Putin’s game

Vladimir Putin is keeping the West guessing over his Ukraine intentions. [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( The U.S. and Europe told Vladimir Putin he has a choice to make on deescalating tensions over Ukraine if he wants progress on Russia’s demands for security guarantees. It’s not clear he sees it that way. The apparent indecision is paying dividends for the Russian president so far. After almost a week of intense diplomacy that concludes today in Vienna, Putin is keeping Washington and its European allies guessing over his intentions in massing some 100,000 troops near the Ukrainian border. Key reading: - [U.S.-Russia Talks End With No Signals on Putin’s Next Move]( - [U.S. Says Russia Must Make Choice on Ukraine After NATO Meeting]( - [U.S. Says Potential Russia Sanctions Won’t Crimp European Energy]( - [White House Says Bill Sanctioning Nord Stream Undercuts Talks]( - [How a Country Joins NATO (and Why Putin Cares): QuickTake]( It makes little sense for Putin to deescalate just as he’s pushed the U.S and NATO to offer engagement on issues such as medium-range missile deployments that they previously scorned. Russian diplomats at the talks have repeatedly stressed they won’t compromise on core demands for NATO to bar Ukraine and other ex-Soviet states from membership and to roll back its forces to positions they held in 1997. Even as NATO rejected those calls, Russia’s envoy at yesterday’s meeting with the alliance said that Moscow expects written proposals from the U.S. and its allies before Putin decides whether to continue discussions. So Putin can afford to wait and see what more the West may offer him before indicating his next step, without withdrawing a single tank. Delay also allows tensions to build among European states already nervous about the potential impact on them of threatened U.S. sanctions against Russia if he does invade Ukraine. If he opts to do nothing to ease the pressure, then it’s Washington and Brussels, not Moscow, that may face a choice on the next steps in this crisis. — [Anthony Halpin]( Ukrainian Territorial Defense Forces during a military exercise near Kyiv on Dec. 25. Photographer: Sergei Supinsky/AFP/Getty Imagtes [Click here]( to subscribe to our weekly newsletter Next Africa. And share this newsletter with others too. They can sign up [here](. Global Headlines Long shot | U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer plans to try to break a logjam on two Democrat-drafted voting rights bills and begin debate on the Senate floor this week. Yet as [Laura Litvan]( outlines [here](, Republicans could still block a final vote on the measure. - The House is preparing to [move]( forward on a China competitiveness bill that would authorize billions of dollars in funding to bolster U.S. research and development and the domestic semiconductor industry. Economic damage | The costs of Beijing’s Covid Zero stance are [intensifying](. With omicron posing a much greater threat than previous variants, more city-wide lockdowns may emerge, wreaking havoc on industry, snarling supply chains and spooking consumers. According to Goldman Sachs, an extreme scenario where a national lockdown is decreed could cut annual growth to 1.5%, the lowest since 1976. - China detected omicron in a [second]( major port city, deepening concern that the more infectious variant could spread quickly across the world’s largest trading nation, upending global supply chains. China’s steady jobless rate is [masking]( pain in the labor market that leaders will find hard to ignore as they look to stimulate the economy. Jobs are an overriding consideration for government officials as the Communist Party [prepares]( for a twice-a-decade leadership meeting this year. Looking up | For all the talk of French culture wars boosting far-right challengers for his job, President Emmanuel Macron has an ace up his sleeve: a robust economy. As [William Horobin](, [Ania Nussbaum]( and [Caroline Alexander]( report, Macron can lean on a standout economic rebound going into April’s presidential election. Read more [here](. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [This Could Be the Beginning of the Pandemic’s End: Mark Gongloff]( - [The West Must Deny Russia a ‘Sphere of Influence’: Andreas Kluth]( - [Hong Kong’s Media Squeeze Looks Far From Over: Matthew Brooker]( Simmering rage | U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson bought some time by apologizing in Parliament for attending a party at his Downing Street office during the first pandemic lockdown. But [anger]( in his ruling Conservative Party means his grip on power is precarious. Visitors add a name to the National Covid Memorial Wall yesterday in London. Photographer: Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg Bye stimulus | Budgetary [belt-tightening]( by governments is under way at various speeds in different parts of the world, and what that means for global growth is one of the key questions for 2022. Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( weekdays from 12 to 1pm ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2pm ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here]( or check out prior episodes and guest clips [here](. News to Note - The U.K. and India have kicked off [negotiations]( on a free-trade deal, a potential post Brexit-prize for Britain as it seeks deeper economic ties outside the European Union. - U.S. President Joe Biden will announce today that his administration is [deploying]( military doctors and nurses to six hospitals in six states, including New York and New Jersey. - Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s government is weighing whether to use discretionary powers to cancel tennis superstar Novak Djokovic’s visa and deport him to Serbia. However, the political [damage]( from the saga comes just months ahead of national elections. - Angolan President Joao Lourenco [reassured]( voters that elections scheduled for August will be safe, amid growing political unrest in Africa’s second-biggest oil producer. - The United Arab Emirates is looking to double or triple its trade volume with Turkey, capitalizing on its logistical links with the rest of the world, in the latest sign of [warming]( ties between the erstwhile rivals. And finally ... A well-known Chinese economist has been banned from social media platform Weibo days after posting comments calling on the central bank to print $315 billion a year for [subsidies]( to encourage births. Ren Zeping, who left troubled property developer China Evergrande Group last year, has “violated relevant laws and regulations,” said a notice on Weibo. China’s birthrate plunged to a new low in 2020 and is unlikely to have improved despite relaxations in government restrictions. Ren Zeping. Photographer: Qian Xiaodun/ICHPL Imaginechina/AP Photo Like Balance of Power? [Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com](, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( [Ads Powered By Liveintent]( | [Ad Choices]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022