5 things to start your day

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us //link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/21191578.237798/aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9idXNpbmVzcw/582c8673566a94262a8b49bdBb6a4c556 [Get the newsletter]( Initial jobless claims expected to drop further, Pelosi rebuffs Mnuchin, and IEA cuts oil-demand forecast. Another million Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect another drop in weekly initial jobless claims when the data is released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The median forecast is for 1.1 million new filings for benefits, with continuing claims dropping below 16 million. Last week's unemployment numbers came in [better than expected](, and there are signs [hiring is picking up](. But policy makers at the Federal Reserve have been warning that unless more measures are taken to [combat the spread of the virus]( and provide fiscal support, the recovery could be undermined. Not talking The chances of a big fiscal stimulus package seem more distant than ever today, after House Speaker Nancy Pelosi [rebuffed an "overture" from]( Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to restart talks because the White House hadn't budged on demands for a smaller package. Mnuchin said it was Pelosi who was [refusing to compromise](. At least Chief White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow isn't too worried about the impasse, saying the economy is "doing great right now" and won't come to harm if the two sides can't agree. That also seems to be the view of markets, with the S&P 500 Index briefly trading [above its record closing level]( during yesterday's session. Sponsored Content by [Global X ETFs]( Exploring the Long-Term Potential of Telemedicine Telemedicine offers the potential of greater convenience and accessibility for patients, while lowering provider costs. With recent events proving an accelerant, [explore why we believe]( this is the start of a structural shift in the global health care industry – and worthy of investors' attention.  Crude revision The International Energy Agency [cut its estimates for global oil demand]( for almost every quarter through the end of 2021, with the second half of this year getting the steepest downgrade. The agency blamed the drop on the worsening outlook for air travel as the pandemic continues to keep people at home. If the trend persists OPEC's "[shaky six](" may not get their hoped-for recovery in prices. In the market today, [crude held on to recent gains](, with a barrel West Texas Intermediate for September delivery trading unchanged at around $42.60. Markets mixed Investors are taking stock after yesterday's U.S. close within 0.2% of an all-time high. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.5%, with Japan's Topix index [closing 1.2% higher](. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index slipped 0.3% by 5:50 a.m. with banks, energy and travel stocks among the biggest losers. S&P 500 futures [pointed to a slightly lower open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 0.664% and [gold was higher](. Coming up... The July import price index is published at the same time as jobless claims. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Fed Governor Lael Brainard both speak later. Nancy Pelosi is scheduled to hold a press conference at 10:45 a.m. The Treasury will sell $36 billion of 30-year bonds at 1:00 p.m. Applied Materials Inc. and Baidu Inc. are among the companies reporting today. What we've been reading This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours. - China investors pick winners from Xi's [new economic mantra](. - Manhattan apartment [rents plunge 10%]( in pandemic-fueled exodus. - Wirecard's Jan Marsalek added to Interpol's [most wanted list](. - Fighting [anti-vaccine pseudoscience](, one viral video at a time. - Six things [you're doing wrong]( when buying stocks on your own. - The disparate financial impact of the [American justice system](. - The furious hunt for the [MAGA bomber](. And finally, here’s what Justina's interested in this morning If there’s one refrain for markets this year, it’s the “stock market is not the economy.” With the S&P 500 briefly popping above its record last year, it’s worth re-visiting one reason why stocks aren’t the economy, and might never have been. That’s the idea of concentration. My colleagues’ [story](yesterday noted that the Big Five stocks’ combined value is now 23% higher than their February peak while the rest of the market is still 7% lower. One way to look at it is this reflects the winner-takes-all nature of tech businesses. A recession also has a tendency to strengthen the hand of the strongest firms that are better equipped to weather it. Another possibility is that the shift toward index trackers has ignited a self-reinforcing cycle in which money flows into these funds, it mechanically has to put more cash into the heavyweights and thus they rise further, making active managers look even more incompetent. This is self-reinforcing because a market in which gains are heavily concentrated in a handful of winners is one that is even harder to beat for active managers since they tend to be underweight the largest names. But here’s an even more sobering perspective: Stock gains have always been concentrated. About 58% of 26,168 stocks reduced shareholder wealth relative to Treasury bills over their lifetimes. Because of that skewness, it’s hard for any active manager to pick the right combination of stocks. In that sense what we’re seeing may be nothing new. Follow Bloomberg's Justina Lee on Twitter at [@justinaknope]( Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close.  Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](.  You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things newsletter. [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022