Another Putin predicament

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us //link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/21306674.65502/aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9icG9saXRpY3M/582c8673566a94262a8b49bdB44806b54 [Get the newsletter]( Angela Merkel is angry. Her already souring relationship with President Vladimir Putin took another hit after doctors in Germany treating Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny — who collapsed on a domestic flight in Russia and remains in a coma – say he was [most likely poisoned](. The German chancellor issued a terse statement after that revelation, calling on Moscow to “fully investigate this act as a matter of urgency.” While she’s kept lines of communication with Putin open, Germany has previously accused Russia of involvement in [the assassination]( of a political opponent in Berlin and carrying out a cyberattack on the lower house of parliament. The question is what if anything comes from the Navalny episode. One issue is whether it sparks protests inside Russia, where there have been sizable anti-government [demonstrations]( this year. At this early stage widespread unrest seems unlikely, though. And take the 2018 poisoning of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal in the U.K., allegedly by Kremlin agents. That led to expulsions of Russian diplomats by several countries, but little in the way of hard penalties. Sanctions over Putin’s invasion of Crimea didn’t make him reverse course. He continues to meddle in Syria and Libya. And he knows Merkel needs a big new Russia-Germany gas pipeline, so she’s [unlikely to touch]( that project. The European Union meanwhile has mostly wagged its finger at Belarus’s Alexander Lukashenko for a [post-election crackdown](. Given the murky nature for now of what happened to Navalny, it’s hard to imagine it swinging into action here either. — [Rosalind Mathieson]( Navalny with demonstrators during a rally in Moscow in 2019. Photographer: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg Tell us how we’re doing or what we’re missing at balancepower@bloomberg.net. Global Headlines [A house divided]( | A loss for Donald Trump on Nov. 3 would expose deep rifts in the Republican Party, forcing a battle over whether the U.S. president’s brand of divisive, populist politics will last. Win or lose, few in Republican politics think the party can ever return to the roots Ronald Reagan planted 40 years ago that embraced small government and an interventionist foreign policy. Campaign 2020 There are 70 days until the election. Here’s the latest on the [race for control]( of the White House and Congress. First lady Melania Trump and Secretary of State Michael Pompeo [will be among]( the high-profile speakers on the second day of the Republican National Convention. [Click here]( for our viewers’ guide. Other developments: - [Trump’s Convention Invokes Fear of Biden in Appeal to GOP Base]( - [New Swing State Georgia Could Decide Control of the Senate]( - [Postmaster DeJoy Says Trump Attacks on Mail ‘Not Helpful’]( Sign up to receive daily election updates as a direct mobile notification on Twitter. Simply [click on this link]( and like the tweet. [Inching forward]( | U.S. and Chinese negotiators reviewed their phase-one trade deal, with the U.S. saying they discussed steps China [has taken]( to ensure greater protection for intellectual property rights and remove impediments to American companies in financial services and agriculture. Trade is a rare area of cooperation as ties sour on everything from tech security to Hong Kong, but Beijing is behind on its promises to buy more agricultural, energy and manufactured goods. - China Mengniu Dairy [scrapped plans]( to buy Kirin Holdings’s Australian beverage unit after being told the deal would likely be blocked amid strained relations between Canberra and Beijing. [Quashing dissent]( | Facebook is preparing a legal challenge to the Thai government’s decision to block access to a private group on the social media site that’s critical of the monarchy. The group — with more than 1 million members — discusses the king, which is risky under strict laws governing public mentions of the royal family. The government’s actions are part of a wider crackdown on the movement sweeping the nation that’s seen the arrest of protest leaders and demonstrators. [Sudan opening]( | Pompeo is the highest-ranking U.S. official to visit Sudan in more than a decade, a sign of burgeoning ties with an African country that was internationally isolated before strongman Omar al-Bashir’s ouster last year. The secretary of state will meet with leaders of the transitional government today to discuss potentially removing Sudan from the U.S. list of states sponsoring terrorism, and building ties with Israel. [Civilian slaughter]( | Six massacres in nine days have revived memories of one of the darkest periods in Colombia’s modern history, when illegal paramilitary groups would slaughter civilians en masse to spread terror through the late 1990s. The wave of violence has put pressure on the government as the 2016 peace process with Marxist guerrillas unravels. President Ivan Duque blamed cocaine-trafficking cartels for the violence, pointing to the increase in illegal drug output in recent years. A vigil for the victims of massacres in Colombia on Aug. 21. Photographer: Gabriel Aponte/Getty Images What to Watch - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is [in Rome]( today, where he'll discuss issues including the coronavirus pandemic with his Italian counterpart. - German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas visits both Athens and Ankara as tensions rise over energy exploration in [disputed areas]( of the Eastern Mediterranean. - Federal agencies are bolstering arsenals of tear gas, sponge-tipped bullets and other crowd-control gear after Trump ordered U.S. agents to assume new policing powers in cities [to quell protests]( he said threaten government monuments, statues and property. [And finally]( ... A poacher whose gang killed as many as 500 elephants was jailed in the Republic of Congo’s first criminal conviction of a wildlife trafficker. The man was sentenced to 30 years for the attempted murder of park rangers and smuggling the animals’ tusks from the Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park since 2008. The ruling marks a change in approach in the Republic of Congo, where environmental crimes were previously tried in civil courts. An elephant in Nouabale-Ndoki National Park in the Republic of Congo in 2012. Photographer: Laudes Martial Mbon/AFP/GettyImages   Like Balance of Power? | [Get unlimited access to Bloomberg.com](, where you'll find trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters.  You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Balance of Power newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022