Frozen out

[Balance of Power]( From [Bloomberg Politics]( [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( [SUBSCRIBE [Subscribe]](  Some of the European Union’s [biggest supporters]( are not even in the bloc. The eagerness of Balkan nations like Kosovo and Serbia to embrace Brussels — where they see the bright lights of more jobs and investment — is palpable. But there’s a big elephant in the room: Serbia does not recognize Kosovo, which broke away in 2008, almost a decade after they fought a bloody ethnic war. Until it does, the EU will not even begin to entertain membership. As [Jasmina Kuzmanovic]( reports, the issue will dominate Sunday’s elections in Kosovo, a wide-open contest among three or four parties who agree talks with Serbia must happen but are split over terms for even beginning them. Serbia is due for elections in the spring. Add into the mix greater uncertainty about the role of [the big powers]( in the region. Russia backs Serbia and the U.S. supports Kosovo. But even there the game is potentially changing, with Washington consumed by Donald Trump’s impeachment wrangling and the 2020 election, and Russia seeking to slow Serbia’s EU engagement. Despite the modern cafes and bars in Kosovo’s capital, Pristina, the region feels stuck in the past, with ethnic tensions still lurking just below the surface. EU integration would probably help — but that remains a distant prospect. — [Rosalind Mathieson]( The statue of former U.S. President Bill Clinton in Pristina, Kosovo. Click [here]( for Bloomberg’s most compelling political images from the past week. Photographer: Armend Nimani/AFP/Getty Images Global Headlines [Brexit wrangle]( | U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Brexit offer to the EU landed badly in Brussels, which said he had a week to improve it. Exasperated Irish politicians pointed out that they have repeatedly rejected the sort of border checks Johnson proposes. Despite his office declaring it his final offer, sources say Johnson is considering accepting the EU’s proposal to avoid a hard border in Ireland, but with a time limit. [Fundraising tool]( | Trump’s fundraising strategy shows he views the impeachment fight more as a political battle than a legal one. Since House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced an inquiry on Sept. 24, Trump’s campaign has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on Facebook and Twitter ads mentioning impeachment that direct supporters to the president's re-election fund. - Two top American diplomats [tried to strike]( a deal on behalf of Trump for Ukraine’s leader to investigate (discredited) allegations of wrongdoing by Joe Biden and his son in return for improved relations with the U.S., according to documents released by House Democrats. - Michael Pompeo remains one of Trump’s most prominent defenders even as the Ukraine matter [threatens to engulf]( the secretary of state. - Click [here to read how]( Trump is relying on the same tactics that he used to fight Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation. [Facing the law]( | Protesters gathered in downtown Hong Kong, occupying some streets, as leader Carrie Lam invoked emergency powers for the first time in more than 50 years to ban face masks for demonstrators. Lam said the move was necessary to quell weeks of increased violence and would help police enforce the law. Face masks have become symbols of resistance among protesters who fear retribution if they’re identified. [Fuel-price backlash]( | President Lenin Moreno declared a state of emergency in Ecuador after widespread protests over his decision to end diesel and gasoline subsidies. Demonstrators clogged key highways with vehicles and burning tires. Blocked routes to Quito’s airport forced American Airlines, Iberia, Air France, and KLM to reroute flights. [Portugal votes]( | Populism and factionalism have disrupted much of Europe, but Portugal may give a lesson in political stability on Sunday when Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Costa is likely to win another four-year term. Polls indicate his Socialist Party, which governed without a majority, may need to rely on other partners this time too. After five consecutive years of growth, Costa’s biggest challenge will be a sharply slowing economy. Pop quiz, readers (no cheating!). Which country’s Green party saw its support triple at elections this week, a sign that global climate protests led by Swedish campaigner Greta Thunberg are shifting Europe’s political goalposts. Send your best guesses to balancepower@bloomberg.net. You can also tell us how we’re doing or what we’re missing. What to Watch - Biden’s campaign [said he’d raised]( $15.2 million during the third quarter, putting him behind lower-polling candidates Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg. Fundraising reports are due Oct. 15. - Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte [may address]( a parliamentary panel today on secret meetings between U.S. Attorney General William Barr and Italian intelligence chiefs that were reportedly part of a U.S. investigation into the genesis of the special counsel probe into Trump’s possible ties to Russia. [And finally]( … Hong Kong and Shenzhen are neighboring cities whose proximity and growth prospects mean they are becoming entwined, as are the competing systems that govern them. While Shenzhen has flourished under China’s Communist Party, many Hong Kongers are protesting to maintain the political freedoms promised to them when Britain handed the territory back in 1997. As Bloomberg reports, the two cities offer competing visions of China’s future, and the jury is out on which will prevail.  Travelers walk past a People’s Liberation Army advertisement in Shenzhen near the border with Hong Kong. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg   You received this message because you are subscribed to the Bloomberg Politics newsletter Balance of Power. You can tell your friends to [sign up here](.  [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022