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China tries to manage expectations ahead of trade talks, more whistle-blowers come forward, and Brexit pessimism increases.Â
Narrow scope
The worldâs two largest economies are going into this weekâs trade talks with very different views on what a possible resolution would look like. Vice Premier Liu He, who will lead the Chinese delegation in high-level discussions that begin on Thursday, said he would bring an offer that [wonât include commitments]( on industrial policy or government subsidy reforms. Analysts say China sees the U.S. hand in negotiations weakened by both the effect of the trade war on [U.S. manufacturing jobs]( and President Donald Trumpâs impeachment fight. Speaking on Friday, the president said that any deal agreed would have to be â100% for us.â
Impeachment pressure
The lead attorney representing the intelligence official at the center of the House impeachment investigation said that his firm is now representing â[multiple whistle-blowers](â in connection with the matter. President Trump responded to the revelation in his [customary style](, saying on Twitter that the âdeep stateâ is âgoing to the benchâ for reinforcements. While news on the investigation dominates politics in Washington, the White House said yesterday that the U.S. would not stop a [Turkish advance into Northern Syria](, a major policy shift which is seen as abandoning [Americaâs wartime Kurdish allies]( in the country.Â
Hope fades
The seemingly never-ending Brexit saga continues to not end as talks between the U.K. and the European Union [stall](, with EU leaders asking for [significant changes to Prime Minister Boris Johnsonâs plan](, while he continues to insist that Britain will [leave the bloc on Oct. 31](. With time running out to secure a deal or an extension, investors are looking for signs of weakness in the [gilt market](, while the Bank of England dusts off its [crisis playbook](.Â
Markets wait
Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index was broadly unchanged, with Japanâs Topix index also flat. Chinese traders do not return from their week-long holiday until tomorrow. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index fluctuated between gains and losses, and was again trading mostly unchanged by 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time. S&P 500 futures [were lower]( as investors weighed the latest trade comments from China, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.520% and gold edged down.Â
Coming upâ¦
Yesterday, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George, a confirmed hawk, said she would be prepared to support a [further reduction in interest rates]( should she see evidence of a sharper economic slowdown. This morning we hear from Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari, one of the most dovish U.S. central bank policymakers. The Supreme Court formally starts its new term today, and [Nobel Prize season]( has kicked off with the award for medicine. There is very little in the way of hard economic data on the calendar, with only consumer credit due at 3:00 p.m.Â
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the weekend.
- The Odd Lots [variety show](.Â
- JPMorgan calculates that the market correction [could be about half over](.
- HSBC to [cut up to 10,000 jobs]( in cost-saving drive, FT reports.
- China has added more than [100 tons of gold]( to reserves since December.
- More German lenders are passing [negative rates]( on to retail clients.
- Union says talks with GM have [taken a turn for the worse](.
- Not long ago, the center of the Milky Way [exploded](.Â
And finally, hereâs what Sid's interested in this morning
Centrists arenât cool in politics -- nor in markets. But the middle-of-the-road view that we are in a mini-slowdown within a broader expansion has a lot of merit. For one, data on Friday only confirmed that U.S. households are enjoying low unemployment and wage growth -- on top of cheap mortgage refinancing costs and relatively comfortable savings. Meanwhile, everyone seems to think the eurozone economy is nothing more than a derivative of German manufacturing which is undergoing broad weakness, with Monday data adding to the gloom. Still, domestic sectors in Europe like business services and retail are far from flashing Armageddon risk, while the labor market and financial conditions also remain strong. Could the trade war take investment into negative territory, spurring a further slowdown in consumption and exports? Sure. But that could hit capital more than labor, with the relative resilience of the latter speeding up the recovery. If so, it would recall the varying slowdowns investors have already weathered this cycle, like the PMI contractions of 2016 and the recessions for corporate earnings between 2014 and 2015. That's to say nothing of the energy bear market and associated high-yield credit explosions. Oh, and the small matter of the euro sovereign-bank doom loop.
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