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Uncertainty over Ukraine, economy check, and a warning that crypto could threaten financial stability. Remaining cautiousWhile Russia announ [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Uncertainty over Ukraine, economy check, and a warning that crypto could threaten financial stability. Remaining cautious While Russia announced this morning that more troops would be returning to their bases, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that there’s [no proof of de-escalation](. With exercises close to the [Ukrainian border and in Belarus]( not due to end until Feb. 20, it may be several days before there is [clarity on troop movements](. Traders, struggling to evaluate Moscow’s intentions, remain on edge with demand for havens [fluctuating with each new headline](. Economy check This morning’s retail sales numbers are expected to show a seasonally-adjusted 2% rise in January. Any impact from omicron during the month will likely be offset by surging auto sales, according to Bloomberg Intelligence economists. Analysts will be looking for signs of [consumer pressure from inflation]( in the data. Also today the minutes from last month’s Federal Reserve meeting are released. Investors will read them closely to gauge FOMC members’ appetite for a [more aggressive approach]( to policy normalization. Crypto A report this morning from the Financial Stability Board — set up by the G-20 in the wake of the financial crisis — warned that digital assets could soon [threaten global financial stability](. The report highlighted the scale of the asset class, increasing interconnectedness with traditional finance and its structural vulnerabilities. Bitcoin remained mostly unmoved by the release of the report with the largest cryptocurrency holding above $44,000 this morning. Fans of drawing lines on charts suggest a [target of $53,000]( for the digital asset may be possible. Markets mixed With investors in wait-and-see mode over developments in Ukraine, and data due later today it has been a relatively quiet session so far. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.4% while Japan’s Topix index closed 1.7% higher. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index was broadly unchanged at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time with oil producers and miners recovering some of yesterday’s losses. S&P 500 futures [pointed to a small drop at the open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was 2.041%, [oil rose]( and gold was slightly higher. Coming up... The U.S. January import index accompanies the retail sales release at 8:30 a.m. Canada January inflation data is also at that time. U.S. industrial and manufacturing production for the month is at 9:15 a.m. At 10:30 a.m. the latest U.S. crude stockpiles numbers are released. The U.S. sells $19 billion of 20-year notes at 1:00 p.m.  Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks at 11:00 a.m. with the Fed minutes published at 2:00 p.m. Kraft Heinz Co., American International Group Inc., Analog Devices Inc., Cisco Systems Inc., DoorDash Inc., Marathon Oil Corp. and Barrick Gold Corp. are among the many companies reporting. What we've been reading Here's what caught our eye over the last 24 hours. - Treasury market liquidity [is eroding](. - How [nationalism in China]( has dethroned Nike and Adidas. - The U.S.-Mexico [avocado dispute]( is already causing shortages. - [Bird flu]( menaces U.S. chicken industry. - U.K. inflation overshoot adds to brutal [cost of living squeeze](. - Hilton has now nearly [outperformed Zoom Video]( since pandemic hit. - Incredibly rare stellar merge may have [created strange stars](. And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning Despite a booming job market, consumer sentiment is extremely low. And the popular thing to claim is that it's because real wages are down and people are falling behind. Except maybe that's not true. [As my colleague Katia Dmitrieva reports](, there's new research [from the Dallas Fed]( which shows that real average hourly earnings are in fact up since the start of the pandemic. Measuring real wages is somewhat tricky, because there have been so many compositional changes to the labor market (people quit jobs and get new ones) that it's hard to get a pure apples-to-apples measure. Nonetheless, there's a good reason to think the common story about wages not keeping up is wrong. On the other hand, people are still unhappy. This might suggest a far simpler explanation: they just don't like rising prices period, regardless of whether their personal earnings have kept up. As [George Pearkes]( of [Bespoke Investment Group]( notes, sentiment about the economy tracks pretty closely with the so-called Misery Index, which just crudely adds inflation and unemployment together. When either inflation or unemployment spike, people express displeasure about the state of the economy. (The chart here is comparing Z-scores of both the misery index and UMich Sentiment.) Meanwhile, as you can see in this chart, over the last couple of years (really since the start of the pandemic), real average weekly earnings (white line) have essentially just been the inverse of the price of an average gallon of gasoline (teal line). So basically if you say something like "real wages are falling," there's a good chance that all you're saying is that the price of gasoline is going up. Even if it's true that overall people are keeping up, they don't like to pay more, [hence the White House messaging on getting prices down](. (One more thing to note on that last chart. Real wages exploded to the upside in the spring 2020. Of course, that was a terrible period for the labor market with a record number of layoffs. That alone should make anyone too reluctant to think that they're a key measure for consumer or labor market health.) Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter [@TheStalwart]( Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Follow Us Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things - Americas newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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