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Itâs decision day at the Fed, money markets are set to get another cash infusion, and Iran passed a note to America.Â
Fed day
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to reduce interest rates by a quarter percentage point for a second straight meeting amid slowing global growth on the heels of President Donald Trumpâs trade war. [Markets have priced in]( nearly one percentage point of easing over the next year despite mixed monetary signals. Chairman Jerome Powellâs post-decision press conference will offer clues into the Fedâs thinking. The decision will set the stage for policy announcements from Bank of Japan, Bank Indonesia and Bank of England due Thursday.
Repo rescue
Fed officials are set to inject [another $75 billion of cash]( to the market Wednesday morning after funding shortages drove the rate on one-day loans backed by Treasury bonds -- known as repurchase agreements, or repos --  [to as high]( as 10%. The first cash infusion in more than a decade came Tuesday as an overnight liquidity squeeze threatened everything from Treasury bond trading to lending to companies and consumers. Itâs a structural money problem thatâs hard to ignore. While the spike wasnât evidence of any broader crisis, it highlighted how the Fed was losing control over short-term lending, one of its key tools for implementing monetary policy.Â
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It wasnât me
Iran sent the U.S. a note denying it had a role in attacks on Saudi oil facilities and warning that it would respond to any action against it. Saudi Arabiaâs defense ministry said it will [present evidence of involvement]( by the Islamic Republic at a news conference Wednesday, while Iranian President Hassan Rouhani insisted that the attack was a âwarning and a lessonâ from Yemeni rebels. Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo is due to hold talks in the kingdom on Wednesday â and it isnât obvious how the U.S. can effectively retaliate against a country that is [already under maximum](economic sanctions. Further complicating the U.S. position is the potential loss of a key ally in Israel as Benjamin Netanyahuâs [hold on](power looks increasingly precarious.
Markets
Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.12% and Japanâs Topix index closed 0.49% lower. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 0.6% higher at 6:18 a.m. Eastern Time after closing marginally lower on Tuesday. S&P 500 futures signaled a small drop at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was 1.77% and gold was flat. Oil stabilized on signs Saudi Arabia is quickly restoring production following a debilitating weekend attack.
Coming up...
Itâs the second of three days of hearings on the legality of Prime Minister Boris Johnsonâs [decision to suspend Parliament](and whatever the outcome the risk of a no-deal Brexit remains high. Updates are due on U.S. mortgage applications and housing starts.
What we've been reading
This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
- FedEx tumbled after profit outlook [darkens on trade]( tensions.
- Itâs[time to dig into](the geography of economic complexity.
- Virgin Atlantic [plans 84 new routes]( with Heathrow slots windfall
- âThis Is Crazy!â: [Repo madness]( sends Wall Street reelingÂ
- More investors think global [yield lows are behind us](.
- [Juncker says](no-deal Brexit risk is now âpalpable.â
- Amazonâs Alexa mastered [Hindi and Hinglish]( in time for Diwali.
And finally, hereâs what Joe's interested in this morning
Happy Fed Day. While the [central bank is expected to cut interest rates]( today, we're at a moment of growing skepticism about the power of monetary policy, with increasing calls for governments around the world to engage in expansionary fiscal policy. This shift was demonstrated most strikingly last month when Larry Summers -- one of the ultimate figures in mainstream New Keynesian theory -- [went on a tweet storm about the limits of central banking]( and the need for a monetary-to-fiscal handoff. With rates near zero, GDP growth sluggish, and inflation mild around the developed world, there's definitely an "everyone's turning MMT" vibe in the air. On this note, however, it's worth reading a [recent article for the Institute for New Economic Thinking]( from the Dutch economist Servaas Storm, examining Larry Summers' about-face. Storm agrees that fiscal stimulus is far more robust than monetary, however, the difference he has with Summer is that he's always thought this to be the case. His views have nothing to do with the fact that policy rates are near the zero lower bound. The piece is very thorough and argues that the impotence of monetary policy is not some recent phenomenon, but one that goes back years. As such, there remains an important divide within the fiscalist camp, between those that see the need for more spending as a product of the current condition, and those who simply see fiscal authorities as the rightful guarantors of sufficient economic demand.
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