Pandemic undoes populists

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us [Get the newsletter]( Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban hosts his Polish and Italian allies today to explore the foundation of a new populist party in Europe. In truth, their timing could be better. With Covid-19 [ravaging]( all three countries, it’s not the best advertisement for their brand of right-wing identity politics as an antidote to the coronavirus. Poland is struggling with its worst virus wave yet, while Hungary has the [highest]( death rate in the world right now. Grievances are sure to be aired at the European Union over its vaccine strategy, but there are signs that populists worldwide are on the backfoot. U.S. virus fatalities arguably cost Donald Trump the election. And in Brazil, the “Trump of the tropics,” Jair Bolsonaro, is witnessing a cabinet [revolt]( as soaring deaths fuel concerns that voters are no longer willing to put up with the president’s apparent indifference. The Philippines is behind its Southeast Asia neighbors in inoculations and President Rodrigo Duterte was [forced]( to lock down the capital this week as infections hit a record. The pandemic is shaking up politics the world over. Not all populists are buckling under the strain. Some, such as India’s Narendra Modi, seem able to shake off any public backlash. But as events in Brazil suggest, there is a tipping point where voters will take no more. And that can lead to unpredictable outcomes. As the virus mutates and new strains run rampant, the politics of Covid-19 may have a long way to evolve yet. — [Alan Crawford]( A right-wing protester outside the Reichstag during rallies against coronavirus-related restrictions on Aug. 29 in Berlin. Photographer: Omer Messinger/Getty Images Europe Dear readers: the newsletter is taking a day off tomorrow for Good Friday and will resume publication with our Weekend Reads edition on Saturday. Tell us how we’re doing or what we’re missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net. Global Headlines Tough slog | Now that President Joe Biden has laid out his $2.25 trillion program to rebuild America’s infrastructure, he faces a complicated [battle]( ahead: selling it to Congress. Republicans and some business lobby groups oppose the corporate tax hikes he proposes to pay for it while progressive Democrats said the plan would not spend nearly enough. - Biden’s new program means the U.S. is going to need more commodities at a time when China has been on a [buying]( spree. Chip battle | Republicans in Congress say they’re [open]( to Democrats’ proposals to counter China’s clout in technology and address a global shortage of semiconductors but are wary of the cost. As [Jenny Leonard]( and [Daniel Flatley]( report, there’s also concern among some GOP lawmakers that any bill will be a Democratic domestic wish list disguised as a mechanism to compete with China. - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. [plans]( to spend $100 billion over the next three years to expand its chip fabrication capacity. Fresh setbacks | French President Emmanuel Macron [announced]( a nationwide four-week lockdown last night, closing schools and business, in the latest sign Europe is again losing control of the pandemic. Italy also extended its partial shutdown, with Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government saying current restrictions in high-risk areas will remain in place until April 30. Don’t push it | One of Hong Kong’s most senior police officials has [warned]( residents not to cross any red lines when it comes to the national security law imposed by Beijing. “Do not tempt the law — it’s simple,” Oscar Kwok, the police deputy commissioner for management, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. - Hong Kong’s “father of democracy” Martin Lee and media mogul Jimmy Lai were among a group of opposition activists [found guilty]( by a court today for attending an unauthorized protest in 2019. Lee leaves the West Kowloon Magistrates Courts today. Photographer: Chan Long Hei/Bloomberg Choices, choices | Paraguay's search for Covid-19 vaccines has landed it in the middle of the growing [tensions]( between the U.S. and China. As [Ken Parks]( writes, officials say they’ve been approached to switch Paraguay’s alliance from Taiwan to Beijing to get Chinese doses, while U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken phoned President Mario Abdo Benitez to stiffen his spine against such a change. What to Watch - The U.S. is undertaking “strategic planning” with Australia to consider potential joint responses to a [war]( over Taiwan, according to Biden’s top diplomat in Canberra. - Myanmar’s parliament, ousted by the military Feb. 1, plans to [set up]( a national unity government in the first week of April, according to a statement by a parallel administration of key allies of detained civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi. - Jailed Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny has started a [hunger]( strike to pressure prison authorities to provide him with medical care for back and leg pains. Correction: We got the day wrong for the Salvini-Orban-Morawiecki meeting in yesterday’s newsletter. Apologies for the error. And finally ... A crucial international climate-change summit scheduled for November in the U.K. may have to be [postponed]( or radically redesigned because of the pandemic, [Tim Ross]( and [Alex Morales]( report. Officials are discussing options for reducing in-person attendance at the United Nations COP26 summit and even delaying the event for a second time after it was put back last year. That would be a blow to Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s leadership ambitions on climate issues and to campaigners’ hopes for a deal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Icebergs and ice float in the Ilulissat Icefjord in 2019 near Ilulissat, Greenland. Photographer: Sean Gallup/Getty Images Europe   Like Balance of Power? [Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com](, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters.  You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. 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