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Xi says China will meet its economic goals, Sanders tightens hold on Democratic nomination, and Europeâs manufacturing slump worsens.
Expressing optimismÂ
President Xi Jinping said that China has the [ability to accomplish its economic growth]( and social development goals, and will âdefeat the epidemic.â Xiâs optimism is not shared by economists outside the country who have [cut their growth forecasts]( as the effects from the outbreak are worse than first thought. The toll from the virus, now [named COVID-19]( by the World Health Organisation, [continues to rise]( with latest figures showing more than 1,100 people have died and [over 45,000 confirmed cases worldwide](.Â
Sanders wins
Results from the New Hampshire primary showed [Bernie Sanders leading]( by more than one percentage point over second place Pete Buttigieg. The strong performance by Amy Klobuchar, who finished third, was one of the big surprises of the night. Joe Biden finished fifth, with his campaign [apparently in freefall](. Tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang [dropped out of the race](.Â
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SlumpÂ
Manufacturing in the euro area ended 2019 with the [deepest slump in almost four years](, with industrial production dropping 2.1% in December from a year earlier. Worryingly for policymakers, the dismal numbers came in the period ahead of the COVID-19 outbreak, which means any quick turnaround is unlikely. Those same fears are also starting to edge up for the U.S., with Bloomberg Economicsâ recession prediction model showing an increase in the chances of a reversal in growth. They do, however, point to a [raft of temporary factors](, rather than anything structural in the forecast.Â
Markets rise
Virus fears and manufacturing slowdowns are not enough to derail the [continuing good run for global equities](. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.5% while Japanâs Topix index closed broadly unchanged. In Europe the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.4% higher at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time with cyclical stocks posting the biggest gains. S&P 500 futures pointed to [more green at the open]( and the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.609%. Greeceâs 10-year bond yield [traded below 1%]( for the first time ever.Â
Coming upâ¦
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is in Congress for his [second day of testimony](. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker is also due to talk on the economic outlook this morning. OPEC will publish its monthly market review that will be closely watched for forecasts of the [drop in demand from China](. The U.S. monthly budget statement for January is published at 2:00 p.m. Cisco Systems Inc. and CVS Health Corp. are among the companies reporting earnings.Â
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- Roger Stone brouhaha is a [warning signal to Giuliani prosecutors](.Â
- Nissan [sues Carlos Ghosn]( for $91 million in damages.Â
- Erdogan escalates [threats against Assad loyalists]( in Idlib.
- City of Londonâs post-Brexit outlook [is dimming](.Â
- Italy is facing the [worst demographic crisis]( since World War I.Â
- Tech startups are flooding Kenya with apps offering [high-interest loans](.
- Why are bats [so deadly](?Â
And finally, hereâs what Luke's interested in this morning
Perhaps the most remarkable phrase to come out of Fed Chair Jerome Powellâs testimony Tuesday was his admission that the [Fed would âneverâ]( say it had accomplished the goal of making sure anyone who wants to work and can work will have a job available to them. Itâs the latest in a series of rhetorical wins for activists who have tried to ensure the maximum-employment component of the dual mandate doesnât get short shrift to the price-stability part, through a ceiling for the job market thatâs built unduly low. Thatâs because [many]( (but [not all]() [current]( Fed officials in recent years have done just that: declared the economy to be âat or beyond full employment.â So did the Powell-chaired central bankâs February 2018 [Monetary Policy Report](. The Chairâs recent remarks speak to a struggle over how to appropriately define full employment that has [persisted for decades](, and [signs]( of a [shift]( in [communications]( from the central bank on this front. There are also some potential practical implications. The Fedâs prior mentality, which was acted upon via multiple rate hikes even in the relative absence of an aggressive move upwards in price pressures, presupposes that the magnitude of the labor market gains that have been made since were not possible or sustainable. Never declaring full employment has been achieved would reinforce the view that realized inflation is a prerequisite for tightening and constitute a more structural change to the central bankâs reaction function. More broadly, if the Fed now isnât ever able to say itâs effectively accomplished an expansive but intuitive definition of one of the tasks Congress has set for them, this may start to shift some of the onus on achieving this objective back to the legislative entity.
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