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It’s jobs day, tech volatility, and hawks move bonds. Payrolls This morning’s payrolls report is a bit of a head-scratcher for economists. T [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( It’s jobs day, tech volatility, and hawks move bonds. Payrolls This morning’s payrolls report is a bit of a [head-scratcher for economists](. The high [levels of omicron]( during the survey period, the annual benchmark revisions by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and some doubts over the accuracy of seasonal adjustments in the tight labor market means forecasts for the number range from a [400,000 decline to a 250,000 increase](. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 3.9%. For traders it is difficult to see that any number would have a huge impact as the Federal Reserve is [committed to tightening already]( and any surprise could be explained away by the short-term factors outlined above. All told, this may be the least important jobs number in a long time. Multi-billion-dollar penny stocks It is not an exaggeration to say it has been [a week]( for the [record books]( in [tech stocks](. The earnings-driven moves have been giving investors whiplash, with Snap Inc. [surging more than 50%]( in extended trading after ending yesterday’s session 24% lower. Amazon.com Inc.’s results helped push Nasdaq 100 index [futures higher]( after the gauge closed 4.2% down. The revival in the sector is also helping [push cryptocurrencies higher](. There are no tech earnings of note due today. Hawkish Yesterday’s decision from the Bank of England contained a hawkish surprise when nearly half of policymakers voted for a [larger-than-expected rate hike](. In the euro area, the European Central Bank kept policy unchanged, but [comments from President Christine Lagarde]( in the press conference mean some economists now see as much as [50 basis points of tightening]( before the end of the year. Traders reacted to the change in tone by selling sovereign debt, with the yield on Germany’s five-year bond turning positive for the [first time since 2018](. There is little immediate sign of relief from inflation worries for policy makers as crude continued its rally. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate was above $91.50 while global benchmark Brent traded close to $92.50, both at the [highest level since 2014](. Markets mixed There is a lot going on in markets this morning, with investors trying to digest tech volatility and hawkish central banks, while Asian markets start to return from holiday. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.8% while Japan’s Topix index closed 0.5% higher. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.9% lower at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time, with energy companies the only sector in the green. S&P 500 futures pointed to a [small move higher at the open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.815% and [gold gained](. Coming up... The jobs report is at 8:30 a.m. Canada also updates its January employment situation at that time. The Baker Hughes rig count is at 1 p.m. In Congress, the House is set to vote on legislation aimed at making the [U.S. more competitive with China]( and boosting the domestic semiconductor industry. Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., Aon Plc, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. and Spectrum Brands Holdings Inc. are among the companies reporting earnings. What we've been reading Here's what caught our eye over the last 24 hours. - America is facing a great [talent recession](. - Ray Dalio sees U.S. [on path to civil war]( as political polarization rises.  - [Negative rates under attack]( as bond traders see hikes everywhere. - Catastrophe-bond issuance hits a [record $12.8 billion]( as extreme weather worsens. - Putin’s [financial fortress]( blunts impact of threatened sanctions. - Boris Johnson’s [key aides quit](, leaving the premier on the brink. - Earth’s water was [around before Earth](. And finally, here’s what Katie’s interested in this morning The will-they, won’t-they, OK-how-much debate over the path of Fed policy was hot enough to pause one of the most enduring trends of the past year or so: credit rating upgrades. According to Bank of America analysts, the pace of net rating upgrades for investment-grade bonds slowed to just $0.4 billion in January -- the lowest since March of last year. That follows $39.5 billion and $74.1 billion worth of net upgrades in December and November, respectively. The slowdown can be chalked up to uncertainty over the Fed’s plans, BofA strategists led by Yuri Seliger wrote Wednesday. Rating upgrades soared last year, powered by several rounds of stimulus and the end of lockdowns, which in turn fueled a rebound in U.S. companies most battered by the pandemic. However, with the era of easy money rapidly coming to a close, perhaps ratings agencies might not be so generous. Trying to roadmap the Fed’s policy path could also explain why after a boom in 2021, fallen-angel exchange-traded funds -- which track debt that has been recently downgraded from investment-grade status -- are starting to [fall out of favor](. The two major products, the $4.6 VanEck Fallen Angel High Yield Bond ETF (ticker ANGL) and the $4.3 billion iShares U.S. Fallen Angels USD Bond ETF (FALN), bled nearly $1.3 billion in January alone. That’s nearly a quarter of their combined 2021 inflows, Bloomberg data show. Follow Bloomberg's Katherine Greifeld on Twitter [@kgreifeld]( Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close. Follow Us Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things - Americas newsletter. If a friend forwarded you this message, [sign up here]( to get it in your inbox. 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