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Trumpâs comments fuel impeachment probe, more warning signs for Europeâs economy, and little hope for a Brexit breakthrough.
Close to a spy
President Donald Trumpâs recorded comments at a closed-door gathering with U.S. diplomats seem set to [add fuel to Democratsâ impeachment drive](. Trump is seen describing the whistle-blower as âclose to a spyâ and demanded to know who the person is, in a [video of the event]( obtained by Bloomberg News. The release of the complaint and testimony by acting intelligence chief Joseph Maguire yesterday raised the specter of a White House â[cover up](â according to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff said it gave âa pretty good road map of allegations we need to investigate.â The S&P 500 Index closed lower for the [fourth time in five days]( as the political turmoil damped demand for risk assets.Â
Four-year low
The European Commissionâs monthly economic sentiment indicator dropped to the [lowest level since 2015](, with the industrial confidence sub-index plumbing a six-year trough. A slowdown in Germany continues to be one of the biggest drivers of the worsening performance, with the DIW Institute forecasting the regionâs largest economy is [already in a recession](. European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said policy makers still have [room to cut rates further]( if needed.
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Little hope
Even by the standards of recent EU-U.K. meetings, [expectations for a breakthrough]( at todayâs meeting between the two sides are very low. European officials have all but given up hope of finding a way forward in the coming weeks as Prime Minister Boris Johnsonâs inflammatory rhetoric against his domestic opponents is seen as a hindrance. There was some good news for the embattled prime minister as he won a [High Court case in Northern Ireland]( which had sought to have a no-deal Brexit declared a violation of the Good Friday peace accord. The pound weakened after Bank of England policy maker Michael Saunders said a [rate cut may be needed]( even if a no-deal Brexit is avoided.Â
Markets mixed
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.6% while Japanâs Topix index closed 1.2% lower after inflation data came in [below expectations](. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.5% higher by 5:45 a.m. Eastern Time with miners leading the gains, while Londonâs FTSE 100 Index was the regionâs best performer due to the falling pound. S&P 500 futures pointed to a [gain at the open](, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.71% and gold dropped.Â
Coming upâ¦
The August PCE report, published at 8:30 a.m., is expected to show a jump in income growth to 0.4% from a month earlier, with spending growth softening to 0.3% and the PCE inflation gauge increasing to 1.8%. Durable goods orders, published at the same time, are forecast to drop 1.0%. Consumer sentiment figures for September are released at 10:00 a.m. with the latest Baker Hughes rig count at 1:00 p.m.Â
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- Peloton, Endeavor duds give IPO bankers [a black eye](.Â
- Airbus CEO warns of [lose-lose game]( in trade war over jetliners.
- Foreigners [ignore Brexit]( as swaps help juice sterling bond sales.
- Credit Suisse to decide on [executivesâ fate]( early next week.Â
- How an oil giant tries to [thrive in chaos](.
- The [great index apocalypse]( comes for bond managers.Â
- Scientists are one step closer to a fully [functioning quantum computer](.Â
And finally, hereâs what Luke's interested in this morning
The U.S. stock market has a dependency issue: it canât go up unless Treasury yields do too. Thatâs only a mild exaggeration. For the past two months, over 75% of days in which the S&P 500 has gained coincided with a rising 10-year Treasury yield. Prior to that, the year-to-date share of âstocks gain, yields rise tooâ was 55%. Why August as a demarcation line? Well, itâs when the 10-year yield cracked below 2% on the heels of the Federal Reserveâs commencement of an easing cycle. Itâs also when investors began to really throw in the towel on the prospect for reflation over the next year, judging by the slimming spread between 10-year yields and the 10-year, one-year forward rate. For software stocks â the most important contributors to the bull run â itâs striking how much relative performance over the past year has been linked to bond-market dynamics. The thinking here is that falling yields reflect concern about future global activity, so stocks that have shown a structurally superior earnings profile (growth stocks, like software) are prized. If the equity market were to become a little more yield-agnostic, this would likely be a positive for risk bulls. Relying on rising yields to power the market higher amid a backdrop of deflating domestic confidence, an ongoing Fed easing cycle, an endless barrage of conflicting trade headlines, lackluster activity abroad, and now a potential impeachment of U.S. President Donald Trump would seem akin to swimming against the tide. The story of 2019 for the 10-year yield has been a tendency to trade in 20-basis point ranges then knife downwards. Perhaps a period of Treasury yields consolidating as earnings season approaches will give stocks a chance to craft their own narratives.
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