5 things to start your day

[Bloomberg]( Trump’s mini-deal not enough to lift gloom, earnings season kicks off, and Brexit not fixed yet. Stayin’ alive China’s agreement to boost agricultural purchases and the White House’s decision to hold off on increasing tariffs on the country, [sealed with a handshake on Friday](, might be enough to keep prospects alive for a comprehensive deal between the two sides, but it isn’t sufficient for a reassessment of the [global growth outlook](. Adding to those doubts this morning is news that China wants [further talks as soon as this month]( to iron out the details of the “phase one” deal before signing it. A health check for the world economy is due tomorrow when the International Monetary Fund revises its growth [forecast](. Earnings season Earnings season will provide another gauge of economic strength and an insight into how dividend payments are holding up in the face of [disappearing profit growth](. For the big U.S. banks, the focus will be on how they’re [keeping costs in line]( in an environment where interest rates remain lower than previously forecast. JPMorgan Chase & Co. gets the ball rolling tomorrow, quickly followed by Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. Sponsor Content by PIMCO PIMCO Cyclical Outlook: Window of Weakness The global economy is about to enter a period of vulnerability. Will it end in recession or recovery? [Read more.](  Details, details The European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said that the U.K.’s proposals for a deal lacked detail, putting both sides in a [race against time]( to finalize an accord ahead of the EU summit on Thursday. The prime minister’s coalition allies, Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party, also [expressed reservations]( about the plan. The pound, which had a [spectacular rally]( at the end of last week, is [giving back some ground]( this morning. Markets mixed Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index added 0.8%. Japan is closed for a holiday, with the country starting the cleanup from the [most powerful typhoon]( to hit in decades. The rapidly evaporating optimism about an imminent trade or Brexit deal is putting pressure on European equities, with the Stoxx 600 Index down 1.2% by 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time. S&P 500 futures pointed to a [decline at the open]( and gold was higher. The Treasury market is closed for Columbus Day. Back on track One month after the attack on its facilities, Saudi Aramco has [returned production levels]( to their pre-Sept. 14 levels. Brent crude, which approached $70 a barrel in the wake of the strike on the company’s oil processing infrastructure, is [trading below $60 a barrel]( this morning. The timing of the recovery is very important for Aramco as the company is expected to give approval for its [mammoth IPO this week](. What we've been reading This is what's caught our eye over the weekend. - Odd Lots: Richard Koo explains why governments still haven't [learned the lessons of Japan](. - WeWork [weighs bailout]( that hands control to SoftBank. - [Hunter Biden]( steps down from Chinese board. - Brexit and the decline of [brand Britannia](. - [Spanish separatists jailed]( for up to 13 years. - Kim Jong Un may be hiding a [hog apocalypse]( from the world. - [Banerjee, Duflo and Kremer]( win the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. And finally, here’s what Joe's interested in this morning I want to turn the clock back to Oct. 1 for a moment. That day, investors were [digesting news]( of a historic deflation in Korea, weak data from Spain and Italy, and Eurozone manufacturing data showing a deep slump. And yet yields on government bonds were higher throughout the day. I remember wondering if this was a sign market sentiment had turned and bonds (which have been on a massive tear all year) would struggle to rally on sour data. Then the U.S. Manufacturing ISM hit and that blew up the narrative. It came in much weaker than expected, and 10-year yields in the U.S. shot straight down. Since then, however, rates have been clawing back up, culminating in a strong move Thursday and Friday [amid optimism over a "phase 1" U.S.-China trade deal](. So today I wonder whether my initial view that Oct. 1 marked an important indicator for the bond market was more or less correct. An inability to rally on bad news was a marked change from the euphoric bond buying of late August. We'll see if the shift persists. 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