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Itâs jobs day, Iran denies downing plane, and Trump impeachment trial may get Pelosi green light.Â
Payrolls
The Labor Department will deliver the[last jobs report of the 2010s]( at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time this morning. It is forecast to show [employers added 160,000 positions in December](, well down from Novemberâs surprise 266,000 but pretty much bang on the average for the past ten years. Unemployment is expected to hold at 3.5% and the annual pace of wage gains to remain at 3.1%.Â
Iran denial
Western governments say they have intelligence showing that [a missile shot down]( the Boeing Co. 737-800 passenger jet that crashed in Iran on Wednesday. Authorities in Tehran have called on those governments to produce proof, with the head of the countryâs civil aviation organization saying Iran is certain that the flight wasnât shot down. While shares in Boeing rose yesterday as it seemed less likely that a technical fault caused the disaster, the problems with the grounded 737 Max came back to the fore with the release of internal company messages that described the plane as â[designed by clowns, who in turn are supervised by monkeys](.â
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Impeachment trial
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi looks ready to drop her resistance to starting [President Donald Trumpâs impeachment trial]( though she has yet to secure major concessions from Senate Republicans. Yesterday she said she would âsoonâ send the two articles of impeachment to the Senate, which some lawmakers took to mean within the coming days amid [increasing frustration on both sides over the delay](. Also in Washington yesterday the House voted to curb President Donald Trumpâs power to strike Iran in a [mostly symbolic move]( that is unlikely to make it through the Senate.Â
Markets quiet
After a busy week, global equities are much calmer this morning as investors await the U.S. jobs number. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.5% while Japanâs Topix index closed 0.4% higher. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index had gained 0.1% by 5:50 a.m. with [Ryanair results]( lifting the travel sector. S&P 500 pre-payrolls futures [pointed to another higher open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.856% and gold continued its slide.Â
Coming upâ¦
Today is also jobs day in Canada, with economists forecasting 25,000 new positions after Novemberâs surprise drop of over 70,000. The final reading of November wholesale inventories is published at 10:00 a.m. At midday the U.S. Department of Agriculture releases its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. The Baker Hughes rigcount is at 1:00 p.m.Â
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- In an [all-out cyberwar](, Iran would be a formidable foe.
- Life on the run is [proving expensive]( for Carlos Ghosn.Â
- Brexit cost after âBoris bounceâ [is still $260 billion](.Â
- Hong Kongers show signs of depression and [post-traumatic stress disorder](.
- [Key-person risk]( lessons from European funds.
- Coalâs fortunes [look bleak](.
- Physicists are starting to think there is something [wrong in their models of the universe](.Â
And finally, hereâs what Luke's interested in this morning
The story of the year in credit markets is the decline of more than 20 basis points in high-yield energy spreads, versus a narrowing of less than five basis points for ex-energy. Thatâs despite West Texas Intermediate futures being down since the start of the year â making a stark contrast to the start of 2019, when oil futures posted their biggest annual gain since 2016, yet junk-rated energy bonds underperformed by 10 percentage points. Elevated U.S. corporate indebtedness is the biggest visible imbalance that threatens to serve as the catalyst that brings the record U.S. expansion to an end. It may be only mildly controversial to suggest that the market reaction to the U.S. airstrike against a top Iranian general helped reduce the vulnerability of the weakest link in the most susceptible sector by aiding refinancing opportunities -- or at the very least, providing a can-kicking opportunity for some of these firms. The window for junk issuers in the energy sector may have gotten a little wider thanks to the temporary fillip to crude prices, in the wake of rising U.S.-Iranian tensions. It helps that producers are [actively hedging](, too. Nearly all of the energy issuers that came to market this week will be paying out higher coupons for this fresh debt than on their existing obligations. Thatâs the trade-off for pushing out the maturity wall further into the future. Itâs a bit like dealing with a blister on your foot if youâve taken up running to improve your cardiovascular system. Sure, thereâs a persistent pain while youâre awake, but itâs now easier to sleep peacefully at night.
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