Oil brinkmanship

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( It wouldn’t be an oil meeting without brinkmanship, but the [stakes]( are high for the world economy as OPEC+ ministers resume talks today on an output agreement. Until a last-minute objection by the United Arab Emirates, the oil cartel and its allies thought they had a [deal]( to boost monthly supplies by 400,000 barrels a day between August and December to [ease]( crude prices amid a revival in global demand. As [Salma El Wardany](, [Grant Smith](, [Dina Khrennikova]( and [Javier Blas]( report, that sparked bitter infighting and raised the specter of last year’s output war between Saudi Arabia and Russia, which combined with slumping demand during Covid-19 lockdowns to briefly turn crude prices [negative](. Failure to reach agreement would mean OPEC+ continues with existing output terms until April, adding to pressures that have already pushed prices up around 50% this year. That risks stoking inflationary concerns in the global economy and may trigger a backlash toward the cartel from the U.S. and other major oil consumers fearful of the impact on the recovery. There are other unpredictable factors. A deal to [revive]( the Iranian nuclear pact may bring new oil supplies into the market if the U.S. lifts sanctions. The spread of the delta variant of Covid-19 is sending some nations back into lockdowns that may dampen demand. As diplomatic channels buzz between the key players, the 23-nation alliance is facing a test with ramifications far beyond its members. It may take high-level political intervention to break the deadlock. — [Anthony Halpin]( Oil well pump jacks operated by Chevron in California, U.S. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg Click [here]( for this week’s most compelling political images and tell us how we’re doing or what we’re missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net. Global Headlines Warm welcome | Prime Minister Boris Johnson is piling on the [charm]( for Angela Merkel on her final U.K. visit as chancellor, reaching out to Germany after five years of tension over Brexit. The reception contrasts with Britain’s fractious divorce from the European Union and strains with the bloc over the supply of Covid-19 vaccines. - The opposition Labour Party [dented]( Johnson’s electoral surge in northern England, unexpectedly holding a key parliamentary seat in a special election with a victory that’s likely to provide some respite for leader Keir Starmer. Anniversary violence | Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam denounced the [stabbing]( of a policeman in a bustling shopping street as tensions simmer in the Asian financial hub despite bans on major protests. The incident marred an otherwise muted holiday, after 10,000 police were deployed to prevent pro-democracy activists protesting on the 24th anniversary of the former British colony’s return to Chinese rule. Biggest challenge | When former Trump Organization executive Barbara Res saw the company’s longtime finance boss had turned himself in to face state tax [charges](, her mind turned to Donald Trump. “This is it,” Res said. “I think that it’s going to destroy the Trump empire.” For executives who’ve watched Trump through his momentous rise, operatic falls and many improbable [comebacks](, the charges mean something may have finally changed. Summer in the Northern Hemisphere is just days old, but the [extremes]( keep piling up. The conditions driving these events — heat, ocean warming, changes in longstanding weather patterns — aren’t going away anytime soon, meaning the worst may be yet to come. Afghans flee | The Biden administration has asked three Central Asian nations to temporarily take in some 9,000 [Afghans]( who worked with U.S. forces as they seek to flee the Taliban before NATO forces withdraw, [Peter Martin](, [Nick Wadhams]( and [Jennifer Jacobs]( write. According to the Associated Press, the U.S. has now handed over control of Bagram Airfield — the heart of its push to expel the Taliban — to Afghanistan’s military, indicating its last troops are leaving before the Sept. 11 deadline. Closing the door | Australia will cut international arrivals by [50%]( as it races to stem a rise in the delta variant of Covid-19 that forced half the population into lockdown this week. The government is searching for a road map out of the pandemic amid a sluggish vaccination rate — the second-slowest among OECD nations — that has made it particularly vulnerable. What to Watch - Leading fashion brands are facing a French probe over allegations they profited from [exploiting]( forced labor in the Uyghur community in China to manufacture their products, a claim Beijing denies. - Some Japanese municipalities have [stopped]( taking vaccination reservations due to tight supplies, possibly slowing nationwide inoculations just weeks before the Tokyo Olympics. - The U.S. and its allies scored a major [win]( in the push for a more balanced global corporate tax system but still face obstacles to completing an ambitious plan years in the making. Pop quiz, readers (no cheating!). Which former president was sentenced this week to 15 months in jail for defying a court order to testify at a graft inquiry? Send your answers to balancepower@bloomberg.net. And finally ... A spy thriller joined a film about a magical yeti to invoke the [wrath]( of Vietnam in the crossfire of Asian geopolitics. Netflix stopped streaming the series “Pine Gap” after the government said it violated Vietnam’s sovereignty by showing a map indicating South China Sea islands aren’t Vietnamese. The Asian nation also ordered theaters to pull the movie “Abominable” in 2019 over depictions of China’s version of its maritime boundaries. A poster for “Everest Nguoi Tuyet Be Nho,” also known as “Abominable,” in Hanoi. Photographer: Nhac Nguyen/AFP/Getty Images   Like Balance of Power? [Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com](, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters. You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022