Seeking an off-ramp

France and Germany turn to reviving the “Normandy Format” to ease the Russia-Ukraine crisis. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( As the West looks for a diplomatic off-ramp from tensions with Russia over Ukraine, there’s one grouping that’s again coming into focus. Amid the warnings over Moscow’s military buildup near the Ukraine border (which it has sustained for months, while denying any plans to invade), there’s a push to re-energize the “Normandy Format,” named for the location of its first informal meeting. Key reading: - [Congress Split on Sanctions While EU Keeps Quiet: Ukraine Update]( - [EU Touts Unity on Any Russia Sanctions But Won’t Show Its Hand]( - [The West Is Waiting for Germany’s Chancellor to Take Charge]( - [Biden Sees Halt to Nord Stream 2 If Russia Invades Ukraine]( - [Russia Undercuts Macron’s Report of Putin Deal on Ukraine]( It’s a collective of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France, set up to work out how to resolve a conflict between Russia and Ukraine that broke out in 2014. The Minsk accords (named for the location where they were agreed) focused in part on curtailing fighting between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian soldiers in Ukraine’s southeast. That unrest continues even now. Dogged by accusations of breaches by both Russia and Ukraine, the talks essentially broke down. Leaders have met only once under the Normandy umbrella since 2016. Now France and Germany are pushing to breathe life into Normandy, encouraged by the U.S. from afar. Chief negotiators will meet in Berlin tomorrow, following up from Paris two weeks ago. There are many obstacles to progress, including even getting a meeting at foreign minister level. The talks foundered because of fundamental differences between Kyiv and Moscow. Ukraine is engaged but views the process with some suspicion, worried, perhaps rightly, it would be the one forced to give the most away and have to engage with separatist leaders in the Donbas region. Yet the talks are one way to keep the door open with Russia. That’s especially the case as its demands for written security guarantees related to NATO are largely non-starters with the military alliance and its members, including America. The question is how hard, or even whether, Ukraine would be willing to be squeezed. — [Rosalind Mathieson]( A Ukrainian National Guard member at an urban combat training exercise on Feb. 4. Photographer: Ethan Swope/Bloomberg Click [here]( to follow Bloomberg Politics on Facebook and share this newsletter with others too. They can sign up [here](. Global Headlines History lesson | With discontent at U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson building, the [manner]( of his predecessor’s departure shows how quickly his own fate could be decided. In 2018, the number of Conservative Party lawmakers openly calling for a vote on Theresa May’s leadership was about 20 short of the threshold required. That changed overnight — although she survived that challenge and limped on for another seven months, [Joe Mayes]( writes. - In a mini-reshuffle of his team, Johnson [appointed]( Jacob Rees-Mogg to the newly created role of minister for Brexit opportunities and government efficiency. - Border controls since the end of the Brexit transition period on Dec. 31, 2020, have piled [costs]( on U.K. businesses, hit trade flows and may cause passenger chaos this year, a committee of lawmakers warned. Global dependence | Despite increasing criticism of Beijing’s determination to quash every Covid-19 outbreak, the international economy is benefiting from it. [James Mayger]( outlines how the policy has saved lives and [ensured]( that everything from iPhones and Teslas to fertilizer and car parts continues to flow to the rest of the world. India’s fight to bring down inflation is under [threat]( by the soaring cost of vegetable oil. Food prices rose in December at the fastest pace in six months, squeezing household budgets and increasing pressure on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government which already provides food aid to 800 million people, or two-thirds of the population. Republican dilemma | Mitch McConnell’s attempt to steer his party past Donald Trump’s election grievances has run into a [conundrum](. As [Steven T. Dennis]( reports, the Senate GOP leader criticized the Republican National Committee for censuring two party members on the committee investigating the Jan. 6 insurrection, but most Republicans still side with Trump’s focus on the last election rather than winning the midterms. - Chief Justice John Roberts was once in the vanguard as the U.S. Supreme Court rolled back the Voting Rights Act, but as his more conservative colleagues showed this week, he’s no longer in [control](. Explainers you can use - [Xi’s Show of Olympic Unity Masks Fight Over Ethnic Assimilation]( - [What Is at Stake for Modi in India’s Bellwether State]( - [What’s Behind Europe’s Skyrocketing Energy Prices?]( Joining in | The truck driver protest that started in Canada’s capital before spreading to shut a key gateway to the U.S. appears to be short of truckers. While the streets of Ottawa have been choked with semis as drivers rally against a mandate requiring vaccination to cross the border, the demonstration blocking Windsor, Ontario from downtown Detroit is mostly pickups and sedans, potentially signaling opposition against Covid rules has [spread](. Protesters block the roadway leaving the Ambassador Bridge border crossing yesterday in Windsor, Ontario. Photographer: Geoff Robins/AFP/Getty Images Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Why the Ukraine Crisis Matters to China and Taiwan: Hal Brand]( - [What Can Anti-Trump Republicans Actually Do?: Jonathan Bernstein]( - [​​​​​]([U.K. Cost-of-Living Crisis Is as Bad as It Sounds: Stuart Trow]( Unequal society | Record unemployment and deepening poverty in South Africa have [fueled]( calls for the government to offer a basic income grant, which would be the biggest of its kind globally. As [Prinesha Naidoo]( reports, while the idea is backed by President Cyril Ramaphosa amid waning support for the ruling party and will likely be addressed in his state-of-the-nation speech tomorrow, his finance minister and business leaders say it’s unsustainable. Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( weekdays from 12 to 1pm ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2pm ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here]( or check out prior episodes and guest clips [here](. News to Note - Peru’s Justice Minister Anibal Torres took over as the nation’s [fourth]( prime minister in just over six months, as President Pedro Castillo tries to restore stability after weeks of political turmoil. - The United Arab Emirates said a gas cylinder [explosion]( rocked the capital overnight, as the U.S. warned its citizens again to remain vigilant following a series of attacks on the Gulf country. - Hong Kong [ordered]( the 20,000-strong upscale community of Discovery Bay to be tested for Covid-19 as the city steps up efforts to battle a widening outbreak. - A U.S.-led group of democracies [condemned]( China for “suppression” of Hong Kong’s press freedoms in a statement that was “firmly rejected” by China. And finally ... Even though he’s the decisive favorite in the Philippine presidential race, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.’s chances remain uncertain three months before the vote. As [Andreo Calonzo]( explains, the national election commission still has to [decide]( on four disqualification petitions against the late dictator’s son which all cite his conviction nearly three decades ago for failing to file tax returns. Marcos during a campaign rally yesterday in Bulacan province. Photographer: Ted Aljibe/AFP/Getty Images Like Balance of Power? [Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com](, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022