War games

What happens next will be a very significant test of efforts to de-escalate this crisis [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( Russia started its largest war games in years in neighboring Belarus today, a demonstration of military power near Ukraine as the West continues its diplomatic push to defuse tensions. The U.S. and Europe are still trying to work out how much is “war” and how much is “game” in President Vladimir Putin’s strategy to obtain binding security guarantees from them against further NATO expansion. Key reading: - [Russia Starts Major Military Drills in Belarus as NATO Watches]( - [Troubled Ukraine Peace Accords Get Fresh Push in Russia Tension]( - [Russia Undercuts Macron’s Report of Putin Deal on Ukraine]( - [Putin and Xi Close Ranks Against the West on Ukraine and Taiwan]( Russia consistently denies it plans to invade Ukraine, with some Western nations estimating it has amassed nearly 130,000 troops close to the Ukrainian border. Their concerns that things could spill into a conflict have brought a stream of Western leaders to Moscow on a scale unseen in years — French President Emmanuel Macron and the U.K.’s foreign and defense secretaries this week, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz next week — to seek a way out. Officials from Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France are meeting in Berlin today for the so-called “Normandy Format” talks — an attempt to revive the stalled Minsk peace accords on the conflict in eastern Ukraine between the government in Kyiv and Russian-backed separatists. Putin has been on the move, too, recently traveling to Beijing and meeting his ally, President Xi Jinping, on the sidelines of the Winter Olympics. Russia and Belarus say their exercises are purely defensive and that troops will return to base when they end on Feb. 20. Ukraine has started military drills today in parallel. As French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian noted today, what happens next “will be a very significant test” of efforts to de-escalate this crisis. — [Anthony Halpin]( Soldiers take part in a Belarus-Russian joint military exercise at the Brestsky training range in Belarus. Source: Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP Photo Click [here]( to follow Bloomberg Politics on Facebook and share this newsletter with others too. They can sign up [here](. Global Headlines Iran surprise | U.S. senators from both parties said they were [stunned]( about Iran’s progress toward making a nuclear weapon as talks continue in Vienna to revive a 2015 agreement that would restore limits on those efforts. The Biden administration said a deal with Iran was now in [sight](, but the rapid advances in the Islamic Republic’s atomic program meant the window for reviving the accord is narrowing. Champagne photo | The U.K. police said they would contact more than 50 people over gatherings at Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s office as a new photo [emerged]( showing him near a champagne bottle at a lockdown-rule-breaking Christmas event. While many Conservative lawmakers are waiting for the results of the investigation before deciding whether to try to oust him, some things are going in his favor, including a Parliament recess starting later today. Russia could get more than $65 billion in extra budget [revenue]( this year thanks to the oil-price rally, adding to the Kremlin’s coffers as it faces the threat of sanctions. Prices would have to stay around the current $90 a barrel to boost revenue that much, but oil at $100, which some forecasters say may not be the limit, would put gains closer to $73 billion. Popular anger | Turkey’s main opposition leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, announced he won’t pay his electricity bills until the government [reverses]( a 125% price hike announced last month, although he didn’t urge the public to do the same. Speaking from his home, he blamed the skyrocketing costs on utility privatizations that he said benefited President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s cronies. Explainers you can use - [What Experts Know About ‘Long Covid’ and Who Gets It]( - [Five Key Things to Watch for in South African President’s Speech]( - [Stock-Trading Ban for Congress Hits Pushback From Right and Left]( New fatalities | Hong Kong reported three deaths in Covid-positive patients as an outbreak [overwhelms]( hospitals in the biggest challenge to its zero-tolerance approach to the virus. Authorities are especially concerned about the elderly, with only about half of residents aged 70 and above receiving a first vaccine dose so far. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Why Did Trump Reject a Deal for His Border Wall?: Ramesh Ponnuru]( - [The Pill Changed Everything. Time for a Reboot: Therese Raphael]( - [For Kids, Mask Mandates No Longer Make Sense: Editorial]( Dangerous standoff | Libya’s fragile peace hangs in the balance as a standoff between parliament and interim Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah [threatens]( plans for ending a decade of chaos. Parliament will vote today to replace Dbeibah, who escaped unharmed from an apparent assassination attempt overnight, according to local media. He refuses to step aside before a presidential election takes place. Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( weekdays from 12 to 1pm ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2pm ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here]( or check out prior episodes and guest clips [here](. News to Note - U.K. Minister for Europe James Cleverly said legislation to allow [sanctions]( against Russia in the case of an invasion of Ukraine will be enshrined into British law today. - Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador suggested [pausing]( relations with Spain after disagreements with the government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez over the role of Spanish investment in the country. - The United Nations is [requesting]( $1.1 billion to deal with “an alarming humanitarian and protection crisis” in three northeastern Nigerian states under attack by Islamist militants. - North Korea is preparing for a military [parade]( that could come as soon as next week, after a barrage of missile tests last month forced Kim Jong Un’s nuclear arsenal back on the Biden administration’s agenda. - The percentage of the world’s population living under some sort of democracy [tumbled]( last year to 45.7% from 49.4% a year earlier, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index 2021. - China arrested a former senior official at the nation’s banking regulator over alleged bribery, adding to a long list of executives and policy makers caught up in the latest anti-graft [crackdown](. And finally ... Zanzibar, the archipelago off the east coast of Africa, has long attracted vacationers with its palm-lined white sand beaches and mix of Swahili and Islamic cultures. Now it’s touting a $2 billion plan that includes [enticing]( shipping and exploring for oil and gas but also risks clashing with environmental concerns around coastal areas and island states. Zanzibaris watching the sunset on the Indian Ocean in the historical city of Stone Town in 2019. Photographer: NurPhoto/NurPhoto/Getty Images Like Balance of Power? [Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com](, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022