5 things to start your day

[Bloomberg Markets]( [Forward Guidance]( [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]([Twitter Share]( [SEND TO A FRIEND [Share with a friend]]( Budget day in the U.K., China reports a surprise trade deficit in February, and Mnuchin is having trouble getting his Treasury picks approved by the White House. Budget day At 7:30 a.m. Eastern Time, Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond will present his [2017 budget]( in a speech to the U.K. parliament in which he is expected to say the country is well placed to the weather the challenges of Brexit. He is expected to give a [boost to British bondholders](, with analysts forecasting gilt issuance for the next fiscal year at its lowest since the financial crisis. In the House of Lords yesterday, Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit bill [was defeated]( when rebels from her own party voted to rewrite the draft law. The defeat will only serve as a delay to the bill, as the changes in the upper house can be overturned by a vote in the House of Commons which will probably come next week. China trade China reported its [first trade deficit in three years]( in February as imports soared 38.1 percent while exports dropped 1.3 percent. Economists had been expecting a 14 percent rise in exports according to a Bloomberg survey. The results were skewed by the timing of Lunar New Year, which fell in February this year but took place in January back in 2016. Authorities in Beijing seem more concerned with events in North Korea at the moment, as they call on the hermit kingdom and the U.S. to [de-escalate the sabre rattling]( in the region. Mnuchin's vacancy problem Steven Mnuchin is having trouble getting his picks for [top positions at the U.S. Treasury]( approved by the White House as aides to the president resist some of his choices, according to people familiar with the matter. President Trump may face questions over a brief meeting with the [Russian ambassador last April]( despite claims by his spokeswoman that he had "zero" involvement with the country's officials during the campaign. Markets mixed Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained [less than 0.1 percent](, while Japan's Topix index slipped 0.3 percent with drugmakers leading the losses following Trump's [tweets yesterday](. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was [0.1 percent higher]( at 5:40 a.m. with investors seeming to remain cautious ahead of tomorrow's ECB decision. U.S. stock futures [were flat](. Oil peace? The battle between OPEC and U.S. shale for [oil-market supremacy]( may ease following a rare off-the-record chat about the future of oil at a dinner in downtown Houston. The other main non-OPEC producer, Russia, is still presenting a [united front]( with Saudi Arabia on production cuts agreed last year. None of the global detente is helping prices of the commodity, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate [slipping below $53](. Here's what you should read today How to calculate the [true value]( of the dollar. Why [falling unemployment]( may spell bad news for investment. How the euro could [break up]( - or be saved. The [old order is fading]( in France. As Trump makes threats, Iran [makes friends](. Wikileaks adds to [Samsung headaches]( with claims of spying TVs. One reason investors are [bullish]( on global stocks. And finally, here’s what Joe’s interested in this morning We're exactly one week away from the Dutch elections, and although they haven't been getting a ton of attention from traders, they do mark the beginning of a heavy European political calendar that could help define 2017. According to the latest polls, the populist candidate Geert Wilders has been slipping -- [perhaps as a result of comparisons with Donald Trump](. In light of all the upcoming elections in the euro area, [you should check out this Bloomberg graphic]( on various ways the currency union could break up or be saved. It's fairly easy to imagine all the bad scenarios for the euro project (Le Pen wins, Five Star wins in Italy, Greece goes bust etc.) but the good scenarios get much less play. One possible path worth watching for is one where the center-left Martin Schulz [wins in the German elections]( and starts to move the ball forward on a fiscal union, while changing some of Germany's policies to stoke more demand and boost the fortunes of the country's neighbors. An important concept to keep in mind is that it's always easy to fantasize about downside scenarios. Coming up with surprise upside scenarios is often much harder and more rewarding. You received this message because you are subscribed to the Bloomberg Markets newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022