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The Trump trade reverses as bonds gain and dollar slips post press-conference. UniCredit looks to raise close to its current market value in a cash call, and Volkswagen pleads guilty in emissions case.
Trump trade
The dollar [slumped against major peers] and the yield on 10-year Treasuries touched its lowest level since November, in the wake of President-elect Donald Trump's [first press conference] since his election. While the PEOTUS's comments during the media gathering sent [biotech shares tumbling], U.S. stock indexes finished the day higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing within 1 percent of 20,000 for the 18th session in 20. The director of the federal Office of Government Ethics said that Trump's plan to step down from a leadership role [while retaining ownership] of his multi-billion-dollar businesses is "meaningless from a conflicts-of-interest perspective.â
UniCredit cash call
Italy's largest bank is [seeking investor backing] for a 13 billion-euro ($14 billion) rights offer, at a shareholder meeting in Rome today. The cash call, which is close to UniCredit SpA's current market value, is for the purposes of carrying out a turnaround plan which was presented by Chief Executive Officer Jean Pierre Mustier [in December]. Analysts are not expecting a re-run of last month's failure by Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA's to raise funds. For the wider Italian economy, tomorrow's decision on the country's rating by DBRS could prove important, for if the agency downgrades the rating it would increase the haircuts on Italian sovereign debt at the European Central Bank.
Volkswagen says fair cop
Volkswagen AG agreed yesterday to [plead guilty]Â in the U.S. to an emissions-cheating scandal and pay $4.3 billion in penalties. The scandal, which at one stage [threatened the viability] of one of the world's largest carmakers, can be put behind the company now, even if the reputational damage may take longer to heal. Shares in the automaker are over 13 percent higher so far in 2017.
Markets slip
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index [gained 1.1 percent], while Japan's Topix index closed 1 percent lower, as drugmakers there were dragged lower by Trump's press-conference comments. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was [0.3 percent lower] at 5:27 a.m. ET, as shares headed towards the lowest level of the year, with pharmaceutical companies again leading the declines.  S&P 500 futures [slipped 0.3 percent].
Central Bank talk
Later today the European Central Bank will publish an account of its December meeting. Analysts will scrutinize it for signs of divisions on the governing council, following the decision to extend quantitative easing that was taken at that gathering. There is plenty for Fed-watchers today too, with Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker speaking at 8:30 a.m. ET, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart at 11:30 a.m., St. Louis Fed President James Bullard at 1:15 a.m and Fed Chair Janet Yellen at 7:00 p.m.
Here's what you should read today
Why 'teflon-like' [global markets] are resisting the bears.
Scandal at world's third-biggest pension fund [unlocks $20 billion].
China [can't have access] to the South China Sea isles it built, says Tillerson.
Obamacare repeal effort clears [first big hurdle] in the U.S. Senate.
Seven Brexit strategies Theresa May could use to [erode EU unity].
The most expensive (and cheapest) [places for vices].
The Russian art of '[kompromat.]'
And finally, hereâs what Joeâs interested in this morning
So the meme of the day is "reversal." Popular Trump trades are coming under pressure. The 10-year yield is at its lowest since the end of November. The Bloomberg Dollar Index is at its lowest since December 13. Gold is at its highest since November 22. There's a fair amount of chatter about yesterday's Trump press conference having been a market catalyst. âMarkets are disappointed by a lack of detail around the much touted stimulus plans,â [said a strategist at CMC Markets PLC]. Here's the thing: There's never been much detail. Not about the stimulus plan, not about the Obamacare replacement, nor about anything else. Ever since markets started surging early in the morning on November 9, people have come up with this story about how everyone's excited about stimulus, a regulatory rollback, and animal spirits. Meanwhile, Trump the person (as opposed to Trump the figure of investor imaginations) has mostly been focused on trade, and slamming companies that want to manufacture outside of the U.S. You never know what's causing markets to move, but it's hard to deny that a gap has emerged between the stories investors have been telling, and what's actually being said in the real world.
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