Facing voters’ wrath

It's a tough time for incumbents [View in browser]( [Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( British Prime Minister Boris Johnson confided to a senior minister about a year ago that he was tired and not enjoying himself. This was not what he had signed up for, he said. It wasn’t fun. Being a leader can bring a lot of upside. You are, after all, one of the most powerful people in your country and possibly far beyond. But you have to face whatever is thrown at you, including things somewhat out of your control. You’re on the hook with voters either way. Key reading - [Biden’s Big Bet on Family Care Risks Payoff Long After Elections]( - [French Firebrand Zemmour Announces He’s Running for President]( - [Omicron Risks New Inflation Headache for World’s Central Bankers]( - [Bolsonaro’s Foe in Covid Approach Will Run for Brazil Presidency]( - [Authoritarian Leaders Are Weaker Than They Look, Thanks to Covid]( The beauty of fighting an election as the opposition is you’re not running on your record. The peril of incumbency is that you are. And right now for many leaders the problems are piling up. The Covid-19 pandemic is dragging toward the two-year mark, plus there are energy shortages, supply chain snarls and broad inflation pressures not being matched by wages. Health systems are teetering, taxes at some point will need to start rising and people feel hemmed in by mask and vaccine rules. We’re headed for ballots in France, Brazil, Australia, the Philippines, South Korea and Hungary. Plus there are the U.S. mid-term elections, with President Joe Biden’s popularity dropping and chatter that Donald Trump might run again in 2024. Votes are also on the horizon in Turkey, Poland and Malaysia. For incumbents, the danger is they do the hard slog through crises and get no voter credit for simply keeping things afloat. Or the economic sunlight begins right as their replacement comes in and luxuriates in their predecessor’s labor. It doesn’t mean there’s major space for fringe candidates — voters may prefer established parties when the world is in such upheaval. But it does open the door for the main opposition groupings if they see the opportunity. [— Rosalind Mathieson]( Boris Johnson at the COP26 climate talks in Glasgow, U.K., on Nov. 10. Photographer: Robert Perry/EPA/Bloomberg [Click here]( to see our Bloomberg Politics website and share this newsletter with others too. They can sign up [here](. Global Headlines Abortion showdown | The most [consequential]( abortion case in a generation comes before the U.S. Supreme Court today, as the justices weigh Mississippi’s ban after 15 weeks of pregnancy and consider gutting the landmark Roe v. Wade ruling. [Greg Stohr]( explains why a decision upholding the state’s law would have a far-reaching impact. - Trump’s last chief of staff, Mark Meadows, has agreed to face closed-door questioning by a House committee investigating the Jan. 6 [mob]( attack at the Capitol. Drawing together | Find out [here]( why Biden’s Asia czar believes the U.S. security partnership with the U.K. and Australia known as Aukus is a “defining effort” against China’s actions in the region. - Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Beijing should be aware that any [crisis]( with Taiwan would pull in Japan and the U.S., warning today of “economic suicide” if Beijing takes military action against Taipei. The emergence of the highly mutated omicron form of the virus has provided some [vindication]( for China’s Covid Zero approach. While other countries pivot to living alongside the virus, China has prioritized weeding out every last infection, saying the health of the population is its main priority and economic benefits will follow. Diplomatic exchange | Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet for [talks]( tomorrow in Stockholm, the first direct contact in weeks between officials of the two countries amid rising tensions over western fears the Kremlin may be planning to invade Ukraine. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [Powell’s ‘Transitory’ U-Turn Is Just the Start: Mohamed El-Erian]( - [Ireland’s the Wrong Privacy Watchdog for the EU: Parmy Olson]( - [Disney’s China Program Is No Laughing Matter: Matthew Brooker]( Muscling in | The European Union will today seek to mobilize $340 billion in public and private infrastructure investments by 2027 to offer developing nations an alternative to China’s massive Belt and Road development program that critics say has pushed countries to unsustainable levels of indebtedness. Click [here]( for more. Grim forecast | The Taliban’s move to restrict women from working could [cost]( Afghanistan's economy up to $1 billion, or 5% of GDP, the United Nations Development Programme said in a report today as the militant group seeks global help to avert a deepening crisis. The study paints a grim picture of an economy under huge strain with soaring inflation and an ongoing cash crunch. Bloomberg TV and Radio air Balance of Power with [David Westin]( weekdays from 12 to 1pm ET, with a second hour on Bloomberg Radio from 1 to 2pm ET. You can watch and listen on Bloomberg channels and online [here]( or check out prior episodes and guest clips [here](. News to Note - China is planning to [ban]( companies from going public on foreign stock markets through variable interest entities, sources say, closing a loophole long used by the technology industry to raise capital from overseas investors. - The Facebook whistle-blower Frances Haugen will renew her call today before a U.S. House subcommittee for regulation of a social-media business model that she says puts [profits]( over the health of its users and democracies. - Turkey’s interest rates will continue to fall, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said yesterday, as he called for an economy that [thrives]( on local production and exports instead of depending on short-term foreign cash. - Ethiopia says its forces have [recaptured]( a swathe of territory in the north of the country and gained the upper hand in a year-long civil war against fighters loyal to the dissident Tigray province. - Xiomara Castro was elected president of Honduras in a [landslide](, pledging to tax the rich, change the nation’s “failed neoliberal model” and possibly end its alliance with Taiwan. And finally ... Hong Kong students as young as six will be taught to love their motherland as the city [overhauls]( its education system to create a generation of Chinese patriots. As [Jenni Marsh]( reports, under the new rules issued yesterday, pupils should “correctly understand” Chinese history, learn about the mainland’s constitution, culture and values, and respect its national symbols, including the flag. A student holds the Chinese national flag during a ceremony at Fukien Secondary School marking National Day in Hong Kong on Oct. 1. Photographer: Chan Long Hei/Bloomberg Like Balance of Power? [Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com](, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. 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