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Impeachment process delayed, new head of Bank of England and a busy markets session in store.Â
Not yet
House Speaker Nancy Pelosiâs [delay in handing over the impeachment case]( to the Senate risks diluting the Democrat case that the issue is a [matter of urgent national interest](. Lawyers close to President Donald Trump explored whether the delay could mean that the president hasnât been impeached at all, while Democrats said the issue would be resolved in early January when both chambers return to Washington. Away from the impeachment headlines, there was some work done on Capitol Hill ahead of the break, with the House passing the new [Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade accord](. The Senate also passed two spending bills that take the risks of a [government shutdown]( off the table.Â
New head
The next governor of the Bank of England [will be Andrew Bailey]( who is currently head of the U.K.âs Financial Conduct Authority. He will take the position on March 16, with Mark Carney remaining as head of the bank until then. This means Carney will lead the bank through the U.K.âs exit from the European Union [which will occur on Jan 31](. That exit date is almost guaranteed now that Prime Minister Boris Johnson has such a [large majority in the House of Commons](. There was some good economic news for Johnson this morning when U.K. [third-quarter growth]( was revised higher.
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Quadruple witching
It may be a busy U.S. session in markets later today when options and futures on stocks and indexes all expire at the same time, an event that usually drives trading volumes higher. Speaking of market mechanics, there was some relief for the repo market yesterday when the New York Federal Reserveâs $35 billion two-week liquidity operation covering the year-end period [was undersubscribed](. While there remains a premium for Dec 31. funding in markets, the Fed will run more operations ahead of the new year to meet needs.Â
Markets rise
While there are some fireworks expected later in the session, global equities are generally fairly quiet so far. Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped less than 0.1% while Japanâs Topix index closed down 0.2%. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.3% higher at 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time with defensive stocks among the best performing. S&P 500 futures pointed to a [small rise at the open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.945% and gold eased.Â
Coming upâ¦
The third reading of U.S. third-quarter GDP is published at 8:30 a.m., with Canadian retail sales of October also due at that time. The PCE report at 10:00 a.m. is expected to show there was a pick up in consumer spending in November, while the core PCE deflator may have slowed to 1.5%. The University of Michigan sentiment survey is also published at 10:00 a.m. Blackberry Ltd. is among the companies reporting earnings.Â
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- What to expect [from European stocks in 2020](.Â
- A [funny thing happened]( on the way to the stock market record.
- The hacker who [took down a country](.Â
- Chinaâs Xi [plans to skip Davos](, deflating hopes for Trump summit.Â
- Wind and solar farms are putting European nuclear plants out of [work](.Â
- Wall Streetâs machine of silence [stopped a #MeToo revolution](.Â
- Worldâs [oldest fossil trees]( uncovered in New York.
Five Things will return on January 2
And finally, hereâs what Luke's interested in this morning
One big fear for portfolio managers is having to completely tear up the asset-allocation playbook â the idea that bonds wonât provide an effective offset to stocks in risk-off episodes. Such concern was heightened heading into 2019, given that the year before had seen both stocks and bonds deliver negative returns, with the two biggest bouts of market turmoil linked to incidences of rates rising briskly. This year should allay some anxiety on that front: the degree of downside capture provided by U.S. Treasuries was nothing short of amazing. The 10-year yield is down roughly 75 basis points year-to-date. However, if you count only sessions in which the S&P 500 fell at least 0.75%, the 10-year yield is down a whopping 140 basis points, and then some. Duration served as a highly effective cushion in the rare instances when things werenât breaking equitiesâ way. As such, a basic 60/40 portfolio is enjoying its best year since 1998 and AQRâs high-volatility risk parity fund is poised for its best year versus the S&P 500 on a total-return basis since inception. Inflation, obviously, would be the big potential disruptor to both asset classes, but it isnât high on the list of imminent market boogeyman, having been in hiding for so long.
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Before itâs here, itâs on the Bloomberg Terminal. Find out more about how the Terminal delivers information and analysis that financial professionals canât find anywhere else. [Learn more](.
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