This again?

[Bloomberg] [Fully Charged]( From [Bloomberg](   [FOLLOW US [Facebook Share]]( [Twitter Share]( [SUBSCRIBE [Subscribe]](  Hi, everyone. It's [Shira](mailto:sovide@bloomberg.net). "Super cycle" predictions are back. Kind of. Back in in 2016 and 2017, some technologists and stock analysts said Apple Inc.'s 10th anniversary iPhone line would produce something like the sales surge from the first larger-screen iPhone 6 models that came out in 2014. [It turned out]( there was no sales super cycle for the iPhone X line that launched in 2017. The eye-popping $1,000-and-up cost probably held some people back, but that oversized price did help Apple boost revenue during a year in which iPhone unit sales barely budged. Those wayward predictions make it surprising to see this idea return—albeit in a muted form that shows how times have changed for Apple and the rest of the smartphone industry. Some on Wall Street are now saying that investors are looking past the [lightly updated iPhone models]( to be unveiled next week, and [talking about 2020](. The theory: Consumers with older smartphones are holding out for what are expected to be the first iPhones that support 5G, a [new, faster wireless standard](. I'll put aside the question of whether 5G will be widely available and stable in a year, or whether normal humans care about it. Right now, a handful of tech geeks have bought 5G-capable phones for the giggles of using them in the [two square blocks]( where 5G is operational. Consulting firm Ovum predicts there will be 720,000 5G mobile subscriptions this year, and about 37 million next year, according to figures cited by Bloomberg Intelligence. That is not much when you consider the 1.4 billion new smartphones sold each year. The bigger picture is there are no more super cycles in this [middle-aged phase]( of smartphones. The growth is gone. There's no turning back. New smartphone sales are on track to decline in 2019 for the third year in a row, according to researcher IDC. In the biggest smartphone markets, such as China, the U.S. and Europe, a large share of people already own smartphones, and they're typically waiting longer to replace them—on average more than three years between purchases in the U.S., according to telecom industry consultant Chetan Sharma. That is weighing down sales of new smartphones, and I find it tough to imagine the trend changing dramatically because of 5G or [folding smartphones](. The simple fact is that, for many people, a smartphone is a boring necessity like a refrigerator. It's something that gets replaced when it breaks or when you have a big life change. People don't upgrade a fridge when there's a new ice-making technology. To be fair, not all Apple-watchers are predicting a large number of upgrades resulting from 5G-capable iPhones. And even predictions of a 2020 iPhone super cycle are not very super. Piper Jaffray has estimated iPhone revenue will decline 14% in Apple's fiscal year ending later this month, inch down 1% in fiscal 2020 and then increase 2% in 2020. For comparison, iPhone revenue surged 52% in the peak year of iPhone 6 mania. Apple optimists will say that new device sales matter less for a company that is generating a [large share of growth from non-iPhone sources]( such as Apple Watches, AirPods headphones, Apple Music subscriptions and a soon-to-launch online video service. These products, though, are tied closely to the iPhone. If nothing else, selling a new iPhone gives Apple a [chance to sell more stuff]( to that consumer, and UBS has found a correlation between owning a newer iPhone and higher spending on apps. That's why it will hurt if the super cycle predictions are wrong again. —[Shira Ovide](  And here’s what you need to know in global technology news: In an agreement with regulators, YouTube will pay a relatively modest fine and stop selling personalized ads on videos meant for children. YouTube's compliance, however, relies on [technology that may not be up to the task](, and on self-reporting by video makers who have a financial incentive not to flag videos aimed at kids.  Apple has a $200 billion cash stockpile, but ultra-low borrowing costs tempted the company to [sell $7 billion in bonds](.  In jockeying over California's upcoming data privacy law, Google and other tech companies want to loosen restrictions on harnessing user information for targeted advertising, and in some cases, be[ able to share user information even if people say no](.  WeWork [added a woman]( to what has been an all-male board, and scrapped $5.9 million in compensation to its CEO for company-related trademarks that had drawn criticism.  An Airbnb host was charged with [staging a home invasion]( to kick out unwanted guests.   Sponsored Content by [Darktrace]( As organizations embrace cloud services, the attack surface is increasing. Meanwhile, cloud-based threats are fast and unpredictable, often outpacing existing defenses. But cyber AI is changing the game. Thousands of companies use AI to detect and respond to advanced attackers in the cloud, before they do damage. [Learn what’s missing in cloud security and how cyber AI can help.](   You received this message because you are subscribed to the Bloomberg Technology newsletter Fully Charged. You can tell your friends to [sign up here](.  [Unsubscribe]( | [Bloomberg.com]( | [Contact Us]( Bloomberg L.P. 731 Lexington, New York, NY, 10022