Climate curve ball

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( Political fortunes can turn on the smallest of words or gestures. Scenes of German election front-runner Armin Laschet [laughing]( on Saturday as the president stood nearby expressing his sorrow for the victims of flooding could be one such moment. Last week’s floods continue to dominate media coverage in Germany, with the death toll approaching 200, towns in ruins and transport disrupted in the worst-hit states of North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate. The specter of more climate change-driven weather disasters is now resounding for German voters. Chancellor Angela Merkel didn't enter the debate over the images of Laschet, the North Rhine-Westphalia state leader and her Christian Democratic Union’s lead candidate for September’s election. She instead visited affected areas of the Rhineland yesterday with Social Democratic Party state premier Malu Dreyer. The devastation was surreal, said the chancellor, adding that more urgent action was needed to address climate change. Images of her grasping the hand of Dreyer prompted the hashtag #Merkel to trend on Twitter, along with comments [praising]( her leadership. Laschet, who quickly apologized for joking with aides as the president spoke, can only hope the contrast with Merkel doesn’t erode the CDU-led bloc’s [poll lead]( over the Greens of Annalena Baerbock, whose own missteps have weighed on her party’s popularity. After all, there is a precedent: SPD Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder turned the course of the 2002 election when he rushed to the scene of flooding on the River Elbe while his conservative challenger, Edmund Stoiber, dithered. Schroeder snatched victory from defeat and reconstituted his coalition with the Greens. Elections can be relatively staid affairs in Germany. The sense here is that this one has a long way to run yet. — [Alan Crawford]( A man rests amid debris during a clean-up in Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler, Germany on Saturday. Photographer: Liesa Johannssen-Koppitz/Bloomberg Click [here]( to follow Bloomberg Politics on Twitter and tell us how we’re doing or what we’re missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net. Global Headlines ‘Freedom Day’ | Boris Johnson’s plan to get the U.K. back to normal is at risk of being [derailed]( amid a public outcry over his attempt to dodge pandemic isolation rules and as Covid-19 cases soar the most in the world. The lifting of virus restrictions in England today had been designed to herald the full reopening of an economy battered by its deepest recession in 300 years. - London is open again. [Here’s what]( you’ll find if you head in. - Read [Martin Ivens](’s take for Bloomberg Opinion on the U.K. [reopening](. Science competition | Congress is aiming to [hobble]( China’s ability to recruit scientists and academics in the U.S. as part of moves to confront its growing clout. A bill passed in the House to bolster research and development would bar scientists and academics from participating in U.S.-funded research projects if they’re also getting support from Beijing, another sign of the strained relationship between the world’s biggest economies. Donations spree | China’s tech tycoons are discovering their [charitable]( side as they come under mounting regulatory scrutiny from Beijing, giving away part of their fortunes to charitable causes. It comes as the Chinese public is increasingly concerned about inequality, while President Xi Jinping said in a speech last year the country’s development was “unbalanced” and “common prosperity” should be the ultimate goal. Supporters of former U.S. President Donald Trump who didn’t respond to pollsters were a likely cause of wildly wrong pre-election forecasts in 2020 as political surveys suffered their [worst]( performance in 40 years, according to a report from a task force of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. It said national polls overstated President Joe Biden’s lead over Trump by 3.9 percentage points. Best of Bloomberg Opinion - [What Can Biden Do About Russian Hackers? Not Much]( - [Attacks on Critical Race Theory Reopen Old Wounds]( - [Haiti Can Rebuild Its Economy. Here's How.]( Crude compromise | OPEC and its allies [struck]( a deal to inject more oil into the recovering global economy, overcoming an internal split that threatened the cartel’s control of the crude market. An unusually public dispute was resolved in a classic compromise, with Saudi Arabia meeting the United Arab Emirates halfway in its demand for a more generous output limit. Green bet | When Royal Dutch Shell announced it would slash capacity by half at its biggest oil refinery, a mainstay of the Singapore economy for six decades, it marked a turning point in one of the most [successful]( bets on fossil fuels in history. The city-state’s government has now set out a path for it to become a leading regional hub for carbon trading, green finance and consulting. What to Watch This Week - U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is trying to [force]( action this week on a bipartisan $579 billion infrastructure plan and a separate $3.5 trillion tax and spending proposal, with the first vote as early as Wednesday. - Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi will discuss the [withdrawal]( of American combat troops with U.S. officials, as well as plans for the remaining soldiers to train his forces. - The father-son team that smuggled Carlos Ghosn out of Japan in a large musical-equipment case were [sentenced]( to a combined three years and eight months in jail today for helping Nissan Motor’s former chairman flee trial in 2019. - A drive by Texas lawmakers to [restrict]( transgender participation in sports is the latest signal of pushback in Republican-led states as Biden champions expanded LGBTQ rights. - Indonesian President Joko Widodo’s approval rating fell as the coronavirus continues to [tear]( through the nation, with the daily Covid-19 death count the worst in the world. - Former South African President Jacob Zuma has a court [hearing]( today related to his plea for the prosecutor to be removed from his arms-deal graft case. Thanks to the 75 people who responded to our pop quiz Friday and congratulations to Elaine Milbank who was the first to name Turkey as the country that received a warning of serious consequences from the Taliban over its decision to take over the security of Kabul’s airport after the full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. And finally ... One-time student protest leader Gabriel Boric and former government minister Sebastian Sichel won [upset]( victories in Chile’s presidential primary elections. In the latest blow to Chile’s traditional parties amid lingering social discontent, Boric beat a Communist Party candidate who spooked financial markets with calls for radical economic reform and Sichel defeated one of Chile’s best-known politicians to advance to the first round of presidential elections on Nov. 21. Gabriel Boric, center, following the primary presidential elections on Sunday. Photographer: Cristobal Olivares/Bloomberg  Like Balance of Power? [Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com](, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022