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Deutsche Bank taps shareholders for $8.6 billion, oil bulls are getting harder to find, and the U.S. protects its position at the G-20
Capital raise
Deutsche Bank AG will issue [687.5 million new shares]( at 11.65 euros ($12.54) apiece â a 35 percent discount to Friday's closing price â to raise 8 billion euros of fresh capital. In its annual report published today the bank said it expected revenue to remain broadly unchanged this year, while revealing that the bonus pool was [slashed to 500 million euros]( in 2016. Shares in Deutsche were 1.8 percent lower at 5:16 a.m. Eastern Time.Â
G-20 win
The meeting of the Group of 20 in Baden-Baden, Germany at the weekend featured an [apparent win]( for the U.S. after the communique produced by the talks [omitted warnings]( about protectionism. One thing that was repeated was the pledge to overhaul bank-capital rules, with the statement urging the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to finalize the [Basel III reforms](. Away from the G-20, German Chancellor Angela Merkel joined Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in calling for a [concerted effort]( to defend free trade.Â
Oil decline
Bullish bets on West Texas Intermediate crude prices fell by a [record amount]( in the week ending March 14, with wagers on further price falls doubling. Energy lender Arab Petroleum Investment Corp. sees oil prices [remaining below $60 a barrel]( for the rest of the year. WTI for April delivery was trading at [$48.07 a barrel]( at 5:35 a.m., with data released Friday showing U.S. drillers continue to add rigs, extending a drilling surge to a 10th month.
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Markets slip
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Ex-Japan Index [gained 0.4 percent](, with markets in Japan closed for a holiday. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was [0.2 percent lower]( at 5:40 a.m. with Deutsche Bank among the largest losers. Market futures in the U.S. point to a [drop at the open](.
Comey testimony
FBI Director James Comey testifies before Congress today. While he is due to speak about the continuing investigation into Russia's alleged meddling in last year's [election](, President Donald Trump's Twitter claims about wiretapping are likely to [dominate proceedings](Â in the rare open session. That's due to begin at 10 a.m. in Washington.
Here's what you should read today
Odd Lots Podcast:Â How a fund manager teaches his kids about [money and banking](.
World's biggest hedge funds [join pivot]( to local emerging bonds.
Paris climate accord could make the world [$19 trillion]( richer.
Money [doesn't buy happiness](Â (in America)...
...While Italy shows a healthy life doesn't need a [healthy economy](.
Porsche pockets [$17,250 profit]( on every car.
Yellen caught [gold speculators](Â by surprise.
And finally, hereâs what Joeâs interested in this morning
It turns out that it's all the media's fault! Well, sort of. See, ever since the election there have been a ton of stories trying to explain why volatility is so muted despite all the "uncertainty" out there in the political realm. None of the stories are all that compelling though. On Friday, my Bloomberg colleague Cameron Crise (whose work you can find on the Terminal's Markets Live blog) dove further into this seeming gap between uncertainty and volatility and come to a very interesting conclusion. It turns out that [attempts to measure uncertainty]( include both a news component (e.g. keywords in articles) and a real-world component (e.g. expiring fiscal-policy measures). It turns out when you separate out the two components, there's a very striking divergence underway. The news bit reflects the volume of stories screaming about all the uncertainty out there. But the real-world measures are quite tame. You can see on the attached chart the big gap that's emerged between those, and what the media is hyping up. It turns out that this is often the case. The media is very excitable, and the blue line tends to gyrate wildly while the white line (reality) doesn't swing to such extremes. This suggests that in trying to reconcile low volatility and high uncertainty, part of the answer is in just turning off the news (please don't do that though!) and in paying attention to real-world signals. You can catch Crise talking more about this, alongside Bloomberg's Dani Burger, [if you go to the 38-minute mark of Friday's What'd You Miss](.
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