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Decisive week for Ukraine, commodities rally, stocks fall. Tense daysA weekend call between President Joe Biden and President Vladimir Putin [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Decisive week for Ukraine, commodities rally, stocks fall. Tense days A weekend call between President Joe Biden and President Vladimir Putin [produced no breakthroughs]( with Russia continuing to deny it plans to invade Ukraine while accusing the U.S. of stoking “[hysteria](.” Diplomatic efforts [continue this morning]( with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visiting Kyiv today ahead of a meeting with Putin in Moscow tomorrow. The list of countries advising their citizens to leave Ukraine continues to grow while commercial airlines [cut back their services]( to the country. Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson warned that a potential Russian invasion could “tip several economies into [an outright recession](.” Commodity rally The tensions over Ukraine are creating something of a perfect storm in the commodity space. Oil is paring some of its gains this morning after a surge which pushed global benchmark Brent as [high as $96.16 a barrel]( and WTI close to $95 in Asian trading. Natural gas prices and electricity prices in Europe [jumped more than 10%](. Base metals rose. There are also big moves in the agricultural space with [wheat rising]( amid fears over cargo flows in the Black Sea. All of which is [very bad news]( for policy makers hoping for a [slowdown in inflation]( in the second half of this year. Data dependent  Speaking of policy makers, there were some attempts to cool rate expectations on both sides of the Atlantic. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly pushed back against aggressive action saying it is important to be “[measured in our pace]( and importantly, data-dependent.” Kansas City Fed President Esther George dismissed the possibility of an move between scheduled meetings. In Europe, the governors of the Italian, Finnish and Irish central banks all pushed back against rate-hike speculation, with Ireland’s Gabriel Makhlouf saying a June move is “unrealistic.” Markets tumble Global equity markets are firmly in the red this morning as investors continue Friday’s [flight from risk](. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.4% while Japan’s Topix index closed 1.6% lower. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index fell 2.3% by 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time with every industry sector lower lead by banks and travel stocks. S&P 500 futures pointed to [more selling at the open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.922% and gold held on to [Friday’s rally](. Coming up... With a fairly blank economic data slate this morning focus will be on policy maker comments with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard speaking at 8:30 a.m. and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde addressing the EU parliament at 11:15 a.m. It is 13F filings date for U.S. funds. Arista Networks Inc., Continental Resources Inc. and Avis Budget Group Inc. are among the companies reporting results. What we've been reading Here's what caught our eye over the weekend. - Odd Lots: Tim Duy on the [huge challenge]( the Fed now has in 2022. - Here’s what the pandemic [has in store for the world]( next. - A [stock investor’s playbook]( for the new world of rising rates. - U.S. is exporting every molecule of [liquified natural gas]( possible. - Just [3% of white collar workers]( want a full time office return.. - The carry trade [is faltering](, just as it began to deliver gains. - Distant galaxies and the true nature of [dark matter](. And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning There's a tremendous amount of debate and disagreement regarding the state of the economy right now. Fortunately, in the coming months we're going to get some clarity about who was right. If inflation continues to accelerate from here, it will show that the Fed was, in fact, right to start pivoting so hard to inflation-fighting mode. Or it will show that rate hikes ultimately are a poor tool for fighting inflation. Or it will show that the Fed ought to have moved sooner, and made a fateful mistake by letting things get as hot as they've gotten. Or it will demonstrate that the inflation we're seeing is simply a function of the pandemic, and the price we're paying for a rapid return to normal. It's also possible that the people who warned that Fed hikes were inflationary, will be the ones to be proven correct. If inflation starts to cool soon, it will show that the doves were right, and that inflation was, in fact, transitory. Or it will show that the Fed's pivot to inflation fighting is already working, by establishing that the inflation target is still being taken seriously. Another possibility is it will show that the Fed was unjustified in having pivoted to inflation, and that it's risking cutting off the labor market recovery, before having returned to pre-pandemic levels. If employment continues to boom, that will vindicate those who favored aggressive fiscal action. Or it will vindicate those who believe that aggressive fiscal action was unnecessary, and that simply the fading of the pandemic would have been enough. It also might vindicate Fed hawks, who believe the economy can withstand rate hikes without derailing the labor market recovery. Another possibility is that it vindicates Fed doves, who believe there's plenty of labor market slack out there, and as such it's not worth taking the risk of slowing things down before job growth starts to slow. If growth starts to deteriorate, it will validate the doves who argued that it's premature to hike rates. Or it will show the spending hawks were right, that we went overboard on stimulus and that now we have to pay the price with a downturn, in order to get inflation back to normal. The next few months will be pivotal. At least we're about to get an answer as to who was right. Follow Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal on Twitter [@TheStalwart]( Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Follow Us Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things - Americas newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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