location. A plume of methane observed by satellite near the Manglai Surface Mine in Inner Mongolia, China. Source: Kayrros SAS Like Balance of Power? [Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com](, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022