5 things to start your day

[Bloomberg]( Follow Us //link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/19942928.240857/aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmNvbS9idXNpbmVzcw/582c8673566a94262a8b49bdBf7a5e130 [Get the newsletter]( Trump sees signs of a peak in U.S. outbreak, oil producers set to meet, and stocks rally. Light at the end of the tunnel President Donald Trump said he is seeing signs that the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. [may be leveling off](, while warning of a “[very deadly period](” over the next two weeks. The number of daily fatalities in New York, the epicenter of American infections, dropped slightly to 594 yesterday. Governor Andrew Cuomo said it was [too early to call]( a plateau in the state. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was hospitalized yesterday as a “[precautionary measure](” as he struggles to recover from the virus. Elsewhere in Europe, there continue to be indications that authorities are [getting the pandemic under control]( with fewer new cases reported in Italy, Germany, France and Spain. More stimulus Government spending and central bank actions aimed at cushioning the economic toll of the coronavirus are mounting. In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government will deploy a [two-phase stimulus package]( to help workers and businesses as the country seems set to introduce [states of emergency]( in the worst-hit areas. Singapore unveiled a[third package]( of economic support measures. The government in Spain is aiming to roll out [basic income]( soon, and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi hopes to introduce the next U.S. stimulus package “[later this month](.”  EU finance ministers are set to meet tomorrow to reach a consensus on proposals for a [region-wide bailout](. Sponsored Content by [Masterworks]( [The art market is having a moment. With a projected 53% total cap growth by 2026, that far exceeds Goldman’s projection for U.S. markets. Beyond that, art tends to hold its value even in bear markets. Invest directly in art with Masterworks, an investment platform delivering historical returns of 8–30%.](  OPEC++ A meeting of OPEC and its allies, originally scheduled for today, has been moved to Thursday as global oil producers try to reach an [agreement on cutting production]( following the collapse of crude prices. President Trump said he didn’t think he would need to impose tariffs on imported oil to protect domestic producers, but he said [he would do it if he had to](. One Russian policymaker said that his country and Saudi Arabia are “[very, very close](” to a deal while analysts suggest that even a cut in output by around 10 million barrels per day would not be enough to help remove the current glut estimated at 35 million barrels. All this makes for another volatile session for oil, with a barrel of West Texas Intermediate for May delivery trading at $27.50, [paring an earlier loss of as much as 11%](. Markets rally The early signs that there may be some easing of the virus outbreak are helping global markets start the week on an optimistic note. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 2.6% while Japan’s Topix index closed 3.9% higher. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 2.9% higher at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time, with the rally [led by automakers and travel stocks](. S&P 500 futures pointed to a [bounce at the open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 0.665% and gold gained. Coming up… Banks must submit their capital plans today for the [Fed’s stress tests]( as they try to prove they can withstand a hypothetical disaster just as a real one unfolds. Almost all of today’s events center around the Federal Reserve as they offer another total of $1.5 trillion in liquidity across three repo operations, while the central bank also opens the [temporary swap operation]( for foreign monetary institutions. What we've been reading This is what's caught our eye over the weekend. - Odd Lots: Tom Barrack on the [crisis in the commercial real estate market](. - The No. 1 source of stock demand [is a goner](, for years to come. - Global GDP tracker shows [recession started in March](. - Virus spurs [global free-for-all]( over $597 billion medical trade. - Four [Citadel portfolio managers]( leave after market dives. - When, and how, does the [coronavirus pandemic end](? - Why do matter particles [come in threes](? And finally, here’s what Joe's interested in this morning The problem with the U.S. dollar is not that its fundamentals are too weak, but that they're too strong. [As the fund manager Eric Lonergan has written](, a currency is kind of like a language or a social network. What makes it good -- first and foremost -- is that it can be extensively used. There's all kinds of weird things about English, such as its unpredictable spelling and pronunciation, but people learn it all over the world because other people speak it. Facebook might be a privacy nightmare and a vector of fake news, but if you want to share photos and information with a wide network of friends and family, it's basically the only game in town. And so it is with the dollar. It's stable, liquid and widely accepted. The network effects are phenomenal. As Mark Carney said last year at Jackson Hole, [the dollar is too good](: Its position hasn't gone anywhere, even as the U.S. shrinks as a share of global GDP. It then creates situations where the Fed might want to tighten monetary policy, but that causes real problems for the rest of the world [such as during the taper tantrum](. Or in a situation like now, where everyone is desperate for the greenback because their debt is denominated in it and their revenue has fallen off a cliff but only the Fed can create the currency out of thin air. As such it seems possible that this crisis could mark the very early beginning of the end of the U.S. dollar's global singular role. At least at the margins, the U.S. (and other countries) will seek to reshore more manufacturing after the logistics gaps that this crisis has exposed. Everyone's talking it up as an obvious thing to do. It might be overhyped or overstated. But it's hard to imagine there won't be some effort in that direction. That will deprive the rest of the world of dollars due to lower exports. Tourism will also go way down for a long time. And furthermore, export-dependent countries around the world will have just seen their dollar-based revenues get incinerated in a manner of a few weeks. This may lead to a rethink of export-dependent growth models. With Facebook, you can actually delete your account, and find some other way to share photos, like email. You'll probably just have a smaller circle, mostly consisting of close family and friends. And so it is with world trade. If you want to tighten your circle, either in terms of your source of goods or money, your need to borrow and hold dollars may become a little less important. Like Bloomberg's Five Things? [Subscribe for unlimited access]( to trusted, data-based journalism in 120 countries around the world and gain expert analysis from exclusive daily newsletters, The Bloomberg Open and The Bloomberg Close.  Before it’s here, it’s on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals can’t find anywhere else. [Learn more](.  You received this message because you are subscribed to Bloomberg's Five Things newsletter. 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